What does Japan do if War against USA/UK/DEI postponed to Spring 1942?

Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules

Standard boilerplate: With the understanding that the following in no way condones the behavior of the Japanese toward the people of Korea, Manchuria, China, . . .:

Note 1: Nanjing was the capital of the Chinese National(ist) Government at the time of the battle for Nanjing.
Note 2: I am using the term National(ist) China, in this case, as another name for the Republic of China. I find it less confusing to use this term as many of the historical accounts seem to use these two names differently.

While the happenings at Nanjing after the battle can rightly be called a massacre, before 1949 it was (sort-of) allowable under the Geneva Conventions. There are 2 main elements involved.

The first is that, as mentioned above, Nanjing was the capitol of the Chinese National(ist) Government under Chang Kai-shek, the Japanese army's primary opponent at the time. As such it was a viable military target in the general sense.

The second is that the inhabitants of Nanjing had provided substantial aid to Japan's 'enemy' prior to and during the battle for Nanjing (in this case the National(ist) Chinese army under Chang Kai-shek) and that 'many' of its inhabitants had actually participated in active military action against the Japanese, and hence 'many' were not considered non-combatants. A large number of the defenders simply discarded their uniforms and attempted to blend in with the civilian population.

For a country/military/group of combatants (or whatever) to have been guaranteed/afforded the protections of the Geneva Conventions up through WWII, they had to be signatories to the Conventions (in general) and to the specific Articles governing the actions in question. Japan was a signatory to the Conventions and to the specific Articles governing the behavior in question, so was National(ist) China. Hence, under the Conventions Japan was required to afford the protections in said Articles to either the Chinese Army or the civilian inhabitants of National(ist) China.

IF the inhabitants of Nanjing had not aided the National(ist) Army they would have been considered non-combatants under the Conventions, and Japan would have been unquestionably criminal in its behavior under its own obligations to the Conventions, regardless of whether the National(ist) Government were signatories. In effect, the applicable Articles were partially intended to discourage the various signatories from doing just what Chang Kai-shek did, ie put the civilian populace in harm's way and/or give the enemy a reason for reprisal.

While such actions would be considered to be criminal today, reprisals against civilians who have aided the enemy (even if no longer engaging in such actions) was not considered a universal law (regardless of who had and had not signed the Conventions) until after the 1949 Geneva Convention. In fact, it has been/is still argued that the largest part of the 1949 Geneva Convention was devoted to clarifying such issues.

As I have mentioned in other threads discussing similar matters, the above principles are a large part of the reason why the Allied countries were not charged with war crimes for their behavior during such things as the strategic bombing campaigns (US&UK vs Germany/US vs Japan), unrestricted submarine warfare (Germany vs Allies, US vs Japan), and a bunch of other activities that would require more time and space than available here. Another reason (obviously) is that the Allies won.
 
Last edited:
The Nanjing Massacre was well-reported at the time. See, for example, The Nanjing Atrocities Reported in the U.S. Newspapers, 1937-38 | Readex
The atrocities were also reported in the Japanese press of the time.

I always love raw data to understand facts. Thanks for sharing the report, swamp.

Frankly, Japanese soldiers look modest in the report.
Chinese soldiers should not have disguised civilians in the battle field like a big city of Nanjing as well as committing atrocities like looting, raping and killing their own people in other cities like Shanghai when they had to retreat beside torturing and executing captured Japanese soldiers and civilians by cutting the body part by part into pieces to behead finally though I know these were not necessarily unusual scenes in China. This is why the lesson "Don't be captured alive" came from the 1st Sino-Japanese War in 1894.

I am obliged to think that the so-called Nanjing massacre was picked up for the court of Military Tribunal in Tokyo not only to execute Japanese war leaders but to neutralize another atrocities in Hiroshima and Nagasaki now.

By the way, the Battle of Nanjing was proudly introduced as a great victory to the Japanese people.
 
Last edited:
Penguin Perspective:
What made war inevitable was the empire-building + militant nationalism mindset that held sway in Tokyo. That mindset was divided in 1941 about going to war, and divided in 1945 about surrender. The thread thesis "What if Japan didn't start WWII/PTO" is the thesis "What if Hirohito executed Tojo, then summoned the war council and spoke to them with his foot on Tojo's severed head". I'm postulating that nothing less drastic would have prevented WWII/PTO.

I suppose a "Paul on the road to Damascus" dream showing Hirohito the consequence of WWII/PTO might persuade such extreme action.
What to do instead? (energy, both physical and political, can easily be redirected, but seldom "just parked in the corner").

