Well the Abrams are already reported as starting to arrive in September.
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Well the Abrams are already reported as starting to arrive in September.Will Ukraine have ATACMS, Abrams and Vipers?
With about ninety to one hundred days until the first Ukrainian snowfall of autumn/winter 2023/2024, I think we must accept that Ukraine's anticipated big spring 2023 offensive where they retake Melitopol and/or reach the border with Crimea will occur in spring/summer 2024. Until then I envision that the ever-strengthening AFU will continue chipping away at Russia's defensive wall and conducting ever deeper PGM strikes against Russian logistics and command centres, while slowly yet consistently moving forward so that the AFU can overwinter closer to their 2024 objectives.
So, what do the opposing AFU and Russian forces look like when the Rasputitsa dries up in May/June 2024? Will Ukraine have ATACMS, Abrams and Vipers? NATO's production of artillery shells should be well up to speed. How about more mine clearing and breakthrough kit for Ukraine? And what of Russia?
Probably similar to this one: Lilalu Badeente Influencerin EnteI think Putin is definitely living in a fantasy world. One of the comments he made yesterday was that the Russian Navy would receive 30 new ships this year. I don't quite know where he is getting his ships from
It says a lot that Russia were ready and waiting. They were able to spring the Ambush from well prepared positions and hit the Ukraine forces hard, but still lost. The Ukraine forces involved were in a nightmare scenario and still came out on top.'The Russians were waiting for us': Ukraine troops describe tougher fight than expected
They rode into a kill zone. The timing was off. Many men were lost. In the end, they recaptured the ruined village of Staromaiorske, claiming Ukraine's biggest advance for weeks.www.reuters.com
So much of a blockade.Turks and Greeks have NATO backing. But don't mess with an Israeli ship.
View: https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1686052036113055759?s=61&t=bmtNxWabcsIKJ6TkHkd-SA
I pretty much agree with you and Thump. I hope there is a serious collapse in the Russian lines and the AFU can close the distance to Crimea, cutting off the land bridge. If the land bridge could be made untenable and the Kerch Bridge's utility be further restricted, it would strengthen Ukraine's position in the eyes of the West. Ideally this must happen before Putin is gone. A replacement tsar could sound "reasonable" by saying "we pull out of Luhansk (Donbas too?) but we keep Crimea." I could see the less committed allies caving in to that. If Ukraine has demonstrably cut off Crimea (the water supply is already cut), establish a bridgehead by the Nova Kakhovka dessert as well as closing in on Berdiansk or Mariupol, I could see a more united western front.With about ninety to one hundred days until the first Ukrainian snowfall of autumn/winter 2023/2024, I think we must accept that Ukraine's anticipated big spring 2023 offensive where they retake Melitopol and/or reach the border with Crimea will occur in spring/summer 2024. Until then I envision that the ever-strengthening AFU will continue chipping away at Russia's defensive wall and conducting ever deeper PGM strikes against Russian logistics and command centres, while slowly yet consistently moving forward so that the AFU can overwinter closer to their 2024 objectives.
So, what do the opposing AFU and Russian forces look like when the Rasputitsa dries up in May/June 2024? Will Ukraine have ATACMS, Abrams and Vipers? NATO's production of artillery shells should be well up to speed. How about more mine clearing and breakthrough kit for Ukraine? And what of Russia? Presumably they'll spend the winter further constructing their defensive wall.
I agree with a lot of what has been said and we all agree that logistics is the big issue. If the railway bridge can be broken and the key parts of the land bridge be restricted that Russia will find it difficult to supply the population and armed forces in Crimea. A long cold winter with few supplies might well end the Russian resolve.I pretty much agree with you and Thump. I hope there is a serious collapse in the Russian lines and the AFU can close the distance to Crimea, cutting off the land bridge. If the land bridge could be made untenable and the Kerch Bridge's utility be further restricted, it would strengthen Ukraine's position in the eyes of the West. Ideally this must happen before Putin is gone. A replacement tsar could sound "reasonable" by saying "we pull out of Luhansk (Donbas too?) but we keep Crimea." I could see the less committed allies caving in to that. If Ukraine has demonstrably cut off Crimea (the water supply is already cut), establish a bridgehead by the Nova Kakhovka dessert as well as closing in on Berdiansk or Mariupol, I could see a more united western front.
