GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter XBe02Drvr
- Start date
Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules
Thumpalumpacus
Major
And yet he whines about "trust" as if he's earnt it. This is a feeble attempt at gaslighting.
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
The only conclusion I drew on this was this guy lost me within 30 seconds.
Really? I find him quite interesting and, as a current armor branch officer as well as armor historian, very useful to listen to. I don't completely agree though he makes very good points on both sides using propaganda and questioning where are the large Ukrainian army maneuver units (though the recent counter offensives may be answering that). May well be that it's very similar to the kinds of briefings and analysis I was familiar with at BN & BDE S-2 shops.
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
He may have a great background and may have some great points but his delivery is boring IMO. In my short and uneventful career in the military, I can see him being run off a podium by a higher ranking officer within minutes. I can use his clip as background noise to fall asleep!
Compare his narrative to Ward Carroll
Ward is a good entertainer, but I find it harder to follow his arguments. For information, I find this approach preferable. Thank you for explaining though, I do appreciate knowing that.
I'm not sure, but Captain Arkhipov didn't launch the torpedo out of a moral reservation against using nuclear weapons: He realized we weren't trying to sink the submarine flotilla he commanded. He realized they were using fairly low power charges and trying to scare them to the surface.
Likewise Lt. Col. Petrov didn't confirm the launch order as authentic because he figured it was unlikely to be real: Only one launch was registered at first, followed by another four over a window of a few minutes. Since the USSR & USA would have both launched massive numbers of missiles (for a variety of reasons, some of the launches would have probably been in a staggered fashion, but the numbers would be unmistakeable).
In November, 1979: NORAD had a false alarm which indicated 300 ballistic missile launches followed by another 1900 as a chaser. The data flowing in, as a I remember reading, listed all data as being authentic. Because it was a fairly low ebb during the Cold War (Afghanistan didn't occur until around Christmas of 1979), there was a decision made to actually call each of the sites and determine if the data flowing in was correct (fortunately, they reported nothing).
Ultimately, the cause was a simulator tape that had been put in, which ended up on the main-display. Since it didn't have "simulation" on it, it looked like the real thing. While the actual cause was never fully duplicated, the decision to ensure that there weren't any connections from where the simulator tape was inserted to the main-display appeared to have been made: Interestingly, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, there was a case where somebody put in a simulator tape which displayed a single incoming launch. Because most missiles in those days didn't have storable propellant (most used RP-1 and LOx), it would take around 10-15 minutes to ready the missile upon receiving orders to launch (that said, there was a Minuteman squadron/wing being brought online during this period).
I'm honestly amazed we survived the Cold War: The biggest possibilities of triggering a nuclear exchange included political miscalculation and failures of the early warning systems that could have triggered a nuclear release.
Political Miscalculation
1. Cuban Missile Crisis: The USSR was abjectly terrified of the fact that we put Jupiter missiles in Turkey (their distance made reaction time short, something which was already poor in those days owing to ballistic missile design), so they decided to do the same to us (We had also adopted a strategy of containing the USSR through encirclement, which they apparently wanted to subject us to as well). It went over a lot worse than they expected, though it didn't fully seem to register how close things were getting until Maj. Anderson was shot down over Cuba on October 27. An agreement was hashed out to agree to two terms, of which one was to remove the Jupiter missiles: We only addressed one part of the issue (remove the Jupiters, which we were planning to do so anyway), ignoring the other. It would appear the other side either didn't notice, or didn't feel like making anything worse.
2. Able Archer '83: The USSR had become extremely paranoid, which combined with: President Reagan's fiery rhetoric, the Strategic Defense Initiative (i.e. Project Star Wars), the presence of the Pershing II MRBM's and BGM-109 Gryphon's (a Tomahawk with a nuke) in Europe, and a NATO exercise planned for November (ironically within two weeks of my birth) had them convinced we were going to use the exercise as cover for a nuclear first-strike.
Since the USSR had considered similar ruses to justify invading Europe: It seemed plausible as, it was in alignment with their mentality. Since the low-flying capabilities of the BGM-109 made them difficult to shoot down, combined with the short flight time of the Pershing II's made reaction-time virtually nonexistent (something that made it impossible for them to order a retaliatory strike), and the misguided belief that the Pershing II had an earth-penetrating warhead designed to take out hardened command bunkers (it was originally conceived to carry such a warhead, but it was cancelled for one reason or another), as well as difficulty understanding what we meant when we used the term 'First Strike' (i.e. Does it mean: "We nuke them because we realize they're an imminent threat, and we shoot first to limit our losses"? Or does it mean: "We nuke them the instant we can catch them with their pants down to get them out of our hair for good"?), resulted in the belief that we not only were planning to execute a nuclear first-strike, but would be able to pull it off without any retaliation.
When the exercise occurred, there were some communications errors that further heightened their paranoia and, it was stated that, if the exercise had continued for another day: They would have launched a nuclear strike against us believing we were inches away from doing the same.
Errors/Failures of Early Warning Systems
These are just the one's I know about. None are classified, and there's probably other non-classified cases I don't readily recall right now.
1. October 5, 1960: Thule's BMEWS had just been brought online less than two weeks earlier, and one of the search sectors indicated radar-echoes that were consistent with dozens of ICBM launches. Fortunately, somebody remembered their political briefing and realized that Soviet Premier Kruschev was at the United Nations. Seems odd that they'd nuke us when their head of state is effectively in New York. Since they were unable to ascertain the impact point (something they had trouble doing reliably for a few years), and none of the other radars indicated anything, which led the belief it was erroneous.