Offer to Western Europe nations that Japan will mine, refine, and deliver Colony resources to fight Germany, for a price of
1: Leave China, Manchuko, and Korea to Japan,
2: A portion of the refined materials goes to Japan.
3: Leaving China but retaining Manchuko and Korea might be an acceptable carrot to encourage European/US agreement.

Result: Japan sees us Gaijin as useful tools in their building a supreme war engine, but Asian Communist powers (including Soviet) are the target, not DANZAC nations or colonies.
 
"What if Hirohito executed Tojo, then summoned the war council and spoke to them with his foot on Tojo's severed head".
To anybody who "supposedly" understands the nature of imperial Japan, this is pure fantasy. The Emperor hovered above the level of actual geopolitics and only displayed mild approval or disapproval as a matter of tradition, and Hirohito was not a particularly assertive emperor as the Meiji went, but very dedicated to formal tradition in government. He shocked the inner circle when he asserted himself about ending the war and wished to speak to the people in his own voice. He didn't have the means at hand to do what you propose.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, it's fantasy. We all know what happens. Why post about anything, other than finding sources of esoteric aircraft information?
This is a place with folks who like talking airplanes. It's when threads go off topic I start picking up the good stuff. Like WHY tapping airplanes with airplanes is not good. The P-47 "Churn". The drag coefficients of ironing boards. Most Forum members are quite knowledgeable. In my day to day life no one is into history, aviation or otherwise. Where else can I read "what if this event didn't happen" or "what if this engine had that supercharger?" from people who know what they're talking about? All fantasy.
This is a great thread.
 
I think we're agreeing that stopping WWII/PTO from inside Japan is pure fantasy.
I agree. My point in the opening post wasn't to stop the war, but was to give Japan a little more time to gain a wider and more accurate view of how the ETO war was playing out. In October-November 1941 it looked like the Germans were about to take Moscow and Leningrad was soon to fall. By end of March 1942, the Germans have been pushed back, and Japan's embassy in Moscow can't have but noticed the massive scale-up of seemingly endless Soviet forces. And by now the USA has declared war on Germany.

Back to the beginning, it's now April 1, 1942 and Germany and her allies are getting their asses kicked, what does Japan do?
 
... leave the US in the Pacific alone ... for the time being .... but attack the Britsh at Hong Kong and Singapore ... and the Dutch and French colonies ... none of this will mobilize the US Public to the extent that Pearl Harbor did.
This gives Japan what it needs .. resources and oil ... and bases for securing lines of communication.
 
The French colonies are already under Japanese occupation, at least FIC. Malaya has rubber and tin, but it's the DEI oil that's needed. How about Japan ignore both the USA and UK and invades the DEI from FIC and Formosa? The British in Malaya and the Sarawak (a fantastic tour for British history buffs, BTW) won't have any forces to intervene, especially with Rommel besieging the Brits in North Africa and Malta under risk.
 
Last edited:
Would the oil production from DEI be enough for the Japanese needs? If so that might be a possibility.
Oh yes. This is pre-discovery of the major oil fields in the Middle East, North Sea and Nigeria, etc. The DEI was one of the world's largest known deposits, and it was sweet crude, meaning it could be pumped directly out of the ground into the warships - though this did cause injector damage and was thus only done near the end of the war.

Here's IMO an ultimate what if, Japan discovers earlier and is able to exploit its own oil reserves. These are modest reserves, but may have bought Japan time. As it was Japan didn't found its national oil exploration and extraction arm until 1955, see progress here.
 
Last edited:
Provided roughly -

Oil suppy ca. 1940
Import 92%
Domestic production 8%
Stock 200%

Oil consumption ca. 1940
IJN 22%
IJA 8%
Civilian 70%

If no war, no import and no consumption by IJA and Civilian as IJA depends on self-procurement and Civilian depends on coal,
IJN can consume 14% from stock every year for 14.3 years (200% / 14% = 14.3 years). Japan must find solution within this period.

Reference source:
http://hinode.8718.jp/images/pdf/war_and_oil.pdf
https://detail.chiebukuro.yahoo.co.jp/qa/question_detail/q1320719753
http://www.my-adviser.jp/column/detail.php?id=1369
https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/3974.pdf
 
Does yous have Netflix? If yous do then checks out Know your enemy - Japan. It has stuff in it relevant. Has a warning that's its offensive by today's standards but then agains what ain't?

In my excellent thread Russo Japanese War I agreed with me 100% as that guy is genius. The bigger the victory the bigger the hunger for more victory. The more you win the more you want
 
Korea in the WWII period had no known exploitable oil fields. Production of crude oil did not begin until the 1990s, and today they produce only about 108,000 barrels/day.
 

Users who are viewing this thread