So the Butcher of Aleppo is unemployed. Maybe we should all chip in and buy him a card or something.
What I find interesting is that he was brought in to stop the collapse of morale and string of defeats which the Russian forces had been suffering.
Looking at it from a Russian perspective he did what he was told to do, steady the ship and use brute force without mercy to make gains in the two contested regions. One of which he did take over and was making gains in the second. Ukraine have clearly been making gains in the South and Russia seems to be sending considerable forces to the south. I know that some senior people with far more facts and information available to them than I, are saying that Russia is going to launch a second front in the south, however this I cannot see.
For me this doesn't quite ring true. If Russia was confident of holding the Ukraine forces in the south I cannot help but feel that they would have completed the taking over of the second region. Then they could claim a victory in line with their second version of the stated goals, while Ukraine uses resources it cannot afford in the South..
I feel that the reason why the forces are being sent South is to stop a collapse or at least a significant defeat with the loss of the major city in the area. If they can attack, then no doubt they will, but to me it feels as if that's a secondary goal. It's this fear of a major defeat in the South which would be the reason for his sacking, and the redeployment.
At the beginning, strategically Ukraine were reacting to the actions of Russia. Now it seems to be Russia reacting to the actions of the Ukraine, which is a significant achievement which no one would have predicted.
www.newsweek.com
www.abc.net.au
www.dailykos.com
