buffnut453
Captain
Good point, and we have to remember that even Hermes was well west (over 800 nmi) of Suez.
I still see as viable a British request to position a small BEF into FIC at the same time as the BEF went to France. By Sept 1939 Japan was already holding Hainan and much of Canton province across from Hong Kong and right next door to FIC. By 1939 the US' "moral embargo" was already underway as a protest against Japan's war in China. It would cost Britain very little to move troops from India or Malaya to FIC. When France falls in May 1940 will these British forces be forcibly expelled by the FIC governor or asked to stay on as a deterrent to Japan? Feelings may change when the RN attacks the French navy in July. Anyway, the only way I see British forces getting into FIC before the Japanese is if they're invited.
The problem here is that we're pre-supposing, in mid-1940, that Japan will move into French Indochina. That knowledge/understanding simply isn't available at that time.
The Franco-Thai war, which brought Japanese forces into northern French Indochina ostensibly as "peacekeepers", only started in October 1940. Britain clearly didn't want to get in the middle of the spat between Bangkok and Saigon, otherwise it would have pushed its role as an arbitrator. Remember Britain is trying to seduce Thailand as a bulwark against Japan. Britain won't win Bangkok's support if the former is seen siding with French Indochina....and deploying forces there in mid-1940 will have all the appearance of an Anglo-French alliance in the region.
I know you don't like it when I point out stuff like this but Britain's agency to act was massively constrained by significant structural issues, including political factors and military resource limitations (both capacity and capability). And before you say that "Britain was being spineless and should have just ignored Thailand", remember that forcing Thailand into Japan's camp simply complicates the operational problem for Brooke-Popham because it gives Japan free access to the key port of Singora.