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What India / Ceylon based fleet?The only force I can see the British using to turn the odds in Malaya 1941 was their Indian/Ceylon based Fleet, If its carrier group was deployed west of Singapore it could have made raids then retreated to reduce its exposure to Japanese air attacks. And Force Z would become a more balanced fleet with fighter cover from Buffalo's.
Of course this would have been a huge risk if most of fleet never returned, and left India very vulnerable, especially to internal political instability by Indian seperatists (Ghandi's I.N. Congress and Chandra Bose's Indian National Army/Azad Hind).
Yes. ASV.II began to be fitted to Swordfish from around mid-1941 but was by no means a universalfit. The IO was not a priority area so I doubt if any of the Swordfish on Hermes had it.Were there radar equipped Stringbags at the time?
[...]It also ignores the fact that, during the final phases of the approach to the Kra Isthmus, the convoys were supposed to have air cover during daylight hours from the IJA fighters based at Idu Phu Quoc (the Ki-43s were fitted with long-range tanks, carried under the wings, for this purpose. Putting slow, vulnerable maritime patrol aircraft over the convoys consistently will likely just mean that more of them would get shot down (as was the case with the first RAF loss of the war in the Far East).
Even if Singapore could track the convoys consistently, they still can't do anything about that knowledge. They can't attack because it would kick off a war that Britain was trying to avoid, and it would give Japan a diplomatic coup for being attacked without warning or being attacked in international waters. Britain was never going to do that.
While I agree with your general points -- no matter what info the Brits gleaned, they lacked the resources to take useful steps -- aren't the emboldened points somewhat contradictory? If the Japanese take the first shots they lose the coup you write of and give the Brits justification for attacking.
Only if the Brits are aware of why the aircraft was lost. As it was, a RAF Catalina was shot down on 7 Dec 1941 (the day before the Japanese invasion, and 2 days before the attack on Pearl Harbor) by 5x Ki-27s but the Catalina crew couldn't get a message out to Singapore....so the cause of the loss was unknown. Bear in mind this was the period of the northwest monsoon, which made flying conditions, even in peacetime, a dangerous proposition.
We know now that the Japanese did take the first shots. They downed an RAF Catalina on the morning of 7th Dec. Unfortunately it didn't manage to get a signal off to Singapore before it blew up. All that was known then was that said Catalina had failed to return from its mission. In those days and given the weather conditions that could occur in that region, that was not necessarily indicative of it having fallen victim to enemy action.While I agree with your general points -- no matter what info the Brits gleaned, they lacked the resources to take useful steps -- aren't the emboldened points somewhat contradictory? If the Japanese take the first shots they lose the coup you write of and give the Brits justification for attacking.
Very interesting I've often postulated the only real way to save SE Asia from the Japanese was that if in June 1940 just after the fall of France the UK, Australia, New Zealand and the Dutch East Indies had formed a joint command structure similar to what they attempted with ABDACOM but a year earlier and the US could slot into an existing structure. I believe that by working together earlier they could use the limited resources more efficiently and through the year of training iron out the communication and doctrine problems that plagued ABDACOM and thus even with limited resources they could possibly be good enough to put a big spanner in the works for the Japanese who historically were operating on a shoestring and had very little spare capacity. You are 100% correct their is no way that the UK could have occupied FEI before the Japs moved in in September 1940 both politically and militarily, but and a very big but the Dutch forces in the region significantly outnumbered the French Colonial troops and a Free Dutch led operation under the nominal command of say Prince Bernhard with a couple of French officer in tow showing up in Indochina politically is very different politically from the UK doing it (historically Torch was made to look as American as possible to avoid the political fall out) and if were really lucky we can get DeGualle to fuck off to FIC to lead the French Government in exile and we don't have to deal with him in London. It would also keep Prince Bernhard far away as undoubtedly a brave man he was not trusted by allied High Command and In 1940 the largest military force in SE Asia was the Dutch KNIL but they were horrifically under-equipped but even so they probably could persuade the FIC to switch sides and they did have a reasonable naval presence in the region, but any move would have to be made in either June July or August 1940 the earlier the better.Ok...here goes with a scenario to answer the OP. These details were gleaned from original files at the UK National Archives. I'm working from memory but I have all the references once I locate the hard drive that is the back-up for my MA thesis.
The key challenge for Brooke-Popham was time. He needed time to implement Operation MATADOR but waiting until the Japanese landed in Malaya wouldn't afford sufficient time. Equally, Brooke-Popham couldn't attack the Japanese troopships before the landings commenced because that would be contrary to the Hague Convention of 1907. Britain had been courting Thailand, attempting to persuade Bangkok to ally with Britain against Japan in hopes that MATADOR could be launched pre-emptively....but without success. Brooke-Popham needed incontrovertible proof of Tokyo's intentions before the Japanese forces started landing, preferably in a way that could be shared with Bangkok to enable MATADOR to be launched in time....and hunting for Japanese convoys in the Gulf of Siam would NEVER provide the necessary warning or evidence.
