"The case for the P-47 Thunderbolt being the greatest fighter of the Second World War "

[drgondog]

Thats an interesting assertion. I know its canon that its the case regarding the P47. But has anyone ever actually analysed which aircraft delivered 'the best odds on getting back'?

How can it be quantified, given it was also undertaking some of the most hazardous missions? Was its loss rate per sortie measurably superior to types undertaking the same missions, like say for ground attack, Hawker Typhoons? Or for bomber escort, P38s or P51s?

Your point and questions are valid. What appears to be true is that the P-47 loss per sortie is lower than P-51.

What is not baked into the data are three important silos of data.
1.) Number of escort sorties in which no enemy contact was made.
2.) Average radius of each sortie into enemy airspace. The reason this is important is that the distance to return to friendly territory with a damaged ship is important.
3.) Average threat environment for each sortie. For example, this factor IMO is higher for CAS than for escort on a sortie by sortie basis.

 

[pbehn]

Losses to ground fire were not entirely random. Some squadrons units groups developed methods for working over and silencing a targets AA fire and obviously some were better at it than others.

 

[PAT303]

The Canadian Lancaster still flying is named after Pilot officer Andrew Mynarski, when their Lancaster was hit and in flames, he tried to free the trapped rear gunner, but couldnt. He eventually jumped but was too low and although he survived the landing he died later. The trapped rear gunner Pilot officer Pat Brophy survived the crash and his account of events allowed Mynarski to be awarded a V.C

That generation was beyond brave.

 

[PAT303]

One fact that gets glossed over in the Robert Johnson story is that 4 of his 56th FG mates died at the hands of the Luftwaffe that day. I think Johnson's survival owed a great deal to luck.

And the FW190 being out of cannon ammunition.

 

[Geoffrey Sinclair]

Ninth Air Force Operations 16 October 1943 to 8 May 1945, loss rates are MIA + CAT E per 1,000 credit sorties, that is sorties that came within range of the enemy. Note the hours are for all combat sorties, so the averages here are slightly higher than actual hours on credit sorties. The simplest survival measure is the ratio of MIA to category E, then the ratio of damaged to lost, but as already noted that has to be tempered by how far from base the aircraft was, hence the hours per sortie. Next are the threats, the claims give an idea of exposure to enemy aircraft, the bomb tonnage to flak. The notes make it clear there are plenty of uncertainties when it comes to cause of loss. Claims are the sum of destroyed+probable+damaged.

The Air Force lost 2347 tactical aircraft, and 742 were written off as the result of battle damage (Category E) in the full period of operations. Of every 1000 aircraft entering enemy territory 7.7 were lost or received damage resulting in salvage. Of every 100 aircraft losses or write offs for battle damage 47 were charged to flak, 13 to enemy aircraft and 40 to crash landings, accidents the result of enemy action, combinations of flak and enemy aircraft or losses with reason unknown. Bombers had a slightly lower, reconnaissance a considerably lower, and fighters a slightly higher loss rate than the air force average.

For every aircraft lost or salvaged for battle damage six received battle damage requiring major repairs or replacements. The ratio of flak loss to flak damage was one to 12.
(a) Category "A" describes aircraft repairable by the nearest convenient combat unit.
(b) Category "AC" describes aircraft repairable on site by an Air Service Command unit or equivalent.
(c) Category "B" describes aircraft to be collected by a salvage organisation and dispatched for repair to an Air Service Command or equivalent.
(d) Category "E" describes aircraft damaged beyond economical repair. Aircraft which crash in friendly territory are considered to be damaged Category "E", not lost.

