Questions about B-29 operational range, VVS, VVS intercept capability if Operation Unthinkable happen. (2 Viewers)

bf109xxl said:

Operation Unthinkable should begin immediately, and the plans for war with Japan would have to be radically changed - up to a separate peace with the transfer of Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands to Japan on condition of participation in the war against the USSR.
Geopolitically, this would be an interesting alternative - at the same time, the Japanese would be forced to fight against the Chinese Communists.
But from the point of view of justice and humanism, of course, it is an extremely ugly alternative.

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There's no way on Earth the American people would accept any sort of negotiated peace with the nation that bombed Pearl Harbor, aside from retaining the Emperor, of course.

Thumpalumpacus said:

There's no way on Earth the American people would accept any sort of negotiated peace with the nation that bombed Pearl Harbor, aside from retaining the Emperor, of course.

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Nothing is impossible in geopolitics. It is just a matter of the quality of propaganda.

Thumpalumpacus said:

There's no way on Earth the American people would accept any sort of negotiated peace with the nation that bombed Pearl Harbor, aside from retaining the Emperor, of course.

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I agree.

But the prospect of some of the estimated figures for the level of casualties that might be expected from invading Japan was troubling the politicians. So if they could not spare the forces to do that, then other alternatives might be looked at. Like more bombing or starving the Japanese into submission. But the latter might have taken until 1947 on some estimates.

On the subject of USAAF strength, there was a planning document JCS 521/12 dated 25 March 1945 that set out the deployment position after the end of the war in Europe.

For the war against Japan this was updated on 9 August 1945. Given that all the B-29s in this timeframe were to be allocated to the Pacific, it gives some idea of the strength of the B-29 force in 1945/46. JCS 521/12 had envisaged the B-29 force building up to 48 VHB BG by March 1946. That was reduced to 40 VHB in the 9 Aug plan. 20 of those had already deployed to the Pacific and were based in the Marianas (18 had arrived before VE Day, with the other 2 en route) while another 4 were in the process of deploying to 8th AF on Okinawa (spread between the West Coast & Okinawa) on 15 Aug with 8 more due by Dec 1945 and the final 8 by March 1946. The oddity is that the unit equipment figure is 34 aircraft per group rather than the 45 I would have expected.

While some of the units destined for Okinawa had been designated as VHB as early as Aug 1944 (having been training units in the USA) there were aircraft and equipment shortages that meant some did not receive B-29s until as late as Spring 1945.

Production was stopped in Sept / Oct at all 4 plants after 3,943 B-29 / B-29A / B-29B had been produced. I have a figure of 499 being lost by the various BW, but I think that is after they reached the combat zone so excludes losses in training etc.

By Aug 1945, if it was expected that a unit would not be ready to deploy by March 1946, plans for it to do so were shelved and the unit disbanded in the USA.

So, if you redirect all B-29s not already deployed in the Marianas on VE-Day to some of these other bases, you don't begin to build up that B-29 force until the end of July at the earliest.

B-32
The 312th BG began the conversion from the A-20 to the B-32 in May 1945 with the arrival of a test detachment. Only 1 or 2 of its squadrons did eventually convert. This was being classed by the USAAF as a Heavy Bomber not a Very Heavy Bomber. As far as I can determine the 312th BG was the only unit in the Pacific theatre expected to transition to the B-32, production of which was slow.

Other butterflies (some I've mentioned before)
Soviet invasion of Manchuria & other Far East areas. Does it happen at all? On what scale? How fast does it go? If on a reduced scale, can the Japanese withstand the attack?

What is happening in China? The Chinese offensive in the south had gained traction in summer 1945 as the Japanese withdrew nearer their homeland. New routes for LL aid by sea from the Philippines had opened up. Who do the Chinese Communists hate most? The Japanese or the Chinese Nationalists? What support do the Communists get from USSR who might see it as a way of forcing the USA to intervene in mainland China to assist its long time ally?

