Set a Ceylon trap for Nagumo, March 1942

[The Basket]

The British Fleet tracked the Japanese strike force on radar over the two cruisers, so they certainly knew that a large Japanese force had struck.
They were apparently about 45 miles away, close enough to show up on air search radar.

Yes they did see aircraft on radar.

Oddly the Japanese did think this through.
The cruisers were heading for the British fleet so they did send float planes up on the heading of the two cruisers.

But they turned back too early. Another 15 miles and they would have seen Force A and had plenty of daylight.

Both cruisers were sunk in less than 15 minutes. Probably not by direct hits but by near misses.

This is what you were up against.

Get the Vals and Kates up and you are going to sink any ship anywhere so the idea that the RN were going to smash the Kido Butai like a Sunday school outing is just not right.

 

[Peter Gunn]

Imagine the site of the aircraft....

Wellingtons striking from medium altitude.

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Fulmars, Albacores (and Chesapeakes, Skuas and Rocs?) dive bombing.

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Hampdens, Beauforts, Albacores and Swordfish launching torpedoes

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Escorted by Spitfires and Hurricanes...

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Envisioning such a force taking off makes me think of both Rule Britannia and unfortunately, Tennyson's Charge of the Light Brigade....

"Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do & die,
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred."

Interesting hypothesis, almost like B-17's at Medium/high altitude, B-26's charging in with torpedoes, Vindicators glide bombing, Devestator's on torpedo runs and Dauntless' dive bombing, all escorted by F4F Wildcats.

The parallels are fascinating, one wonders how the British force would have fared had it come off. But I agree with Basket,"Get the Vals and Kates up and you are going to sink any ship anywhere so the idea that the RN were going to smash the Kido Butai like a Sunday school outing is just not right."

I think it would be unwise as well as unlikely that the RN/RAF is going to stomp Nagumo flat, but they may have gotten a few good licks in, and Midway showed how delicate IJN carriers were at this stage of the war.

 

[Admiral Beez]

But I agree with Basket,"Get the Vals and Kates up and you are going to sink any ship anywhere

With none of Taiho's avgas storage and damage control deficiencies, the British armoured carriers are a hard nut to crack, taking German dive bomber hits, Italian torpedoes, Kamikazes and collisions and coming back for more. Of course put enough holes into anything and it will sink.

I'm seeing this with the RAF playing the lead role, as they have the long range reconnaissance assets, the fast torpedo and level bombers, plus fighters capable of dealing with the Zeros. I would place the RN, and especially its Perisher-commanded submarines off the Nicobar Islands to hit Nagumo's surviving ships on their way home.

If the British can inflict a mortal wound, I wonder how Operation Mo goes down in early May.

 

[swampyankee]

I don't know how good UK sigint was in the Indian Ocean, but getting RN submarines where they can attack Nagumo's force would be first, followed by night air-launched torpedo attacks. If the Nagumo keeps approaching, continue submarine and night air attacks. If they get close enough for RAF fighters to escort attack aircraft, try day attacks, with dive bombers preferentially attacking carriers. After dark, let the destroyer flotillas loose.

 

[swampyankee]

With none of Taiho's avgas storage and damage control deficiencies, the British armoured carriers are a hard nut to crack, taking German dive bomber hits, Italian torpedoes, Kamikazes and collisions and coming back for more. Of course put enough holes into anything and it will sink.

I'm seeing this with the RAF playing the lead role, as they have the long range reconnaissance assets, the fast torpedo and level bombers, plus fighters capable of dealing with the Zeros. I would place the RN, and especially its Perisher-commanded submarines off the Nicobar Islands to hit Nagumo's surviving ships on their way home.

If the British can inflict a mortal wound, I wonder how Operation Mo goes down in early May.

If the RN inflicts significant damage (say puts a carrier out of service for a year or, better, sinks it), it would be a great morale booster for Commonwealth forces in the Pacific. A second useful activity would be for the Commonwealth navies to devote as much effort as practical to attacking Japanese ship traffic, as Japan was heavily dependent on surface ships to supply its forces and feed itself.

 

[The Basket]

Shokaku took some lumps so not as glass cannon as one may think.

Odd the intelligence kept on mentioning Kaga and that one was the only main fleet carrier that wasn't there. Military intelligence is a oxymoron.

Subs are good for commerce raiding but chasing Battleships not so much. Often depends on fluke but even if you knew where the fleet will be doesn't mean they will actually be there and a sub is much slower so it ain't chasing.

 

[pinsog]

With none of Taiho's avgas storage and damage control deficiencies, the British armoured carriers are a hard nut to crack, taking German dive bomber hits, Italian torpedoes, Kamikazes and collisions and coming back for more. Of course put enough holes into anything and it will sink.

