"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

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True. I have this dream of Ukraine filling a Russian-flagged cargo ship with twenty-thousand tons of TNT and sailing under the Kerch bridge, and then boom. For comparison, when the SS Mont-Blanc entered Halifax harbour on December 6, 1917 her cargo was 2,300 tons of picric acid, 500 tons of TNT, and 10 tons of guncotton. The resultant Halifax Explosion levelled much of the city and killed approximately 2,000 people and injured about 9,000.

Perhaps 20,000 tons is overkill, as we don't want the explosion to appear as a WMD to both NATO and a nuclear armed Putin. If PGMs are not available, how big of a boom do we need to destroy the bridge?
Or how about a bomb on one of those N Korean ships supplying ammo to Russia
 
I must've missed it When?

Right now.

Funding is in place and a couple of countries (Romania and possibly Moldova) are already shipping small amounts of 155mm and 122mm ammunition that have been purchased by either the Czech Republic or Norway. There was also an announcement by Germany at the end of February that they were shipping 120,000 rounds of ammunition in Soviet/Russian calibers - 152mm, 130mm and 122mm - but I think that's unrelated to this initiative.

Looks like the European funding will mostly be used to purchase ~300,000 122mm shells from former Soviet bloc/Warsaw Pact countries, like Bulgaria, Croatia and Albania. A further 500,000 155mm shell purchases are supposedly from a wider range of geographies. Countries I've seen mentioned as possible sources include Singapore, India, the Philippines, Thailand, South Africa, Israel and Egypt.

This comes in over and above the commitments from the EU, NATO and individual countries to supply ammunition to Ukraine.

The EU delivery commitment is expected to exceed 500,000 rounds of 155mm this year, although deliveries are likely to be weighted towards the second half of the year. NATO deliveries of 200,000 rounds of 155mm per year aren't likely to start until 2025.

Outside of that, Ukraine itself is buying new production artillery rounds from as many sources as it can negotiate. However, 155mm contract prices are reportedly up more than 50% on where they were before the war started. I also shudder to think about the premium makers of old Soviet calibers are charging.
 
I believe NK is shipping munitions by rail.
And on just one thin bridge between Russia and NK.


Juicy target there for Siberians sympathetic to Ukraine and/or sick of Russia and Putin.

 
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''...To further develop Ukraine's drone capabilities, Minister Blair committed to Canada joining the Ukraine Defense Contact Group's Drone Capability Coalition, co-led by Latvia and the United Kingdom. As a member of the Capability Coalition, Canada will continue to look for ways to boost Ukraine's drone capabilities...''

 
This is an increasingly worrisome narrative, that Ukraine is losing ground because of poor defensive preparations and through ignoring US-recommended offensive strategies.


"The disagreement over Avdiivka was a mirror image in reverse of Washington's frustrations with the Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer. In that case, Mr. Austin and other American officials urged Ukraine to focus its assault on one main effort along the 600-mile front line and press to break through Russian fortifications there."


This plays into a narrative of: "give us the kit so we can clear Russia from our land", and in reply the USA says, "why should we if you're not going to use our kit in the ways we know best?".

Assuming POTUS/Congress do not block things, by spring 2025 Ukraine will have modern F-16s, more Abrams, HIMARS, ATACMS, Patriots, PGMs, cluster munitions, antimining systems, and hundreds of thousands (millions?) more artillery shells. If Ukraine still can't force a breakthrough in summer/autumn 2025, but instead expend all this new Western kit on penny packets across the entire front, diplomatically things will be difficult by 2026, by which Zelenskyy would have been Ukraine's president for seven years.
 
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Former Ukraine army chief to become ambassador to UK

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