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The UAF has a lot of new and non compatible equipment to organize and mobilize. I'm sure they are paying more attention to the logistics chain than the other guys.
Since Belorussian people don't have tanks - I would assume that any attempt towards "revolution" would be squashed by Belarusian and Russian tanks. Just like the Hungarian Uprising of 1956. Especially by Russian troops since they are already in Belarus and the Kremlin will not be willing to give up onto the strategic Suwalki corridor/gap.If there was ever a time for the Belorussian people to rise up in revolution against their Russian-linked oppressors now is it.
What "new weaponry" aside from some artillery equipment, small arms, munition, ATGM's/Manpads and some APC's?If they're not doing this, they should be. Right now they're fighting for time to integrate the new weaponry, and that may demand retreats until they get the new stuff spooled up. But they'll be falling back onto supply lines if that is indeed what they choose to do, whereas the Russians ... well, "running out of gas" can be both literal and figurative as a turn of speech.
I don't think Ukraine has any interest in attacking Russia proper - their sole aim is to get rid of the invaders and reclaim their land.WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - As the United States and its allies provide Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated arms, Washington has held discussions with Kyiv about the danger of escalation if it strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. and diplomatic officials tell Reuters.
The behind-the-scenes discussions, which are highly sensitive and have not been previously reported, do not put explicit geographic restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukrainian forces. But the conversations have sought to reach a shared understanding of the risk of escalation, three U.S. officials and diplomatic sources said.
"We have concerns about escalation and yet still do not want to put geographic limits or tie their hands too much with the stuff we're giving them," said one of the three U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Exclusive: U.S. and Ukraine discuss danger of escalation as new arms extend Kyiv's reach
As the United States and its allies provide Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated arms, Washington has held discussions with Kyiv about the danger of escalation if it strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. and diplomatic officials tell Reuters.www.reuters.com
This angers me. Nothing we are supplying to Ukraine can make for an existential threat to Russia, so why are we even opening this conversation? If you're giving weapons to a guy you know is in for the fight of his life, you accept that your own weapons may cause offense, or harm, or mayhem, or deaths. We Americans should not be attaching strings to any arms we lend or lease or donate. And we shouldn't be pussyfooting around about it.
At the very least, if DC wants to micromanage the war, they should grow a pair of balls and put American troops into the line. Absent that, they should STFU about how these weapons are used.
/rant (hopefully, I may return to this as circumstances warrant, god damn it.)
I think Ukraine is going to lose the east.What "new weaponry" aside from some artillery equipment, small arms, munition, ATGM's/Manpads and some APC's?
NATO has decided just a couple of days ago not to supply e.g. tanks, MLRS and aircraft.
Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept anything less than Russia leaving Ukrainian soil.I think Ukraine is going to lose the east.
Presently it does look that wayI think Ukraine is going to lose the east.
Only if they lose everything. Ukraine will not stop fighting till then.I think Ukraine is going to lose the east.
Pragmatism will prevail. The West and US have already been nudging for an immediate ceasefire. My prediction is that Putin will soon take most of the Donbas, declare victory and stand down, calling for talks.Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept anything less than Russia leaving Ukrainian soil.
That would be very optimistic - taking the existing Russian military and economic losses into account. IMO he will continue towards his ultimate goal - Kiev.Pragmatism will prevail. The West and US have already been nudging for an immediate ceasefire. My prediction is that Putin will soon take most of the Donbas, declare victory and stand down, calling for talks.
No, if at all the Baltic republics are far more appealing to him.Don't you mean Paris?
If Putin calls a unilateral ceasefire, and if the West wants a ceasefire, they'll turn off the weapons to Ukraine. Zelensky will have no choice.Everyone has been calling for a ceasefire since the first week of March.
But in order for a ceasefire to work, both sides need to agree. Early on, Zelensky did consider concessions but Putin would not hold a talk - now, Zelensky has made it absolutely clear that it's all or nothing. There will be no concessions.
Zelensky will keep going no matter what.If Putin calls a unilateral ceasefire, and if the West wants a ceasefire, they'll turn off the weapons to Ukraine. Zelensky will have no choice.
You are probably right. The revanchist/irredentist would only push to reclaim previously controlled territory. The Baltic states, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Alaska. Espousing a Greater Slavic Co-prosperity Sphere, you could throw in Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria. Rumenia, Hungary and Germany just to round out the old Soviet Empire. But Puton is a true believer in a sort of Manifest Destiny of Russian led world communism. So why stop?No, if at all the Baltic republics are far more appealing to him.
They'll quieten down when Ukraine begins taking back more territory not previously abandoned by the Russians. Kharkiv's rescue was a good sign. Everyone wants to back an underdog who's successful. The Ukrainians now have the better weapons, training, intel and morale. It's now time for that to bear fruit.But the ones calling for a ceasefire are mostly noisemakers anyway.
Sorry, just couldn't let that one slip by
What "new weaponry" aside from some artillery equipment, small arms, munition, ATGM's/Manpads and some APC's?
NATO has decided just a couple of days ago not to supply e.g. tanks, MLRS and aircraft.