In early 1941, Brooke-Popham identified a set of key intelligence indicators that would warn of a Japanese attack. The most important of these was the arrival of Japanese fighter aircraft in the region. Bearing in mind that Japanese forces were already established in French Indo-China, it was logical to assume that any deployment of fighters would be to that country. Thus a key task for the Far East Combined Bureau (FECB), Singapore's intelligence analysis organization, was keeping tabs on airfields and the air order of battle in French Indo-China. Now, in reality, the IJA only deployed fighters at the last minute, just a few days before the invasion forces landed on the east coast of the Kra Isthmus...however, a few days would still provide much better warning than a message saying that landings had already begun.
One of the Assistant Consuls in Saigon was a man named William Meiklereid. In late-1941, Meiklereid sent a report to London and Singapore about Japanese airfield construction activity in French Indochina. One of the most active developments was the creation of a brand new airfield on the island of Idu Phu Quoc which was, geographically speaking, the closest point in French Indochina to the eventual landing points at Singora, Pattani, and Kota Bharu. Meiklereid's report provided a sketch map of Japanese aircraft dispositions and the locations of airfields that were under construction. Although the report is undated, it almost certainly arrived in Singapore before the commencement of hostilities.
British expectation was that the Japanese invasion convoys would land in French Indochina before embarking on a northward overland invasion into Thailand and around the northern shore of the Gulf of Siam to reach Malaya. However, the development of airfields on Idu Phu Quoc pointed to a different course of action. If the Japanese intended to push north then they would have expended their energies building airfields in the north near the border between French Indochina and Thailand. Instead, they built airfields to the west on an island. Now, it's a basic tenet of air defence that you put your fighters up-threat from the locations you're trying to defend. If Japan intended a move northward into Thailand, surely their fighter aircraft would have been aligned in the north? However, if Japan's intentions were westward facing, then fighters could be expected at the new airfield on Idu Phu Quoc. Brooke-Popham should have been watching that airfield like a hawk. Unfortunately, either FECB dropped the ball or Brooke-Popham himself started over-obsessing about the location of the invasion convoys.
Photographic reconnaissance assets were available in Singapore that could have kept watch on Idu Phu Quoc. Two Buffalo airframes had been converted for the PR role, one a "short range" (SR) airframe with a single camera (serial W8136) and the other a "long-range" Buffalo with extra fuel and oil tanks, and a pair of cameras providing stereo imagery (serial W8166). Development of the LR Buffalo was problemmatic and it wasn't ready for operations until after the Japanese invasion. However, even the SR Buffalo had sufficient legs to reach Idu Phu Quoc from airfields in Northern Malaya. A further PR platform was developed by adapting a Bristol Beaufort. Some 6 airframes had arrived in Singapore in November 1941 from Australia, the first of a planned replacement fleet for the Vildebeests of 36 and 100 Sqns. Given the deteriorating political situation, and teething troubles getting the Beauforts into service, it was decided to send 5 airframes back to Australia but to retain one for PR purposes. It, too, had sufficient range to reach French Indochina, indeed it was tasked with just such a PR mission on 6 and 7 Dec 1941...unfortunately, it was tasked to photograph ports and harbours rather than the new Japanese airfields.
If FECB and Far East Command set up a dedicated imagery collection effort against Idu Phu Quoc, it's likely that the arrival of IJA fighter aircraft would have been detected days before the Japanese invasion of Thailand and Malaya. The photographic evidence of the deployment could have been provided directly to the Thai government in Bangkok and, through embassy contacts, to the US. Such solid evidence of Japanese intentions could have forced a change of heart in Bangkok, and an invitation to British forces to help defend the key port at Singora....essentially enabling MATADOR before the Japanese invasion. Sadly, the fleeting opportunity was missed and the rest is history.
However, the above is a viable option for Brooke-Popham to respond more effectively to the Japanese threat, and it employs resources that were already available to him in November 1941.
Probably true but at the same time can he survive the loss of prestege as whoever is the govener of such a large and important oiece of the French empire that would have the potential to dominate the Free French economically and militarily will become a major rival and will havr a lot more legitimacy.I don't think DeGaulle was built to accept being sidelined to FIC under any circumstances. He would have read that for what it was and insisted on staying in ETO.
As is so often the case the pure numbers don't give the whole story. OK the French had c50,000 troops in FIC compared to c120,000 for the Dutch in the DEI in late 1941. So your plan looks good, in theory. But have you at the composition of those forces and their role?Very interesting I've often postulated the only real way to save SE Asia from the Japanese was that if in June 1940 just after the fall of France the UK, Australia, New Zealand and the Dutch East Indies had formed a joint command structure similar to what they attempted with ABDACOM but a year earlier and the US could slot into an existing structure. I believe that by working together earlier they could use the limited resources more efficiently and through the year of training iron out the communication and doctrine problems that plagued ABDACOM and thus even with limited resources they could possibly be good enough to put a big spanner in the works for the Japanese who historically were operating on a shoestring and had very little spare capacity. You are 100% correct their is no way that the UK could have occupied FEI before the Japs moved in in September 1940 both politically and militarily, but and a very big but the Dutch forces in the region significantly outnumbered the French Colonial troops and a Free Dutch led operation under the nominal command of say Prince Bernhard with a couple of French officer in tow showing up in Indochina politically is very different politically from the UK doing it (historically Torch was made to look as American as possible to avoid the political fall out) and if were really lucky we can get DeGualle to fuck off to FIC to lead the French Government in exile and we don't have to deal with him in London. It would also keep Prince Bernhard far away as undoubtedly a brave man he was not trusted by allied High Command and In 1940 the largest military force in SE Asia was the Dutch KNIL but they were horrifically under-equipped but even so they probably could persuade the FIC to switch sides and they did have a reasonable naval presence in the region, but any move would have to be made in either June July or August 1940 the earlier the better.