I didn't think in the post-Royal Arsenal et al era the Brits had any artillery production capability left. Certainly nothing like the below?Regarding the supply of ammunition to Ukraine the UK will increase its production capacity of 155mm shells eight fold from the end of September.
No we have always kept a minimum production for the heavy Artillery shells but BAe have been given a £400 m order for ammunition and this has enabled them to modernise one production line introduce a new production line.I didn't think in the post-Royal Arsenal et al era the Brits had any artillery production capability left. Certainly nothing like the below?
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UgShcXoqHcU&pp=ygUXdXMgYXJ0aWxsZXJ5IHByb2R1Y3Rpb24%3D
I didn't think in the post-Royal Arsenal et al era the Brits had any artillery production capability left. Certainly nothing like the below?
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UgShcXoqHcU&pp=ygUXdXMgYXJ0aWxsZXJ5IHByb2R1Y3Rpb24%3D
I guess you could say its very irresponsible. But then again when have theSoviets, er I mean the Russians ever been responsible adults?
We make damned good ice cream too!Really? You're comparing the US which has 6 times the population, 6 times the GDP, and goodness knows how much larger in physical land mass when compared to the UK. Hardly a balanced analysis of the situation.
The Brits can build 2 aircraft carriers, develop their own tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and artillery, their own light weapons, they have one of the largest jet engine companies in the world, and have major stakes in aircraft design, engineering, and manufacture...and yet you thought they couldn't make their own ammunition?
Your comment really is quite startling in its apparent belief that the UK and US are even in the same league when it comes to weapon production capacity.
I think Putin is definitely living in a fantasy world. One of the comments he made yesterday was that the Russian Navy would receive 30 new ships this year. I don't quite know where he is getting his ships from.
My estimate is that since 2000, the Russian navy has received about six to seven new ships each year, which on the face of it, is good going. However when you consider that approx 80 of the 159 ships weigh about 100 tons (52 patrol boats and 28 landing craft) it becomes less impressive.
The question is how can he ramp up from 6 to 30 ships a year, when on average half of the six weighed in at about 100 tons?
The answer is of course, he cannot. Ships cost money, demand resources, complex technology, plus of course people to build and man them, none of which he has to spare.
People in desperate situations tend to make desperate claims, and this is only one of many. It's one his Admirals know isn't achievable and this with the other comments we hear about what his senior officers think of him, isn't going to help him in any way
Untie your knickers there my boy. I'm saying I didn't know the British had any capacity to produce 155mm rounds, and am wondering what it looks like, and suggesting that it wouldn't compare to the US, for the reasons of scale you and the rest of us are aware of. Settle down, have a pint and enjoy the summer evening. Sheesh, some come here for interesting convo, others come to knock others down. The choice is yours.Your comment really is quite startling
I pretty much agree with you and Thump. I hope there is a serious collapse in the Russian lines and the AFU can close the distance to Crimea, cutting off the land bridge. If the land bridge could be made untenable and the Kerch Bridge's utility be further restricted, it would strengthen Ukraine's position in the eyes of the West. Ideally this must happen before Putin is gone. A replacement tsar could sound "reasonable" by saying "we pull out of Luhansk (Donbas too?) but we keep Crimea." I could see the less committed allies caving in to that. If Ukraine has demonstrably cut off Crimea (the water supply is already cut), establish a bridgehead by the Nova Kakhovka dessert as well as closing in on Berdiansk or Mariupol, I could see a more united western front.