I'm seeing this with the RAF playing the lead role, as they have the long range reconnaissance assets, the fast torpedo and level bombers, plus fighters capable of dealing with the Zeros. I would place the RN, and especially its Perisher-commanded submarines off the Nicobar Islands to hit Nagumo's surviving ships on their way home.

If the British can inflict a mortal wound, I wonder how Operation Mo goes down in early May.

Armored carriers certainly held up well against dive bombers, but the main threat is the Japanese Kate torpedo bombers, British ships didn't do well against torpedos. Prince of Wales was crippled with a single hit and that single hit might have even been fatal according to a forensic account of her sinking, Ark Royal was sunk by a single torpedo as well.
I would think the Japanese will bomb land bases before the fleet gets close enough for Spitfires and Hurricanes to escort the bombers (or do the British planes have drop tanks?).
The main problem I see for the British is the type of attack aircraft they have available. Yes a few bombs or torpedoes would cripple or sink a Japanese carrier but the problem is getting that close with biplane bombers while Zeros and even Vals for that matter are defending them.

I would leave the Royal Navy at home and fight from land based only.

This is too early for Beaufighters and even they would be vulnerable on a torpedo run without adequate rear protection. If the British had early short wing B26's and A20 Havocs for torpedo bombers they might have a chance.

Level bombers are a waste of time.

Since all you have to do is penetrate a wooden flight deck then instead of true dive bombers, what about Whirlwinds? Fast at medium and low altitude, seems like I read they could do 300mph at low altitude with 2 500 pound bombs, they could attack from lower altitude, say 5000 feet, maybe a 30 degree angle, Spitfire escorts. Might use Hurricanes the same way, each Hurricane carrying a 500 pound bomb, escorted by Spitfires. A P40 carrying a 500 pound bomb might be effective as well. At least one of those 3 types of fighter bombers has a chance to get past a large group of Zeros

 

[RCAFson]

Yes they did see aircraft on radar.

Oddly the Japanese did think this through.
The cruisers were heading for the British fleet so they did send float planes up on the heading of the two cruisers.

But they turned back too early. Another 15 miles and they would have seen Force A and had plenty of daylight.

Both cruisers were sunk in less than 15 minutes. Probably not by direct hits but by near misses.

This is what you were up against.

Get the Vals and Kates up and you are going to sink any ship anywhere so the idea that the RN were going to smash the Kido Butai like a Sunday school outing is just not right.

By this logic, the USN was destroyed at Midway...

 

[Admiral Beez]

Subs are good for commerce raiding but chasing Battleships not so much.

True, but submarines did very well against the Royal Navy's capital ships. Not counting HMS Royal Oak torpedoed in harbour, Axis submarines sank HMS Barham, Ark Royal, Courageous and Eagle. Axis submarines also sank the smaller aircraft carriers HMS Audacity and Avenger, plus six cruisers: HMS Galatea, Penelope, Dunedin, Hermione, Bonaventure and Naiad. Yes it's a question of right time and place, but submarines can take on their share of heavy surface warships.

 

[The Basket]

Subs are good but fleet subs not so good.

Tried and failed. Subs work best as commerce raiders. Against warships is a world of hurt. Warships are faster and more agile and shoot back.

Subs work best in choke points or as roaming opportunists.

The IJN could have won Midway. Not too far to say that. It was a fair fight. Fair fights are bad mojo. You can easily lose them. Different world and the USN is 3 carriers down. To be honest I wouldn't have done that as far too risky. But to the victor the spoils.

Von Moltke said no plan survived contact with the enemy. And he knew his stuff.

Arrogance and ignorance and over confidence has 2 monuments called PoW and Repulse sitting in the sea bed. If they still there.

The Indian Ocean is pure 2nd XI and the RN is not going to send over it's A-team when Europe is the key.

Colombo is not Dover.

 

[The Basket]

One flaw in IJN is only using Tone class float planes and in this case Kongos float planes for recon.

You got 5 carriers. You can spare a Kate.

It could have cost them at Ceylon and it certainly did at Midway. Coral Sea not so much as they were able to use land based machines.

Carriers were pure offensive firepower. Kates were used in recon but the doctrine was there.

 

[pinsog]

One flaw in IJN is only using Tone class float planes and in this case Kongos float planes for recon.

You got 5 carriers. You can spare a Kate.

It could have cost them at Ceylon and it certainly did at Midway. Coral Sea not so much as they were able to use land based machines.

Carriers were pure offensive firepower. Kates were used in recon but the doctrine was there.

If I had 5 carriers and only the token resistance the RN consisted of then I would have devoted 1 entire carrier to search only.

 

[Admiral Beez]

If I had 5 carriers and only the token resistance the RN consisted of then I would have devoted 1 entire carrier to search only.

It's Nagumo's negligence of situational awareness that the British will be counting on.

