"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

[Thumpalumpacus]

Optimistic?

Ukraine counteroffensive likely within weeks & should focus on Crimea

UKRAINE is likely to launch a major counteroffensive within weeks, according to a former military officer who fought against the Russians in 2014.

www.express.co.uk

Here's hoping Mr Kovalenko is right, but Ukraine will need to extricate its troops from what appears to be an unfolding trap first. I think A Admiral Beez was right, upthread, when he wrote that this is another Mariupol. Unless the hypothetical offensive in the article linked happens quickly, the danger of encirclement is clear.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Here's hoping Mr Kovalenko is right, but Ukraine will need to extricate its troops from what appears to be an unfolding trap first. I think A Admiral Beez was right, upthread, when he wrote that this is another Mariupol. Unless the hypothetical offensive in the article linked happens quickly, the danger of encirclement is clear.

The danger of encirclement is there, but it's not easy for the Russians. As I said, there is a river there, the same that Russians failed (catastrophically) to cross for 3 times.
So unless the Russians can cross the River, the only way of encircling Ukraniasn is advancing all the way from Popasna. If Popasna salient overextends, it may be cut and encircled too.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Yeah, if their assault-crossing hasn't improved that could be an issue. Although with Mariupol's harbor now taking ships, how long will it be before the southern flank has the strength to force its way north?

 

[GTX]

 

[wlewisiii]

 

[Admiral Beez]

Is Jordan on good terms with the US and Ukraine? They've got hundreds of MBTs in storage.

List of equipment of the Royal Jordanian Army - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[GTX]

Is Jordan on good terms with the US and Ukraine? They've got hundreds of MBTs in storage.

List of equipment of the Royal Jordanian Army - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Jordan is walking a diplomatic tightrope on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

In spite of Jordan’s close ties to the United States and Europe, Amman has found itself walking a diplomatic tightrope in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in late February.

www.mei.edu

 

[GTX]

Middle East Responses to the Ukraine Crisis

So far, official statements from the region have ranged from rejecting Russia’s moves to treating them as a natural extension of existing policy.

www.washingtoninstitute.org

 

[GTX]

When Putin sent his troops into Ukraine, a 'secret plan' to undermine him was quietly put into action

A vast network of former Belarusian officials, activists, private hackers and ordinary citizens has reached deep into Russia's war with the aim of helping Ukrainians defeat their invaders.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

Ukraine says Russian troops retreating in Sievierodonetsk, Zelenskyy calls for Russian expulsion from UNESCO

Ukrainian forces have reversed a Russian advance in Sievierodonetsk and recaptured about 20 per cent of the city, according to the region's Governor.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Admiral Beez]

By July the Ukrainians will be unstoppable. Hopefully by Aug 24th Ukrainians will again be celebrating their independence!

Independence Day of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Admiral Beez]

I am quite sure that UAF pilots have been trained on e.g. F-16 and other aircraft already in the past months - the question is as to how far the USA or NATO want to go towards escalation by actually supplying diverse aircraft to Ukraine. Presently discontent/disagreements among NATO members towards prolonging this war at it's present level seem to be rather on the rise.

NATO will go as far as the US goes. But who is the obstructionist pessimist advising Biden? The US has past the point of no return, has declared that it's all in for Ukraine. So give them the F-16s, Abrams, MLRS, drones and anything else they need and can be trained to use. Call Russia's bluff, what are they going to do, launch nukes that send fallout across Russia?

 

[Admiral Beez]

U.S. Warship Arrives in Stockholm for Military Exercises, and as a Warning

"ABOARD U.S.S. KEARSARGE, in the port of Stockholm — If ever there was a potent symbol of how much Russia's invasion of Ukraine has altered Europe, the sight of this enormous warship, bristling with 26 warplanes and 2,400 Marines and sailors, moored among the pleasure craft and tour boats that ply this port, would certainly be it."

USS Kearsarge (LHD-3) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[GrauGeist]

Just in case anyone's wondering where the USN's carrier groups are, here's the U.S. Naval Institute's live fleet tracker.

It might be of interest to note the number and position of several groups in the Pacific, too.

