Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules
Wow, this wasn't expected.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to replace Ukraine’s top general
Removal of Valeriy Zaluzhny would mark biggest shake-up of military command since Russia’s full-scale invasionwww.ft.com
The Generals serve at the whim of the elected Head of State. Zaluzhnyi is no miracle worker, and if or when the exit comes, there will be other generals who can provide a fresh approach. In 2023 Ukraine took its best Western supplied kit and spread it across a 800km wide front in penny packets, rather than concentrating it in one smashing fist. The latter is apparently what the Pentagon wanted. Someone has the own the fact that after tens of billions in lethal aid throughout 2023 the UAF gained a few hundred sqkm.Zaluzhny: Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Denies Firing of Commander-in-Chief
The rumor mill went into overdrive on Monday evening after claims made by several politicians and journalists on social media. The president's office has also denied the reports.www.kyivpost.com
US/NATO intel believes most of the Russian combat aircraft cannot detect the modern low observable S&T/TWS phased array radars - for whatever reason (it is presumed due to expense) most their systems have not been updated. Most of their combat aircraft can detect high power search and/or SAR/CW/PD lock-ons depending on the aircraft type and purpose. Unfortunately for most of today's Russian combat aircrew, systems like the Patriot use low observable phased array radars to search for and track their target, and to indicate the target. When you combine this with the ability to launch some variants of the missile without lock on before launch and use mid-course guidance to send the missile into the terminal basket - whereupon at longer ranges the targeting radar will 'blip' at high power to indicate the target, allowing the missile to lock on to the selected target with its onboard active terminal homing radar. At short to medium ranges the 'blip' may not even be needed, only a mid-course signal, and the first thing the target aircraft's pilot or REO will know of an incoming missile is the RWR signal from the missile's onboard active radar lock-on. The time from when the RWR goes off to impact when this is done well can be less than 2 seconds.
FINALLY.
The fact that the Pentagon wanted the AFU to use NATO tactics without the air power?The Generals serve at the whim of the elected Head of State. Zaluzhnyi is no miracle worker, and if or when the exit comes, there will be other generals who can provide a fresh approach. In 2023 Ukraine took its best Western supplied kit and spread it across a 800km wide front in penny packets, rather than concentrating it in one smashing fist. The latter is apparently what the Pentagon wanted. Someone has the own the fact that after tens of billions in lethal aid throughout 2023 the UAF gained a few hundred sqkm.
While I agree you basic points, Taiwan is equally probable - and maybe in concert with renewed escalation in Middle East via Iran.Where will the fault line break....?
Where did it break in 1950...?
At the 38th parallel. Korea.
Stalin 'permitting' Kim Sr. to invade the South. (Mao wasn't 'enthusiastic'.)
To test resolve.
In 1950 Stalin had been pushed back by the western Allies in Greece, in Iran, and most publicly, in Berlin.
Since 2022 Putin has continuously been surprised and pushed back.
In 2024 Putin is under enormous pressure to maintain an 'economy' and a maximum war effort. North Korea is a reliable partner with interior lines of supply. Couldn't be better.
Putin needs Kim Jr., IMO, to be his cat's paw, under the protection of Putin's 'nuclear umbrella'. "You don't
Cyber attacks and misinformation campaigns will intensify. This strategy has been rehearsed in Estonia and Ukraine and Russian and NorK hackers share the same mindset. Moscow University is for NorK students 'the Paris' of the universe.
I think the only thing that matters is how China and the USA react to NorK aggression.
South Korea, while hugely successful, is a society under enormous pressure.
The politics reflect that. South Korea is an Occupied Country facing a Communist Country that calls itself the 'True Korea' and peace is only maintained by 'truce'.
I believe the tripwire for what comes next will be the 38th.
mm
While the increasingly huge Russian losses in men and material are welcome, NATO did not expect all their billions of $ in lethal aid to achieve nearly zero territorial gains in 2023.The fact that the Pentagon wanted the AFU to use NATO tactics without the air power?
A fair POV for certain. And given the unplanned throttling back of US aid heading into 2024 due to domestic politics, it's probably lucky for the Ukrainians that they're not right now desperately fighting and exhausting the now seemingly-irreplaceable kit and ammunition in the suburbs of Melitipol, having used their best kit in 2023 to smash their way through the Suvorkin Line.With that money and material they stopped russians from advancing further + eliminated a huge amount of russian men and material. Good enough for me.