"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (45 Viewers)

[RogerdeLluria]

Putin axes 5 generals from Russian military's top brass as Ukraine invasion nears 100th day mark

The firings come as the Russian assault on Ukraine continues to go poorly, with Moscow's forces suffering staggering casualty numbers.

news.yahoo.com

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Kherson counteroffensive seems to be moving forward

Update

 

[Dimlee]

About equipment delivery to Ukraine.
Tom Cooper summarised nicely:
"Ah well: at least the — cumulative — results of all the 'strenuous efforts' of the EU/USA/NATO to help Ukraine already have-, or at least are in the process of resulting in delivery of 118 M777s from USA, Canada, and Australia; 72 Krab self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) from Poland (18 are already in Ukraine); 20 M109A3GN from Norway, on top of at least 8, probably more of Zuzana-2s from Slovakia, and about 30+ Dana/Dana M2s from the Czech Republic, etc…. well, with Estonia- and Italy-provided FH.70s, and French-delivered Caesars…. plus all the possible support equipment and about 400,000 rounds of associated ammunition….sometimes by July or August Ukrainian Army is going to have one of 'most potent artillery corpses in Europe'. At least by standards from before 24 February 2022. Until then, thousands are going to die, additional thousands are going to end maimed for the time of their life, and scores of Ukrainian villages are going to be ruined forever…"

 

[Jagdflieger]

Could it be that the Russians on purpose start to draw back slightly at Severodonetsk in order to draw in more UAF units?
Looking at a map, anyone (including the UAF) can see that ca. 30km behind is a gap (presently UAF controlled) which measures less then 15km in depth from Berestove to Siversk, with no rivers or larger forested areas in between.
If the RF manage to close that gap, then around 35-40 UAF BTG's are trapped in this "Lysychansk" pocket.

There are around 20 RF BTG's assembling around Berestove presently reinforcing around 12,000 other RF , maybe the UAF should rather draw back then to keep going in? what do you guys think?

 

[Admiral Beez]

About equipment delivery to Ukraine.
Tom Cooper summarised nicely:
"Ah well: at least the — cumulative — results of all the 'strenuous efforts' of the EU/USA/NATO to help Ukraine already have-, or at least are in the process of resulting in delivery of 118 M777s from USA, Canada, and Australia; 72 Krab self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) from Poland (18 are already in Ukraine); 20 M109A3GN from Norway, on top of at least 8, probably more of Zuzana-2s from Slovakia, and about 30+ Dana/Dana M2s from the Czech Republic, etc…. well, with Estonia- and Italy-provided FH.70s, and French-delivered Caesars…. plus all the possible support equipment and about 400,000 rounds of associated ammunition….sometimes by July or August Ukrainian Army is going to have one of 'most potent artillery corpses in Europe'.

What about tanks? Is anyone going to provide modern MBTs? Have the UAF been training on Leo II or Abrams? What of the Polish T-72s?

 

[Glider]

What about tanks? Is anyone going to provide modern MBTs? Have the UAF been training on Leo II or Abrams? What of the Polish T-72s?

For me the big unknown is what is happening regarding aircraft. No one seems to be talking about it but it will be critical. If heaven forbid, the Russians do spring a surprise then only supporting aircraft may stop it turning into a rout. If Ukraine are able to make a breakthrough you can be sure anything that can fly will be thrown by Russia into the fray to stop their forces routing, (which is far more likely).

Personally I hope the USA are getting a serious number of F16's out of storage and preparing them, whilst suitable training regimes are in place to fly and support them. The cost the the taxpayer will be relatively low and the benefit huge.

 

[Jagdflieger]

For me the big unknown is what is happening regarding aircraft. No one seems to be talking about it but it will be critical. If heaven forbid, the Russians do spring a surprise then only supporting aircraft may stop it turning into a rout. If Ukraine are able to make a breakthrough you can be sure anything that can fly will be thrown by Russia into the fray to stop their forces routing, (which is far more likely).