I said it was a big if personally I think it would be too big a risk although in early summer 1940 the Japanese were busy losing the 100 Division offensive in China and had nothing to divert themselves so there is a very small window of opportunity and timing is everything. But the real goal is to have an active command in the region working together training and sharing even the limited resources and in the hope that in the time they do have they can improve the combat effectiveness of the forces enough to cause serious issues for the Japanese who's operation in 1941/42 were done on a shoe string and relied on a lot of luck. In an ideal world a joint UK, AUS, NZ and Dutch command founded in the summer of 1940 to secure the region would be significantly more effective than the historical ABDACOM as they will have more time to prepare. If I could make it happen I would put it under the command of Roger Keyes with the Aussies and the Dutch providing Army and Sub commanders especially Conrad Emil Lambert Helfrich as for army commanders Blamey is availiable but needed in North Africa so I would consider someone Hein ter Poorten for a senior role but luckily Gerardus Johannes Berenschot would still be allive as he hasnt had his flying accident coming back from a conference with Brook Popham and is the best commander the KNIL ever had as well as being liked and well regarded by the rest of the allies and after being shafted by the RAF in the UK I would be looking at Park as commander of the air-force but although his reputation was damaged I think Brooke Popham is treated a little unfairly and I would not be too miffed if he had to stay as head of the air forces. With the Aussies filling up a lot of other roles. Keyes was a very talented 5 aggressive star rank with political skill and a good international reputation and he was actively wanting a command an was in reality given the Commando forces much to the annoyance of many people who wanted him out of the London as he was a nuisance so ending him to a backwater would make London happy. This would also send a positive message to the Americans and maybe shake loose a bit of extra support where possible. I think a pre existing multi-national command even starved of resources would be significantly more effective than the historical ABDACOM and if founded in 1940 the historical communication and doctrine issues should be largely ironed out by December 41. One of the other advantages is by having an established and well known and 5 star rank officer in the field people like MacArthur have to deal with an officer with much more political skill than he does with an even better reputation from WW1 and who outranks him thus solving a lot of this issues of integrating US forces when the war does start. Plus the UK sending Keyes to the Far East would also send a strong message to the Japanese.As is so often the case the pure numbers don't give the whole story. OK the French had c50,000 troops in FIC compared to c120,000 for the Dutch in the DEI in late 1941. So your plan looks good, in theory. But have you at the composition of those forces and their role?
The role of the DEI troops was defence of the colony and internal security, not taking the fight outwith to places like FIC. And look at the physical area that needed to be covered. Efforts had been made from 1938 to expand the core professional forces from around 40,000 through various recruitment schemes, a policy that was accelerated from May 1940, with a view to improving the defence of the colony.
So at the end of 1941 there are 19,000 deployed in various islands throughout the region incl 10,000 in Sumatra for largely internal security purposes. The remaining 94,000 were in Java. But those included 28,000 Support Troops (Town & Rural Guards and other voluntary organisations recruited from May 1940 - the equivalent of the British Home Guard as far as I can see). And then there were Coastal Troops, Aviation units, Medical units etc that account for another 4,500.
That leaves about 44,000 in 3 KNIL divisions plus another 17,000 Territorials and Indonesian Militia on Java, many of whom were recent recruits or even retired personnel encouraged to join up again.
So you end up with a core army not too dissimilar in size to that of the French in Indochina. How many can you afford to remove from Java in mid-1940 to support an invasion of FIC, without weakening the DEI colony defences to a direct Japanese attack? If we look to the French Colonial experience in Africa then securing a quick switch of allegiance to the Allies is not one to be counted on. Loyalty to Vichy remained strong.
Probably true but at the same time can he survive the loss of prestege as whoever is the govener of such a large and important oiece of the French empire that would have the potential to dominate the Free French economically and militarily will become a major rival and will havr a lot more legitimacy.
I also wouldn't be suprised if the Flying Tigers didn't also show up for some pre-deployment training after all they are not combat pilots going to an active warzone but civilian flight instructors for the school.
At the beginning of Dec 1941 the only capital ship other than Force Z east of Suez was a single slow R class battleship… The sole available carrier, Hermes was refitting at Simonstown, South Africa
Given all these factors, I don't see action in the summer of 1940 as a viable option. Britain simply had too much on its plate...like fighting for its own survival. Plus, as I and others have noted, the in-theatre forces, even combining British and Dutch resources, were inadequate for any kind of substantive action towards French Indochina.