It turned out that the false alarm was caused by radar echoes bouncing off the moon as it came over the horizon. I'm amazed the radar didn't read some seriously bizarre ranges as the moon ranges from 225000-253000 miles from earth, but ultimately they had improved the range-gating system to take care of that, and as the years went by, the full system would be brought online by 1964.
2. 11/24/1961: Communications failed between SAC, Thule, and NORAD. Since that looked to be a plausible set of places to get taken out should the USSR attack first. Fortunately, a B-52 performing the Thule Monitor mission was able to communicate with SAC, pointing out there appeared to be no damage (the fact that there wasn't a brilliant flash that burned out anybody's retinas, or a mushroom cloud extending dozens of thousands of feet into the air might have also been a good indication whatever happened, it wasn't nuclear).
The culprit was basically a supposedly redundant communication system that wasn't all that redundant. I don't remember what caused the failure, but the fact that the lines all flowed through one location, producing a single-point of failure basically did it.
3. Cuban Missile Crisis: There were at least two, and I'm not sure in what order they occurred, but here you go...
a. Simulator Tape
Already covered
b. Faulty Radar Message
Apparently there were two radar sites, one of which was new, but not as reliable as the older one (probably a mere function of it being brand new). A message indicates a missile inbound, but it's stated to be from the reliable site. Fortunately, the time to impact is a few minutes and when that expires and no earth-shattering kaboom results, the alarm goes away.
4. Non Specific False-Alarms, Late 1970's: We started putting up shitloads of satellites with a variety of scanners, of which infrared were among one of them. Since the USSR has loads of forests, much like parts of the United States, with some areas fairly dry, you get the occasional forest fire. The forest fire on an IR system looks like a massive thermal source that could set off the alarm for indicating an ICBM launch.
Fortunately, they were able to conclude these alarms were false for one reason or another. While I don't know the exact way they did, I would guess that it might include some of the following: The location of the thermal emission wasn't where a known ballistic missile site was; the plume wasn't rising and moving around, but remaining in place; optical systems indicated a massive forest fire and nothing else.
5. 11/9/1979 (NORAD False Alarm): Already covered.
6. June, 1980: NORAD would apparently send this test-message to SAC which would read something like "There are currently 000 missiles airborne" or something like that. All fine and dandy when the number only reads zeroes. Unfortunately a computer chip a few cents cheaper than a 2 liter bottle of pepsi caused some zeroes to read as 2's (i.e. "222 missiles airborne"), it produces a serious scare. The fact that the USSR had already invaded Afghanistan meant that the geopolitical situation was far more tense.
I'm not sure how that one was sussed out, but I'm relieved it was.
7. 9/26/1983: This one was Petrov's event, already covered.
8. 1/25/1995: That was not a typographical error, that was 1995, not 1985 (I was 11), the Cold War was over, and a Canadian Black Brant XII rocket sounding rocket was being readied for launch from Norway through the Aurora Borealis as part of a research project: As was the norm when launching spacecraft, the Russian Federation (probably all nuclear powers) was told specifically that this was being done to avoid fatal misunderstandings: Unfortunately, the message wasn't relayed to the top Generals, to President Yeltsin, and the Early Warning guys (guys who basically had the same job Lt. Col. Petrov had in 1983): All the people that should have been briefed on this.
So, they launch the rocket: As it starts heading on up, it was detected by Russian radar systems. The trajectory looks like it could be consistent with something coming out of the Barents Sea, where we had SSBN's at least during the Cold War. Because of the fact that one SLBM can carry multiple re-entry vehicles, and reaction time is shorter for a launch of this nature, as well as the fact that it's possible to have several warheads detonate as part of an "X-Ray Pin-Down" which would produced persistent energy that would destroy missiles attempting to be launched: They really start to panic, and it only gets worse when the rocket starts shedding stages. It looked very similar to an SLBM shot-gunning off it's RV's.
Predictably, Yeltsin is urged by his generals to launch a retaliatory strike, and given the Cheget (i.e. the Russian version of the Nuclear Football). Fortunately, he was pretty cool under pressure and, receiving no anomalous responses from satellites monitoring the missile-fields in the United States, a stand-down was ordered.
It hasn't stopped them from attacking Chernobyl, right?
And there you have it: You've just illustrated the danger of the Malignant Narcissist. An amoral, paranoid, and utterly self-absorbed person who literally sees himself as mattering more than any other entity on earth. A guy like that could be inclined to order missile launches in order to ensure that "if I go down, you go with me".
I'm not sure if I posted this earlier, but if I could draw people well, I probably would have made political cartoons like this. I would have probably not made it to 38!
Last edited:
at6
1st Sergeant
If the Russians run out of food, let them eat poop. No relief for Ivan.
Last edited:
probaby that was last one - "ownership changed, vehicle moved for repainting"Should show tanks being dragged away
Admiral Beez
Major
Love it. But a more accurate title is farmers helped, but the Ukrainian army led the ambush. No matter though, top points for team effort.
vikingBerserker
Lieutenant General
Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine
Ukraine's navy says the Orsk, which was used to ferry Russian troops, was hit in Berdyansk.
www.bbc.com
buffnut453
Captain
That damage NOT going to buff out. Scratch one landing ship!
I'm hearing 2 others are also on fire.
vikingBerserker
Lieutenant General
That's producing almost as much smoke as their carrier when it's underway.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
What a lovely present for me to wake up to. And I didn't get you anything.
I noticed some fire behind the Orsk. A second ship or dock equipment? Love all the secondary explosions. Guess they were a little tardy off loading.
