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Optimistic?
Ukraine counteroffensive likely within weeks & should focus on Crimea
UKRAINE is likely to launch a major counteroffensive within weeks, according to a former military officer who fought against the Russians in 2014.www.express.co.uk
The danger of encirclement is there, but it's not easy for the Russians. As I said, there is a river there, the same that Russians failed (catastrophically) to cross for 3 times.Here's hoping Mr Kovalenko is right, but Ukraine will need to extricate its troops from what appears to be an unfolding trap first. I think A Admiral Beez was right, upthread, when he wrote that this is another Mariupol. Unless the hypothetical offensive in the article linked happens quickly, the danger of encirclement is clear.
Is Jordan on good terms with the US and Ukraine? They've got hundreds of MBTs in storage.
NATO will go as far as the US goes. But who is the obstructionist pessimist advising Biden? The US has past the point of no return, has declared that it's all in for Ukraine. So give them the F-16s, Abrams, MLRS, drones and anything else they need and can be trained to use. Call Russia's bluff, what are they going to do, launch nukes that send fallout across Russia?I am quite sure that UAF pilots have been trained on e.g. F-16 and other aircraft already in the past months - the question is as to how far the USA or NATO want to go towards escalation by actually supplying diverse aircraft to Ukraine. Presently discontent/disagreements among NATO members towards prolonging this war at it's present level seem to be rather on the rise.
If the drive comes from the Popasna direction (Berestove) there is no river to cross, until unifying with the RF in the north. Upon reaching the northern front-line within 5-10 km - I don't think the UAF will be able to respell a crossing in the north if the RF would need to do so.Well maybe you are right and this time Russians can encircle something.
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However I think they need to cross a river to advance north-to-south. And the advance south-to-north form Popasna was stooped a few days ago.
Versailles caused the financial burden and loss of face imposed onto Germany. Which Hitler used to get to power.Versailles resulted in the loss of some territory, constraints on German weapons and army, and payment of compensations. That resulted in WWII a couple decades later.
However after WWII Germany, was totally destroyed, lost much more territory, and was split in four zones of occupation that took more than 4 decades to reunify.
In my opinion the second was a much more humiliating defeat, and yet, it resulted in almost 80 years of peace ...
Berestove is still in Ukrainian control. The northern front line (delimited by Donetsk river) is 20-25 Km away, not 5-10.If the drive comes from the Popasna direction (Berestove) there is no river to cross, until unifying with the RF in the north. Upon reaching the northern front-line within 5-10 km - I don't think the UAF will be able to respell a crossing in the north if the RF would need to do so.
But off-course it all depends on the RF actual forces strength around Berestove.
I didn't say that Berestrove is 5-10km away from the northern front line. But UPON the RF Southern thrust reaching the Northern Front-line within 5-10 km, a river crossing by the Northern RF units might be sucessfull if deemed necessary to do so by the RF.Berestove is still in Ukrainian control. The northern front line (delimited by Donetsk river) is 20-25 Km away, not 5-10.
The encirclement is possible. However, considering Russian advancement speed in the last weeks/months and Russian ability to cross the Donetsk river, I estimate the probability of closing that gap in less than a month is quite low.