P-38	Credit Sortie	Bomb tons	MIA	CAT E	Total	Rate	Claims	Hours	Hours/sortie
Apr-44​	141​	0.000​	0​	0​	0​	0.0​	0​	1284​	9.11​
May-44​	2901​	148.500​	13​	11​	24​	8.3​	3​	6324​	2.18​
Jun-44​	4455​	1884.750​	44​	8​	52​	11.7​	45.5​	12442​	2.79​
Jul-44​	3565​	1253.250​	36​	11​	47​	13.2​	67​	9801​	2.75​
Aug-44​	3851​	1390.220​	64​	10​	74​	19.2​	128.5​	8944​	2.32​
Sep-44​	3022​	790.600​	20​	7​	27​	8.9​	37​	8621​	2.85​
Oct-44​	2271​	662.100​	25​	4​	29​	12.8​	66​	5703​	2.51​
Nov-44​	2224​	783.150​	22​	6​	28​	12.6​	15​	5408​	2.43​
Dec-44​	2740​	1284.500​	43​	5​	48​	17.5​	122​	6048​	2.21​
Jan-45​	1485​	588.600​	13​	2​	15​	10.1​	0​	3482​	2.34​
Feb-45​	1783​	1038.350​	16​	9​	25​	14.0​	13​	3492​	1.96​
Mar-45​	2974​	765.000​	13​	0​	13​	4.4​	15​	7826​	2.63​
Apr-45​	1402​	411.550​	8​	4​	12​	8.6​	9​	2883​	2.06​
May-45​	114​	0.000​	0​	0​	0​	0.0​	3​	323​	2.83​
1944​	25170​	8197.07​	267​	62​	329​	13.1​	484​	64575​	2.57​
1945​	7758​	2803.5​	50​	15​	65​	8.4​	40​	18006​	2.32​
Grand	32928​	11000.57​	317​	77​	394​	12​	524​	82581​	2.51​

P-47

Feb-44​	1098​	0.000​	5​	0​	5​	4.6​	7​	3538​	3.22​
Mar-44​	3694​	77.000​	6​	1​	7​	1.9​	13​	9399​	2.54​
Apr-44​	5465​	902.105​	14​	5​	19​	3.5​	33​	14150​	2.59​
May-44​	15079​	2974.545​	44​	8​	52​	3.4​	8​	44961​	2.98​
Jun-44​	21994​	5168.890​	186​	24​	210​	9.5​	170​	52119​	2.37​
Jul-44​	17594​	4579.410​	134​	20​	154​	8.8​	149​	36746​	2.09​
Aug-44​	18688​	3897.910​	149​	12​	161​	8.6​	158.5​	42711​	2.29​
Sep-44​	13771​	3163.340​	65​	25​	90​	6.5​	89​	39497​	2.87​
Oct-44​	12823​	4065.750​	69​	23​	92​	7.2​	157​	31181​	2.43​
Nov-44​	9431​	3062.487​	74​	18​	92​	9.8​	61​	19792​	2.10​
Dec-44​	12507​	5118.422​	128​	26​	154​	12.3​	409​	25753​	2.06​
Jan-45​	8633​	4284.156​	77​	13​	90​	10.4​	51​	17765​	2.06​
Feb-45​	13518​	6694.762​	68​	17​	85​	6.3​	82​	27730​	2.05​
Mar-45​	24969​	8942.556​	112​	38​	150​	6.0​	105​	53286​	2.13​
Apr-45​	16641​	3347.705​	73​	17​	90​	5.4​	197​	52043​	3.13​
May-45​	1286​	43.000​	4​	2​	6​	4.7​	13​	4381​	3.41​
1944​	132144​	33009.859​	874​	162​	1036​	7.8​	1254.5​	319847​	2.42​
1945​	65047​	23312.179​	334​	87​	421​	6.5​	448​	155205​	2.39​
Grand	197191​	56322.038​	1208​	249​	1457​	7.4​	1702.5​	475052​	2.41​

