"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (7 Viewers)

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Pics from the damaged russian tanker Sig, aparent attack to the airbase for ukrainian Su-24s armed with Storm Shadows, insight to the ukrainian air defenses, russian sources claim troops have taken Novoselivske, north of Svatove, after a series of assaults over previous days and couple of news more:

 

The Moscow-appointed head of Crimea said the Chonhar bridge to the peninsula, which was annexed from Ukraine by Moscow in 2014, had been damaged by a missile strike. Another of the three road links between Crimea and Russian-occupied parts of mainland Ukraine, near the town of Henichesk, was shelled and a civilian driver wounded, a Moscow-appointed official said.

Traffic was halted on a third bridge, linking Russia to Crimea, after both sides said a Ukrainian naval drone full of explosives struck a Russian fuel tanker vessel overnight from Friday to Saturday, the second such attack in 24 hours.

The attacks are making it increasingly hard to get on and off the Black Sea peninsula, which is of military importance to Moscow as well as a popular tourist destination for Russians.



This sure looks like shaping the battlefield to me.
 
Check out the missile under the wing - AGM-88 HARM:

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Nice. I have to admit I was drawn to the red head in the centre, but I'm a simple man married to my own Ukrainian. Now, is that a Su-24 to the left or another Fulcrum?

We in NATO call them the Fulcrum, Fencer, Frogfoot and Flanker, but do the Ukrainians have names for their MiGs and Sukhois? Or are they simply referred to as MiG-29, Su-24, Su-25 and Su-27?
 
He's reported to have said, ""It's this kind of sneaky missile attack that can't be forgiven. It's like a wounded animal snapping back."
Considering that Russia has been the master of the "sneaky missile attack" for over a year now, I'm guessing that the last thing Ukraine is seeking, is forgiveness.
 
That is a Fulcrum in the background. Vertical tail is different and the SU-24 is quite a bit bigger, think F-111ish size. You can also see the aft end of what looks like an AA-11 Archer missile under its wing (it's white).
 
I am sure most of you have seen this but the Russian Logistics issues have increased significantly over the last few days.

Source ISW
What happened? According to Russian occupation authorities, two bridges on the Crimean peninsula illegally annexed by Russia were attacked. Specifically, the Chonhar Bridge was hit and damaged by a missile. A bridge northwest of Henichesk was also hit by several missiles. For this reason, motor traffic was only possible along two connecting routes to the mainland.
According to the ISW, the Chonhar Bridge and the bridge at Henichesk are the key routes for the Russians in the war. The Chonhar Bridge was the shortest connection between the Crimean peninsula and the southern front.

From this, the ISW concludes that a "major bottleneck" in Russian logistics will now be the result there. Moreover, according to military experts, the roads to which Russia has now diverted traffic are "within artillery range" of Ukrainian groups in Kherson oblast
.

For Russia to have to rely on logistics, which are in any degree, within range of Ukraine artillery has got to be a very bad place. They will of course want to patch the bridges up ASAP, but Ukraine seem to be able to hit them on a regular basis. A significant increase in AA equipment are almost certainly going to have to be transferred to that area.
 
I am sure most of you have seen this but the Russian Logistics issues have increased significantly over the last few days.
Ukraine has been hitting Russian logistics for months now, but has yet to make any of the significant gains the West was expecting of the spring counteroffensive. Russia may increasingly have serious challenges to supply, support and rotate their forces, but Ukraine still needs to sort out how to breach the 800 km defensive line and the thousands of antitank mines and move on Melitopol. Hitting logistics is important, that's how you win wars, but where is the Ukrainian counteroffensive? At what point will Russian logistics be sufficiently reduced? Will the much-vaulted 2023 spring counteroffensive need to be renamed the 2024 summer operation? Without a significant increase in breaching capability to support a major mechanized thrust, no matter the state of Russian logistics the Ukrainians are stuck in a Somme-like slog until well into 2024.
 
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You are correct but these are significant blows, which will have an impact. It has taken time to get to this place but Ukraine are now here and do seem to be able to hit targets like these bridges.

As for the counter offensive, personally I am expecting it to be in the early part of next year. You cannot launch an attack without the enemy being worn down. Without airpower Ukraine have to pick the right time, its suicide not to. I wouldn't fancy being a Russian soldier spending the winter with very limited supplies whilst the Ukraine forces get stronger.
I cannot see Ukraine getting more modern aircraft and infrastructure in place before the Spring and have been bitterly disappointed by the slow response from all nations, to such an obvious need. With luck by spring some of it will be in place, but the excuses being trotted out by nations hardly hold water.
 
That is a Fulcrum in the background. Vertical tail is different and the SU-24 is quite a bit bigger, think F-111ish size. You can also see the aft end of what looks like an AA-11 Archer missile under its wing (it's white).

Hate to question a fighter pilot but isn't that a FLANKER rather than a FULCRUM? The long, slightly drooping nose and the additional frame on the canopy look more like the Su-27 to my eyes.
 

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