Personally I hope the USA are getting a serious number of F16's out of storage and preparing them, whilst suitable training regimes are in place to fly and support them. The cost the the taxpayer will be relatively low and the benefit huge.

I am quite sure that UAF pilots have been trained on e.g. F-16 and other aircraft already in the past months - the question is as to how far the USA or NATO want to go towards escalation by actually supplying diverse aircraft to Ukraine. Presently discontent/disagreements among NATO members towards prolonging this war at it's present level seem to be rather on the rise.

 

[Glider]

I am quite sure that UAF pilots have been trained on e.g. F-16 and other aircraft already in the past months - the question is as to how far the USA or NATO want to go towards escalation by actually supplying diverse aircraft to Ukraine. Presently discontent/disagreements among NATO members towards prolonging this war at it's present level seem to be rather on the rise.

Jag
I hope your right about the training and general preparation regarding fighters. Also I do believe that you are right about the first signs of disagreement between Nato members in particular France and Germany. However on a more positive note, Urkraine now seems to be getting Drones that can fly considerable distances and drop very effective payloads. The difference between a drone that have that ability and aircraft that have a similar ability is starting to narrow.

On a more general note, the quality of the equipment that Ukraine seems to be getting is increasing, whilst the quality of the equipment that is being issues to the Russian front line seems to be getting worse. That can only be a help to the Ukraine

 

[Jagdflieger]

Jag
I hope your right about the training and general preparation regarding fighters. Also I do believe that you are right about the first signs of disagreement between Nato members in particular France and Germany. However on a more positive note, Urkraine now seems to be getting Drones that can fly considerable distances and drop very effective payloads. The difference between a drone that have that ability and aircraft that have a similar ability is starting to narrow.

On a more general note, the quality of the equipment that Ukraine seems to be getting is increasing, whilst the quality of the equipment that is being issues to the Russian front line seems to be getting worse. That can only be a help to the Ukraine

Glider
I agree with your assessment, but IMO unless NATO starts to bring in heavy stuff and aircraft in respectable numbers - the present military stalemate between Ukraine and Russia can't really be undone. As such an "endless" war will be inevitable.
NATO is not in favor of an "endless" war (fear of $ and political changes)- nor do they believe in escalation via sending those weapons in unspecified quantities.
So I think it takes time (continued Ukrainian losses on behalf of their citizens and military) in order for NATO to give the Ukrainians just about the "exact" quantity to slightly influence the equilibrium without drifting towards a potential escalation.

 

[SaparotRob]

The way to prevent endless war is to utterly annihilate Russia's ability to wage war. Putin must be humiliated (contrary to to what Macron might think) and not be allowed to claim any gains. Putin's complete military defeat is the only way he will be removed (by the Russians). I would think Macron would do well to remember the cost of appeasement.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The way to prevent endless war is to utterly annihilate Russia's ability to wage war. Putin must be humiliated (contrary to to what Macron might think) and not be allowed to claim any gains. Putin's complete military defeat is the only way he will be removed (by the Russians). I would think Macron would do well to remember the cost of appeasement.

At the same time we must be wary of Versailles 2.0 fueling revanchist sentiments in Russia the next few decades. It's a fine line to walk here.

 

[Jagdflieger]

The way to prevent endless war is to utterly annihilate Russia's ability to wage war. Putin must be humiliated (contrary to to what Macron might think) and not be allowed to claim any gains. Putin's complete military defeat is the only way he will be removed (by the Russians).

From a military tactical view of point I would say - Yes absolutely
However there isn't a single day were Russia/Putin isn't described as an evil maniac and being utterly reckless towards human lives.
If so, then once he realizes his defeat, what is to stop him from nuking Ukraine back to the stone-age? motto: okay NATO take what is left of it and don't forget to bring your ABC suits.
And nuking Ukraine (just my opinion) is not going to escalate into NATO nuking Russia.

As such I have to agree with Macron, to safe Putin's face might be of utmost importance - but slowly change the military equilibrium to make Putin realize, he is not going to win even in the long run.
End of story: Selenskyj will have to cede territory to Putin, or at minimum acknowledge several free Republics, whether he likes it or not.