P-51

Dec-43​	361​	0.000​	7​	0​	7​	19.4​	24​	961​	2.66​
Jan-44​	325​	0.000​	4​	0​	4​	12.3​	98​	1333​	4.10​
Feb-44​	682​	0.000​	11​	0​	11​	16.1​	131.5​	2353​	3.45​
Mar-44​	933​	25.750​	30​	2​	32​	34.3​	64​	4317​	4.63​
Apr-44​	2052​	149.750​	39​	1​	40​	19.5​	135​	7121​	3.47​
May-44​	2194​	117.625​	21​	2​	23​	10.5​	113.5​	7119​	3.24​
Jun-44​	2733​	704.605​	31​	2​	33​	12.1​	78​	8802​	3.22​
Jul-44​	2973​	23.000​	16​	1​	17​	5.7​	81​	6458​	2.17​
Aug-44​	2691​	9.625​	32​	3​	35​	13.0​	102​	6526​	2.43​
Sep-44​	832​	58.375​	6​	0​	6​	7.2​	38​	3102​	3.73​
Oct-44​	538​	140.250​	10​	1​	11​	20.4​	35​	1533​	2.85​
Nov-44​	556​	158.000​	12​	4​	16​	28.8​	7​	1367​	2.46​
Dec-44​	38​	18.500​	1​	0​	1​	26.3​	3​	89​	2.34​
Jan-45​	0​	0.000​	0​	0​	0​	0.0​	0​	0​	0.00​
Feb-45​	479​	96.750​	7​	0​	7​	14.6​	9​	1344​	2.81​
Mar-45​	3391​	13.000​	12​	1​	13​	3.8​	76​	8785​	2.59​
Apr-45​	3544​	49.875​	14​	1​	15​	4.2​	149​	10851​	3.06​
May-45​	183​	0.000​	0​	1​	1​	5.5​	0​	548​	2.99​
1943​	361​	0.000​	7​	0​	7​	19.4​	24​	961​	2.66​
1944​	16547​	1405.480​	213​	16​	229​	13.8​	886​	50120​	3.03​
1945​	7597​	159.625​	33​	3​	36​	4.7​	234​	21528​	2.83​
Grand	24505​	1565.105​	253​	19​	272​	11.1​	1144​	72609​	2.96​

 

[Geoffrey Sinclair]

Battle Losses

A/C Type	Category	P-38	P-47	P-51
Flak	Lost	115​	612​	76​
Flak	CAT E	32​	131​	7​
Flak	Total	147​	743​	83​
Flak	Rate	4.5​	3.8​	3.4​
Enemy Aircraft	Lost	81​	176​	41​
Enemy Aircraft	CAT E	6​	19​	0​
Enemy Aircraft	Total	87​	195​	41​
Enemy Aircraft	Rate	2.6​	1.0​	1.7​
Other	Lost	121​	420​	136​
Other	CAT E	39​	99​	12​
Other	Total	160​	519​	148​
Other	Rate	4.9​	2.6​	6.0​
Totals	Lost	317​	1208​	253​
Totals	CAT E	77​	249​	19​
Totals	Total	394​	1457​	272​

Battle Damage

Flak	A	590​	3130​	212​
Flak	AC	96​	1653​	52​
Flak	B	20​	81​	11​
Flak	Total	706​	4864​	275​
Enemy Aircraft	A	13​	50​	11​
Enemy Aircraft	AC	15​	110​	8​
Enemy Aircraft	B	2​	7​	1​
Enemy Aircraft	Total	30​	167​	20​
Other	A	42​	179​	11​
Other	AC	22​	195​	17​
Other	B	7​	21​	4​
Total	Total	71​	395​	32​
Total	A	645​	3359​	234​
Total	AC	133​	1958​	77​
Total	B	29​	109​	16​
Total	Total	807​	5426​	327​

 

[pbehn]

View attachment 718231
View attachment 718232
You have to wonder how some got back, looking at the photo's both were hit on the guns, the Browning(s) are missing from the Spit and the outboard .50 on the P51, maybe they absorbed most of the impact?.

It is survivor bias, the ones that got parts blown off so it couldnt fly didnt get back to have a picture taken.

 

[PAT303]

It is survivor bias, the ones that got parts blown off so it couldnt fly didnt get back to have a picture taken.

I was wondering more about why they got back, like both were hit on the guns which could have absorbed the impact, but yes survivor bias is a known thing.

 

[gruad]

Indeed! Ramrods, Rhubarbs, Ramrods and Circuses - not to mention the Dieppe raid etc.

Too Costly but necessary for morale.

 

[Frog]

Too Costly but necessary for morale.

Not for the pilots that had to perform these costly missions.

 

[tomo pauk]

Not for the pilots that had to perform these costly missions.

Not even for their commanders and colleagues.