"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

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The current Russian push in the Donets is aimed specifically at preventing the Ukrainians from building up a reserve that can go on the offensive. Before anything else happens, that offensive needs to be stopped so that the Ukrainians can regroup their forces into an offensive configuration.
Assuming the US remains pro-Ukraine post-Nov 2024, I expect the Ukrainian offensive will come in spring 2025, with Crimea being retaken before end of 2026.
 
That sounds too optimistic to me. I think this war will drag on for another 10 years or so until the Russian government find an excuse to withdraw.

I don't think it's either-or. Russia losing Crimea need not mean the end of the war; indeed, I believe that such an embarrassment would make Russia that much more determined to keep fighting.

I suspect the war will last as long as Putin lasts.
 
At least one of the orcs had the good sense to use the kickstand.
 

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