 

[Dimlee]

At the same time we must be wary of Versailles 2.0 fueling revanchist sentiments in Russia the next few decades. It's a fine line to walk here.

Well... Versailles 2.0 revanchism is already there in Russian Federation. Despite all the help given by the West, the wealth gained thanks to Western expertise and investments, opportunities to leave peacefully and prosper.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Well... Versailles 2.0 revanchism is already there in Russian Federation. Despite all the help given by the West, the wealth gained thanks to Western expertise and investments, opportunities to leave peacefully and prosper.

No need to fuel it further, then. Sanctions as tools of diplomacy only work in the context of quid pro quo. It stands to reason, then, that we should tie the lifting of sanctions to Russian reparations to Ukraine, preferably in a sequence of benchmarks resulting in their easing, and leaving the sanctions in place against Russian leadership in any event.

 

[GrauGeist]

There is the Budapest Memorandum, which is an intetesting accord.

The signatories pledged to not only respect the sovereign states of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, but defend them in the event of attack.

Technically speaking, Russia (one of the signatories) has violated the accord and technically speaking, the UK and US (the other signatories) are within the agreement's boundaries to come to the aid of Ukraine militarily.

This talk about "oh, look out, Russia has nuclear weapons!" misses the point that other nations do, too. Putin can threaten all day long, but knows that if he does, he'll get what he gives.

If Russia deploys a nuke(s) in Ukraine, the US and UK can, legally, according to the Budapest Memorandum, respond.

This would have zero to do with NATO, too.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Could it be that the Russians on purpose start to draw back slightly at Severodonetsk in order to draw in more UAF units?
Looking at a map, anyone (including the UAF) can see that ca. 30km behind is a gap (presently UAF controlled) which measures less then 15km in depth from Berestove to Siversk, with no rivers or larger forested areas in between.
If the RF manage to close that gap, then around 35-40 UAF BTG's are trapped in this "Lysychansk" pocket.

There are around 20 RF BTG's assembling around Berestove presently reinforcing around 12,000 other RF , maybe the UAF should rather draw back then to keep going in? what do you guys think?

Well maybe you are right and this time Russians can encircle something.

However I think they need to cross a river to advance north-to-south. And the advance south-to-north form Popasna was stooped a few days ago.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

At the same time we must be wary of Versailles 2.0 fueling revanchist sentiments in Russia the next few decades. It's a fine line to walk here.

Versailles resulted in the loss of some territory, constraints on German weapons and army, and payment of compensations. That resulted in WWII a couple decades later.
However after WWII Germany, was totally destroyed, lost much more territory, and was split in four zones of occupation that took more than 4 decades to reunify.

In my opinion the second was a much more humiliating defeat, and yet, it resulted in almost 80 years of peace ...

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Versailles resulted in the loss of some territory, constraints on German weapons and army, and payment of compensations. That resulted in WWII a couple decades later.
However after WWII Germany, was totally destroyed, lost much more territory, and was split in four zones of occupation that took more than 4 decades to reunify.

In my opinion the second was a much more humiliating defeat, and yet, it resulted in almost 80 years of peace ...

Occupation, along with the Marshall Plan, is what brough Germany back into the fold of democratic nations. We still have thousands of army troops based on German soil.

You're not going to be putting an army of occupation into Russia any time soon.

As for the link between Versailles and WWII, it's there, and it's palpable, but I think the biggest factor was the economy of the late 1920s/early 1930s, and also the social unrest and violence of that era, leading Germany to turn to authoritarianism (and later, totalitarianism) as an answer to its ills.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Optimistic?

Ukraine counteroffensive likely within weeks & should focus on Crimea

UKRAINE is likely to launch a major counteroffensive within weeks, according to a former military officer who fought against the Russians in 2014.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Glider]

Optimistic?

Ukraine counteroffensive likely within weeks & should focus on Crimea

UKRAINE is likely to launch a major counteroffensive within weeks, according to a former military officer who fought against the Russians in 2014.

www.express.co.uk

Very