Fleet Tracker Archives - USNI News

news.usni.org

 

[Jagdflieger]

Well maybe you are right and this time Russians can encircle something.

View attachment 672212

However I think they need to cross a river to advance north-to-south. And the advance south-to-north form Popasna was stooped a few days ago.

If the drive comes from the Popasna direction (Berestove) there is no river to cross, until unifying with the RF in the north. Upon reaching the northern front-line within 5-10 km - I don't think the UAF will be able to respell a crossing in the north if the RF would need to do so.
But off-course it all depends on the RF actual forces strength around Berestove.

 

[Jagdflieger]

Versailles resulted in the loss of some territory, constraints on German weapons and army, and payment of compensations. That resulted in WWII a couple decades later.
However after WWII Germany, was totally destroyed, lost much more territory, and was split in four zones of occupation that took more than 4 decades to reunify.

In my opinion the second was a much more humiliating defeat, and yet, it resulted in almost 80 years of peace ...

Versailles caused the financial burden and loss of face imposed onto Germany. Which Hitler used to get to power.
He only had 34% in the last free democratic election - then used the implementation of the Emergency laws to gain control over Germany. Hitlers policy was that of a racial policy
that naturally included the conquering of other countries. Due to his attack onto Poland he got sidelined in his actual ambitions and had to take care of France/UK/ etc. in the West.

The other protagonist was the Soviet Union.
What did the Soviet Union and Hitler have in common? the dissolution or eradication of all these "new" countries born due to Imperial Germany's, Hapsburg-Austria's loss of WWI and the demise of Czarist Russia.

Looking at a map from 1914 and 1922 makes it obvious as to who these "new" countries were

As such the impact or creation onto a future European war was the actual maybe "unintended" issue of the Versailles treaty.
The dissolution of Soviet Russia between 1988 -1991 prepared the same basis for a future conflict as that of 1939 once a Moscow strong man would come in.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

If the drive comes from the Popasna direction (Berestove) there is no river to cross, until unifying with the RF in the north. Upon reaching the northern front-line within 5-10 km - I don't think the UAF will be able to respell a crossing in the north if the RF would need to do so.
But off-course it all depends on the RF actual forces strength around Berestove.

Berestove is still in Ukrainian control. The northern front line (delimited by Donetsk river) is 20-25 Km away, not 5-10.
The encirclement is possible. However, considering Russian advancement speed in the last weeks/months and Russian ability to cross the Donetsk river, I estimate the probability of closing that gap in less than a month is quite low.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

 

[RogerdeLluria]

For those understanding Spanish here are some sources.

España, dispuesta a entregar a Ucrania misiles antiaéreos y carros de combate Leopard

El Ejército español instruirá en Letonia y en territorio nacional a los militares ucranios en el manejo de los tanques en su lucha contra la invasión rusa

elpais.com

Ucrania pide a España que instruya a sus militares en el manejo de tanques 'Leopard'

El Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez está estudiando una petición de Ucrania para el envío de instructores militares a un tercer país con el fin de que enseñen a

theobjective.com

 

[Jagdflieger]

Berestove is still in Ukrainian control. The northern front line (delimited by Donetsk river) is 20-25 Km away, not 5-10.
The encirclement is possible. However, considering Russian advancement speed in the last weeks/months and Russian ability to cross the Donetsk river, I estimate the probability of closing that gap in less than a month is quite low.

I didn't say that Berestrove is 5-10km away from the northern front line. But UPON the RF Southern thrust reaching the Northern Front-line within 5-10 km, a river crossing by the Northern RF units might be sucessfull if deemed necessary to do so by the RF.
Berestove is still in UAF hands - but this is were the RF Southern thrust possibly goes through in order to create a 1000km2 pocket upon reaching Siversk and then connecting with the Northern Front-line.

One also needs to keep in mind that these www "live" map's are partially manipulated, and only show the actual situation in a 24 h retrospective.
Likely the RF are concentrating onto these 2 thrust possibilities. see map.

On the other hand, the since May conducted "slow motion" and steamroller approach by the RF might suit their "ability" better, and their aim for a long time war - as long they do not run out of DNLR forces.