 

[Peter Gunn]

If I had 5 carriers and only the token resistance the RN consisted of then I would have devoted 1 entire carrier to search only.

Whilst I agree with this I believe Nagumo was merely going by IJN doctrine at the time, after Midway there was a big push to expand carrier air searches according to Shattered Sword.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Whilst I agree with this I believe Nagumo was merely going by IJN doctrine at the time, after Midway there was a big push to expand carrier air searches according to Shattered Sword.

If the Brits can pull this off there will be no IJN/A Midway offensive.

 

[swampyankee]

I think this entire plan works best if the RN and RAF neither under-estimate the IJN's capability, especially in air warfare, nor over-estimate their own capabilities. However, I think the RN had one major strength over the IJN: it was better in submarine warfare and in night air attack. It should take advantage of both, presuming the hardware is available. While the IJN had radar, it doesn't seem to have significant deployment before late 1942 to early 1943. If this is correct, the IJN is vulnerable to night attack: the first the IJN may know of a torpedo attack would be when their ships' outlooks hear the Stringbags on approach. This is not likely to give them enough time to perform a particularly effective defense.

The RN's submarine force was quite competent, with effective torpedoes, and it's likely the IJN's ASW capabilities were much worse than the RN's at this time, so their fleet would be fairly vulnerable.

My plan isn't intended to be a quick action, but more of a spoiling attack, attacking the known* weak points of the IJN with the relative strengths of the RN, RN/FAA, and RAF. Trying to fight a daylight battle would be fighting to the IJN's strength, especially in the air.

---

* At least in retrospect. While Japan had a good optical industry at this time, and some quite good night optics, their electronics industry was not as well developed as that of the UK, Germany, the US,

 

[RCAFson]

The British Fleet tracked the Japanese strike force on radar over the two cruisers, so they certainly knew that a large Japanese force had struck.
They were apparently about 45 miles away, close enough to show up on air search radar.

This is from Somerville's report:


"36. At 1344 an enemy air formation had been detected by R.D.F. 30 degrees 84 miles from Force A. This had faded after five minutes and it is now clear that this must have been the attack on the 8" cruisers (which it was learnt afterwards occurred at about 1400). Wreckage was reported by reconnaissance aircraft from Force A at 1522 in position 2-08N, 78-08E."
Eastern Fleet, Admiralty War Diary 1942

 

[Admiral Beez]

While the IJN had radar, it doesn't seem to have significant deployment before late 1942 to early 1943. If this is correct, the IJN is vulnerable to night attack

AIUI, not one ship in Nagumo's force had radar. They're operating just off the coast of Ceylon with little CAP or reconnaissance aloft. That's why our RAF trap may work, with British bombers and fighters being over the Japanese fleet within minutes of taking off.

It's incredible to me that the IJN having built themselves around naval aviation didn't think to install radar and centralized fighter control in their carriers. The Brits and Americans were well ahead on this. By 1941 the Germans had radar on their capital ships, couldn't the Japanese have borrowed the German plans?

 

[swampyankee]

AIUI, not one ship in Nagumo's force had radar. They're operating just off the coast of Ceylon with little CAP or reconnaissance aloft. That's why our RAF trap may work, with British bombers and fighters being over the Japanese fleet within minutes of taking off.

It's incredible to me that the IJN having built themselves around naval aviation didn't think to install radar and centralized fighter control in their carriers. The Brits and Americans were well ahead on this. By 1941 the Germans had radar on their capital ships, couldn't the Japanese have borrowed the German plans?

I think a significant number of Japanese military leaders were far too enamored of the weapons that made big bangs and not concerned enough with the supporting technologies, like radar, and operational issues, like ASW. That latter is, to me, has got to be one of the stupidest errors the IJN made. They were strongly influenced by the RN, a navy that made its name as much by protecting its nation's shipping and destroying that of its enemies as by prowess in direct combat, and yet they just about completely ignored both shipping protection and enemy commerce destruction.

 

[RW Mk. III]

I think a significant number of Japanese military leaders were far too enamored of the weapons that made big bangs and not concerned enough with the supporting technologies, like radar, and operational issues, like ASW. That latter is, to me, has got to be one of the stupidest errors the IJN made. They were strongly influenced by the RN, a navy that made its name as much by protecting its nation's shipping and destroying that of its enemies as by prowess in direct combat, and yet they just about completely ignored both shipping protection and enemy commerce destruction.

Agreed, the stubborn refusal to convoy was baffling. Had they tended to logistics and infrastructure properly the entire Pacific campaign would have been slowed for the allies. The generation leading Japan and its military for WW2 seems to have absorbed only the sizzle and not the steak of the Russo-Japanese war. There aren't a lot of great English language books on that war but by all accounts the Japanese Army and Navy had carefully prepared to resupply and support themselves.