"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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GrauGeist said:
Read a statement earlier made by the Ukraine MoD, who stated that the "main" part of their offensive has not been launched yet. He stated (as he has earlier) "you'll know it when you see it".

So as has been mentioned here a while back, it appears that Ukraine is probing and pressuring Russian lines all across the board as a precursor.
Click to expand...

Given how the Ukrainians are grinding down the southern front, I think they're holding their mobile reserves for the moment when they know they have mine-lanes wide enough to allow a mass of maneuver. In my view it's similar to Monty's chewing through the minefields at 2nd Alamein, though obviously taking longer.

The Ukrainians are clearly not deploying their reserves to the northeast even as the Russians are trying to shape a threat there. The Ukrainians seem to be holding that front with minimal forces ... for some reason.
 
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What it looks to me, is that the Ukrainian Army is trying to draw the Russians out by applying pressure in key areas.

Attacking several bridges are, from what I'm seeing, a distractive disruption.

I suspect that Ukraine is creating hotspots that's forcing the Russians to juggle men and material to counter the threat, which in turn consumes fuel (for machines and stomachs), strains logistics and presents their whereabouts for better tracking.

And I'm willing to bet that all of this is a concerted distraction to draw eyes away from where they are going to strike in force - in other words, I'm thinking that they are going to make a big push in an area that is least likely to be planned on.

Sort of like how Calais was the obvious landing spot, not Normandy.
 
GrauGeist said:
What it looks to me, is that the Ukrainian Army is trying to draw the Russians out by applying pressure in key areas.

Attacking several bridges are, from what I'm seeing, a distractive disruption.

I suspect that Ukraine is creating hotspots that's forcing the Russians to juggle men and material to counter the threat, which in turn consumes fuel (for machines and stomachs), strains logistics and presents their whereabouts for better tracking.

And I'm willing to bet that all of this is a concerted distraction to draw eyes away from where they are going to strike in force - in other words, I'm thinking that they are going to make a big push in an area that is least likely to be planned on.

Sort of like how Calais was the obvious landing spot, not Normandy.
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I like your thinking here, but I think attacking the Russian logistics -- if not "tipping the Ukrainian hand" -- still allows the latter to exercise more operational decisionin'. I also think that the Ukrainians understand that severing Crimea is the decisive criterion in this war. Once that happens, Rostov is done as a supply base, and the Donets Basin can be rolled up from the south.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
If Ukraine can isolate Crimea, starving them out is a matter of time. I see this attack as a step in that direction ("Gosh, now you've got two bridges to fix"). There's two other routes to supply Crimea, both running past the Azov Sea and reliant upon the Russians holding the roadnet in Zaporizhia. The Ukrainians have damaged the Kerch Bridge, now have the next-closest bridge to the west stuffed, and have two more routes to shut down.

I believe this is not an accident. I think they're isolating Crimea's supply-lines in preparation for an attack to be set up when the southern offensive compresses the supply lines sufficiently.
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I agree and think that the main offensive will be much later - around when the snows first start like last year
 
Some artillery statistics.
US production rate of 155 mm shells. Before the invasion (Feb 2022): 14,000 per month. Current: 24,000. The target for the 2025 fiscal year: 90,000.
Consumption at the front line by Ukraine: 8,000 per day, according to FT.
Bulgaria and South Korea will supply 155 mm and Japan is considered.

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www.ft.com www.ft.com
Beyond the paywall:
archive.vn

US faces hurdles in ramping up munitions supplies for Ukraine war eff…

archived 1 Aug 2023 07:45:11 UTC
archive.vn archive.vn
 
This link might be useful for folk here. Radio Free Europe maintains a dashboard of Russian forces in Crimea, together with satellite imagery of some locations. It seems to be updated pretty regularly and, crucially, the sources are cited:

www.rferl.org

Interactive Map: Occupied, Militarized Crimea

As Ukrainian leaders vow to reclaim all territories seized by Russia, Moscow has prepared extensive defensive measures, particularly in Crimea, a region unlawfully annexed in 2014.
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org

Here's a screenshot:

1690903409989.png
 
buffnut453 said:
Really? You're comparing the US which has 6 times the population, 6 times the GDP, and goodness knows how much larger in physical land mass when compared to the UK. Hardly a balanced analysis of the situation.

The Brits can build 2 aircraft carriers, develop their own tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and artillery, their own light weapons, they have one of the largest jet engine companies in the world, and have major stakes in aircraft design, engineering, and manufacture...and yet you thought they couldn't make their own ammunition?

Your comment really is quite startling in its apparent belief that the UK and US are even in the same league when it comes to weapon production capacity.
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To be honest I don't blame people for thinking that way. Approx fifteen to twenty years ago there was a time when we didn't even produce our own 7.62 ammo. I went to Bisley for a day shooting on the long ranges and we had to use Indian ammunition. The production of Rarden 30mm had been stopped completely and we had to get it from another country and its only recently been restarted. No doubt there are other examples.
I think it only really changed when Bae got into the weapons industry in a big way and expanded into areas outside aerospace, but that should be double checked
 
buffnut453 said:
This link might be useful for folk here. Radio Free Europe maintains a dashboard of Russian forces in Crimea, together with satellite imagery of some locations. It seems to be updated pretty regularly and, crucially, the sources are cited:

www.rferl.org

Interactive Map: Occupied, Militarized Crimea

As Ukrainian leaders vow to reclaim all territories seized by Russia, Moscow has prepared extensive defensive measures, particularly in Crimea, a region unlawfully annexed in 2014.
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org

Here's a screenshot:

View attachment 732028
Click to expand...
Looking at all those coastal defense positions, I can't help but think of Singapore.
 
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