Parsifal, you have a wrong idea about the Russian military in the Far East during the war. The Russians were on the brink of collapse in 1941 and they stripped the forces in the East to fight the Germans. The divisions were paper divisions, usually at regiment strength and equiped with no modern tanks, no heavy artillery and other obsolete weapons. Sure, you can keep all the forces there but then there is nothing left to stop the Germans in the West.
Again, the Japanese were outnumbered 2:1 at Khalkin Gol and they inflicted more casualties than they received. The total Japanese defeat is not backed up by the casualty numbers. The Soviets suffered horrible losses even with a Japanese army surrounded! And in 1941/1942 the Japanese would outnumber the Soviets 2:1. Do the math
Stavka directives #170149 and #170150 issued 16 march 1942 for the Far East fronts clearly show what kind of war Soviet Command expected in the case of Japanese attack. Far East troops should do their best to wear down Japanese in fortified regions during first 7-10 days of war,"defend at all costs" several key positions deep in the soviet territory until reinforcements arrive.
This clearly shows that the Japanese were expected to penetrate deep into Soviet territory. This also means that the railroads would also be cut. And how can you expect to receive reinforcements when the railroads are cut?
Kris
Hi Kris
The hypothetical posed the question that Japan attack Russia instead of independantly attacking the western allies. The assumption here is that Japan not sign the non-agressiuon pact, or break it, and that they attack in concert with the Germans in June 1941.
Throughout 1941, the Soviets maintained a strong military presence in the Far East, until they were absolutely sure that the Japanese were not going to attack. Once they did work out they were not under threat, Zhukov and his army, were trasported to the west. This was a movement of approximately 300000 men and their equipment, it took approximately 3 months to complete (available rolling stock was the main reason for the slower movement of troops in 1941 compared to 1945, plus in 1945 it was only a movement of personnel that occurred, the troops transferred in '45 were re-equipped from local factories).
However it is wrong to suggest that the defences were completely denuded after the movements to the west in the last quarter of 1941. 1st and 2nd Far Eastern Fronts immediately raised levies to replace those troops that had been transferred. The records I have show the Soviet Far eastern forces at about 1.2 million men, dropping to 0.9 by November, and then returning to just over 1 million men in the first quarter of 1942. thereafter the figures remained remarkably static, though I am fairly certain that the properly trained elements would on a routine basis be shipped west. There were fluctuating numbers of aircraft, but a typical figure was around 2500 aircraft at any given time, except in the fall and winter of 1941 and early 1942, when it was about a thord of that total.
The reason that such strong forces were maintained in the east was primarily because Stalin was paranoid about a two front war, (and hence the existence of the Stavka directives you refer to....issued incidentally at a time the far Eastern Garrisons were at their weakest....esentially "what do we do until the forces are replaced???" You omit some important supplements from these directives, incidentally, about how and the timing of the raising of those replacements), and as a consequence, never let his force levels in that theatr drop too low. There was never any time when the Japanese forces achieved a 2:1 majority, I'd like to know your source for that claim for verification. Mine is principally a book I have called "
The Soviet War Against Japan" It may be argued that if they could reinforce Manchuria from China they would reach a 2:1 advantage, but it never happened historically.
By early 1945, before the big transfer of personnel occured there were just over a million troops in the Far East, organized into 32 Rifle Divs, 12 Infantry Brigades, 8 Tank Brigades two Tank and one Mech Corps. Against this number the japanese had 1.2 million men, organized into 40 Inf, 7 Cav 23 Independant brigades and 2 armoured brigades. The Japanese maintained a force of about 1200 aircraft throughout the war, though again they would temporaily increase this by another 500-1000 if China were abandoned.
Your claims about Khalkin Gol do not accord to my main sources. In this case I rely on the book "
Dirty Little Secrets of WW 2" by Dunningan and Nofi
and an article writen by a colleague of theirs, Richard Berg some years earlier in "
Strategy Tactics"According to these sources, the Soviets were initially outnumbered by about 3:1 by the attacking Japanese, However as the Soviets poured additional troops into the battle, the balance did tip in their favour, such that in the finish about 70000 men were used to encircle 40000 Japanese troops. What isnt included in this is that the Japanese were pouring another 3 divs into the battle, or about an additional 50-60000 men. For an offensive operation, an advantager of 3:1 is the normal advantage needed. The Soviets when on the defensive were outnumbered about 3:1, and when on the attack, they outnumbered the Japanese by about 70/40. Thats not even 2:1, and well short of the idel 3:1 generally regarded as necessaary for an offensive.
In terms of casualties, there is no evidence I know of that the Soviets were slaughtered. The sources I quoted report total Japanese caulaties at 18000 killed or wounded, with another 3000 captured. Total casualties were therefore about 22000 Japanese. On the Soviet side, there were 23000 casualties, killed or wounded (8000 dead, 15000 wounded) . Soviets taken prisoner were never reported, but if we assume a similar or lesser number to the japanese (on the basis that the Soviets maintained resistance and were not forced to surrender), Soviet losses are likely to be in the order of 25000. Thats hardly a one sided massacre. In the air, the Soviets appear to have achieved pretty credible reults as well, far from the usual one sided massacres claimed in most western accounts (which are exclusively based on Japanese claims).
One thing worth noting is that with no attack on the west the Far east will receive unfettered reinfocement and re-supply from the allies. Japan historically was scrupulous in not attacking Rusian flagged Lend lease ships headed for Vladivostock. In this scenario, i think it reasonable to assume they would observe the same to neutral allied shipping, given the Japanese had not attacked the allies as originally posed
