Japan takes Hawaii

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Pearl Harbor was key to Pacific operations. Had the Navy been required to
operate from a continental port, the logistics would have been infinitely more
challenging, but not insurmountable. Just as grievous, the Pacific Fleet,
when fighting in the South Pacific, would have had the Japanese in their rear,
not a promising scenario. Basically, the war in the Pacific would have meant
taking back Hawaii first, and then moving westward. Not a pretty thought.
The main problem Japan had was of resupply.

The IJN could not have supported so many troops so far from home.

The US would have seized the other big islands in Hawaii and then use them to springboard an attack on Oahu.
The original plan the Japanese had for the Pacific War was to destroy the US Pacific Fleet, conquer a defensable perimeter and then wait for the US counter-attack. When it came, they would bloody or destroy it. At that point the US would sue for peace. The plan is almost identical to that used with Russia in 1905.

One of the big mistakes the Japanese made was making the perimeter to large to be defended with the resources available. Just too much water and not enough ships (to say nothing of the fiasco that was Japanese Merchant shipping management).

If the Japanese take Hawaii, they would have a ton of trouble supplying it. Just too far away and shipping was too tenuous. American Naval power would make it the sink hole that Guadalcanal later became. Intially, the US might even take Midway or Johnston first in the counter-attack. But the basic line that taking Hawaii would be folly for the Japanese is the thought that means most.

What will be affected would be Aus/NZ. The US will pull back for a while and they would be on their own. I think the Japanese take New Guiniea. Might even make it to Austrialian Continent. But the same problems they have in Hawaii affect them there (double because they are trying to supply Hawaii at the same time).

In the end, the Japanese become ripe for a collapse as Allied power grows and their power weakens.

Taking Hawaii is a mistake.

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