"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (9 Viewers)

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Admiral Beez said:
One lucky Russian tank here. Was he all alone, just driving down some dirt road without any infantry or other support? It looks like he's lost.

Click to expand...

Right, at about 0:50 into the video the shot pulls back and we can see there's no friendly infantry within a few hundred meters even as the tank is barreling down a road that is closely invested with difficult wooded terrain. You can see that the tank fires a round to clear the woods at the intersection, only to be shot-at from the opposite side -- excellent tactics by the MANPATs team, it's a pity their shot went wide.
 
KYIV/SVITLODARSK, Ukraine, May 26 (Reuters) - Advancing Russian forces came closer to surrounding Ukrainian troops in the east, briefly seizing positions on the last highway out of a crucial pair of Ukrainian-held cities before being beaten back, a Ukrainian official said on Thursday.

Three months into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has abandoned its assault on the capital Kyiv and is trying to consolidate control of the industrial eastern Donbas region, where it has backed a separatist revolt since 2014.

It has poured thousands of troops into its assault, attacking from three sides in an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. The fall of the two cities, which straddle the Siverskiy Donets river, would bring nearly the whole of Luhansk province under Russian control, a key Kremlin war aim.

"Russia has the advantage, but we are doing everything we can" in the battle in the area, said General Oleksiy Gromov, deputy chief of the main operations department of Ukraine's general staff.

Serhiy Gaidai, governor of Luhansk province, said around 50 Russian soldiers had reached the highway and "managed to gain a foothold for some time. They even set up some kind of checkpoint there".

"The checkpoint was broken, they were thrown back. That is to say, the Russian army does not control the route now, but they are shelling it," he said in an interview posted on social media. He hinted at further Ukrainian withdrawals, saying it was possible troops would leave "one settlement, maybe two. We need to win the war, not the battle".

"It is clear that our boys are slowly retreating to more fortified positions - we need to hold back this horde," he said.

Western military analysts see the battle for the two cities as a potential turning point in the war, now that Russia has defined its principal objective as capturing the east.

Russian forces edge closer to encircling Ukraine troops in east

Advancing Russian forces came closer to surrounding Ukrainian troops in the east, briefly seizing positions on the last highway out of a crucial pair of Ukrainian-held cities before being beaten back, a Ukrainian official said on Thursday.
www.reuters.com

I'm glad they're talking about retreat. Encirclement of the fighting forces would be a disaster, I think.
 
I think the Russians will accomplish their encirclement by early next week, cutting off and liquidating a sizable UAF force. The West's best weapons must be arriving in sizable quantities now, but it does not seem to be sufficient to save Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from becoming the next Mariupol. After that the Russians will push hard to close the salient and join forces between Lyman and Popasna - that would leave thousands of UAF troops to the mercy of the Russians.

 
How tight could the encirclement be? So tight that the UAF couldn't escape?
 
Looks like UAF is well aware of this. We will see who prevails.
 
vikingBerserker said:
Amazing how politicians are so ready to cede other people's land. I wonder if Kissinger is willing to cede his house and land to Russia too.
Click to expand...
Fortunately not all politicians are like this. Every day I like more this woman. Hope her point of view prevails.


Discussed security issues today @FolkochForsvar in Stockholm. I warned about premature calls for a ceasefire and peace. We cannot give anything to the aggressor that it didn't have before – or the aggression will sooner or later return. 1/4

No sign Russia has changed its calculus. I don't believe in goodwill by an outright aggressor and a cold-blooded war criminal. We must avoid a bad peace. A badly negotiated peace for Ukraine would mean a bad peace for us all. 2/4

We need to focus on pushing back the aggressor and drying up his war machine. What Ukraine needs today are weapons to fight back the aggressor and liberate its territories. We need to help Ukraine win. And we need to make a leap forward in our own defence. 3/4

What is victory? This is solely up to Ukraine to define. But we must help them to reach the best position for any negotiations with the aggressor. The Russian threat will not go away tomorrow. We mustn't get tired. After all, Ukrainians are not tired. 4/4
 
There's a YouTube channel, Denys Davidov(?). He is an airline pilot for Ukrainian International, currently on hiatus. He gives multiple updates on Ukraine and seems credible. He says when things go wrong for Ukraine.
He's been commenting on this situation. He's been saying they're going to have to fall back when necessary. He comments on defensive measures. He doesn't pretty the picture up and says it's going to take a while. They're not going to fight stupid. While Ukraine is building a NATO like army, the Russians are beating themselves senseless and weaker capturing hard to defend areas. I like his insights. He also sounds like my venerated elders.

Denys Davydov is the name.
 
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Have not found any reliable source yet.

Ukrainian sources claim that Russians have taken Lyman just a few hours ago. It is expected Ukrainians will fall back to the other side of the river (we all know Russians have grown aversion to river crossing)


On the bright side they also claim a Russian assault on Severodonetsk and Avdiivka was repelled by the UAF
 

That really depends on how the Ukrainian leadership reads and responds to the situation.

I'm not sure whether the twin cities can be saved, but if they cannot, withdrawal and bombarding occupying forces could both save Ukrainian soldiers and provide area-denial, given the longer ranges of the Ukr artillery coming in.

It sure doesn't look good, but a mobile defense supported by a baseline of arty would be where I'd look.
 

I agree that this is optimistic. The make-or-break point hasn't been reached for Russia, but it seems a little closer for Ukraine.

I hope I'm wrong about this, and even if I am I think the Bear will have bitten off more than it can chew. Even a Russian military victory cannot stave off an expensive and bloody insurgency, especially after the war-crimes have been detailed. By actions at Bucha and elsewhere, the Russians have raised the black flag, and the Ukrainians know they are fighting for life.

That's a powerful motivator -- especially when compared to a half-trained conscript who only wants to be back home.
 
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