Lend Lease is interesting. The 4th Protocol with USSR ended on 30 June 1945, at which point some aid was still in transit. The USA alone continued LL supplies outwith any protocol agreements as an inducement for Stalin to keep his promise about declaring war on Japan. Obviously it ends at some point but in the summer of 1945 the Soviets got a lot of shipping to assist in their amphibious assaults (see Project Hula that had started in early March 1945 with vessels sailing between mid-May & early Sept). Not having these vessels must surely have some impact on Soviet invasion plans in the Far East.
Project Hula - Wikipedia

Thumpalumpacus said:

With B-26s and A-26s at 10-14,000 ft, not to mention Mosquitoes and T-bolts for lower-level/strafing work, I think that's a pretty good A-game. The VVS still has good experience and kit, true, but lacking up-to-date radar and shorter-ranged fighters, they've got their work cut out for them. Dash-climbs burn fuel fast. Bombers are probably headed home by the time those Soviet fighters get up there; Allied mediums are a bit faster than Luftwaffe meds.

Me, I'd throw 8th AF heavies against those airfields too if need be, or Kenney-style parafrag raids. My larger point is that we have worked out the basics of seizing air control by both attacking airfields and blanketing with fighters.

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"I say we take off and nuke the country from altitude. It's the only way to be sure." -- Ripley, probably

33k in the air said:

"I say we take off and nuke the country from altitude. It's the only way to be sure." -- Ripley, probably

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Gen Groves Memo of 30 July 1945 giving details of expected A-bomb production through to the end of 1945. There were discussions about using these weapons tactically ahead of the landings on Kyushu. Fortunately none of this came to pass.

bf109xxl said:

Nothing is impossible in geopolitics. It is just a matter of the quality of propaganda.

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Yeah, that level wouldn't be reached here inre: the Japanese in 1945. It ain't gonna happen.

B-29 production ended at Bell and Martin in September 1945, it ended in October at Wichita with the final 2 acceptances. The Renton B-29A line paused in October 1945 then resumed, another 7 built November and December 1945 and 62 January to June 1946.

Boeing Seattle 3 XB-29
Boeing Wichita 14 YB-29
Boeing Wichita 1,620 B-29
Boeing Renton 1,119 B-29A
Bell 357 B-29
Bell 311 B-29B
Martin 536 B-29
Total 3,960

USAAF Statistical Digest
Overseas includes losses suffered enroute to and from overseas as well as losses in Theatre, ATC foreign divisions and other overseas commands. Negative Loss numbers indicate the excess of gains from salvage over losses

End April 1945 the USAAF reports 1,373 B-32 and TB-32 on order or accepted, program completions in the second half of 1946, end May it was 214 on order or accepted, to be completed by end 1945.

EwenS said:

I'm not a meteorologist but have learnt enough from the TV weather forecasts to know that the jet stream is not some fixed river in the sky. It moves about and affects the weather patterns around it. Couple of diagrams here showing movements over Asia under different conditions.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Schematic-diagrams-of-atmospheric-circulation-patterns-associated-with-winter-cold_fig5_350966705

There is now an interactive global jetstream forecaster on internet showing predicted movements for the next month or so. Interesting to see how it moves.

Global Jet Stream Map - Netweather

View the jet stream forecast for the entire globe

www.netweather.tv

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Japan was like Grand Central Station for jet stream activity. Europe at least where the heavy bombers flew had no jet stream activity that I have ever read about.

I'm thinking that if Unthinkable happened, B-29 production wouldn't be stopped. Other airframes as well would be carried on, too. A lot more not only B-29s, but more P-47Ns, P-51Hs, not to mention ground equipment like M-26s and so on.

The USA would most certainly use its massive industrial capacity in any follow-on war against the USSR. Given the Soviets' reliance on LL for stuff like steel, POLs, and even soft support like boots and uniforms, it could get dicey.

Less given to USSR means more available for domestic American production.

There was also quite a few U.S. aircraft (fighters and bombers) in development during the war, that were on the verge of production before being axed by Japan's surrender.

Had the war against the Soviet Union commenced, I imagine that these aircraft may have come into being.

Didn't check the specs but I'm pretty sure the Meteor, Shooting Star, P-82 and probably a few other super props would've been able to deal with the MiG 9.

SaparotRob said:

Didn't check the specs but I'm pretty sure the Meteor, Shooting Star, P-82 and probably a few other super props would've been able to deal with the MiG 9.

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DH Venom (or Vampire? I confuzzle 'em). The Avro Lincoln. Comet tanks. It's not like USSR is only fighting one nation now. They're only fighting the two most powerful economies in the world.