"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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So far, russian ship blockade of the ukrainian Black Sea coast is as firm as the nuclear threats:


We should sail an American-flagged grain carrier there to point out their bluff. Hell, transfer flags for any carrier willing to do so and challenge the Russians to look askance at 'em.
 
Some artillery statistics.
US production rate of 155 mm shells. Before the invasion (Feb 2022): 14,000 per month. Current: 24,000. The target for the 2025 fiscal year: 90,000.
Consumption at the front line by Ukraine: 8,000 per day, according to FT.
Bulgaria and South Korea will supply 155 mm and Japan is considered.
Beyond the paywall:

I don't think Ukraine is using 8,000 155mm shells per day. That's more likely usage across all calibers - 105mm, 122mm, 152mm, 155mm and 203mm. It might also include heavy mortars (120mm and 240mm).

I also don't think Ukraine is consuming 8000 shells per day. The article noted that consumption is "up to" 8000 shells per day, so that likely the upper limit. From the estimates I've seen based on identified fire missions, Ukrainian shell consumption is averaging somewhere around 4,000 per day, or maybe a little less.

That's still a lot, but with the US and EU both ramping up production and purchasing shells out of South Korea, Japan, Turkey and who knows where else, it's not totally unmanageable.
 
I've watched it already. It's fairly unconvincing.
I disagree. Short of a Russian collapse (probably involving the removal of Putin) or Crimea deciding to break away from Russia, I don't see Ukraine easily taking Crimea by force/direct assault. I would love to see Ukraine reclaim Crimea but I remain sceptical as to its likelihood.
 

Rusia attack the port of Izmail, just across the Danube from Romania. A failure in the impact point could end with the drones or missiles landing in a NATO member:

 
I disagree. Short of a Russian collapse (probably involving the removal of Putin) or Crimea deciding to break away from Russia, I don't see Ukraine easily taking Crimea by force/direct assault. I would love to see Ukraine reclaim Crimea but I remain sceptical as to its likelihood.

I said nothing about "easily". But it is a stated war aim of Ukraine and I'm not sure Zelenskyy can survive politically in backing away from it.

Additionally, Ukraine could make it very hard to maintain Russian forces in supply with a little more advancement on the southern front.
 
About amputations and wounded. With the attempt to estimate WIA and KIA.
"Germany's Ottobock...estimates the number of amputees at about 50,000.... At the lower end, the Houp Foundation...puts the number of serious injuries caused by the war at 200,000. About 10% of serious injuries typically require amputations..."
"Out of 100 soldiers wounded within about 3 miles of the front line, 36% suffered very severe injuries, while between 5% and 10% of all deployed troops were killed..."


Original article:
Beyond the paywall:
 
 
It shows what impressive intelligence Ukraine has regarding the Russian flight operations
 

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