"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)

Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules

Winter will be harder on the Russian side, especially those on the wrong side of the Dnipro.

Given their supply problems -- bad enough that the general in charge of that for the army has been relieved of duty -- I'm thinking that they're going to have problems staying warm: fuel for portable heaters, jackets and winter boots for the grunts, replacement parts for vehicles (because bad weather is hard on vehicles).
 
I honestly doubt that the onset of the wet months of Fall and then Winter setting in will curb the Ukrainian offensive. It may slow their momentum, but Russia best not assume that bad weather is going to keep them safe.
I agree. The UAF's tanks, AFVs and IFVs will need to stick to the roads, but they won't get stuck in massive traffic jams for lack of fuel and organization like the Russians outside Kyiv. Instead smaller batches of UAF armour will rush the border roads, with drone-guided truck-mounted HIMARS hitting everything from well back.
 
Last edited:
Lots of side roads in the rural areas of Ukraine that have been maintained by the farmers which would be accessible and passable by military equipment.

In WWII, many of the same areas that are currently being contested, were poor peasant cooperatives, cultivated by hand or by horse with with virtually no infrastructure, so the Germans (and Red Army) were bogged down in impassable mud if they strayed from a major highway (and even then, it was sketchy).

In the current setting, if equipment strayed from any of the roads (major or otherwise) and tried to cut across a farm field or open terrain, then they'll most certainly bog down.
 
They'll steal from the locals. As Hitler said, all of the enemy will starve before one of his own goes hungry.

Relying on that for supply doesn't strike me as advisable. Ask Hitler about Jan 1942 and the retreat from Moscow.

To the point -- these 300,000 call-ups, are they getting winter gear? There's not much food growing in the fields in January, that's another thin reed. Does your equipment have adequate supplies of low-viscosity oil to enable reliable winter ops?

This is why the main point of my post was about logistics, and I only put up the pics of bogged vehicles later. There's a lot more to winter ops than mobility itself.

I think the Ukrainians will keep pushing forward, albeit more slowly, because they've got better motivation -- kith and kin needing to be freed. I hope and think that they're equipped for this sort of thing. I do wonder if the Russians haven't screwed this up as well.
 
I hope and think that (the UAF) is equipped for this sort of thing.
I have no doubt that Ukraine will have all the winter equipment and winter fighting kit/training they'll need.



 
I have no doubt that Ukraine will have all the winter equipment and winter fighting kit/training they'll need.




Right, I've read about a lot of non-lethal aid, including from Germany, is the form of uniforms, clothing, boots, etc. And it too is pretty damned important. I think you're right. Part of it has been the absolute incompetence of not just Russian logistics but their doctrine of logistics itself. In other words, it's not just a personnel failing, but it's that failing playing fire with a doctrinal neglect of supply, I think.
 
How will the M-55S' L7 105mm gun perform against Russian T-72s? I believe early Cold War testing against captured Russian tanks was one of the reasons the British expedited development of the 120 mm rifled gun for the Chieftain, and Rheinmetall their Rh-120 smoothbore that replaced the L7 in pretty much everything else.

Depends on the ammunition being fired. And where it hits (even frontally). And what kind of T-72 it is.

Western powers APFSDS in service in the early 1980s** (third generation designs basically) were intended to be used against T-72A and early T-80 variants with early generations of ERA. Reportedly most of these could penetrate T-72A and early T-80s out past 2000m (penetration around 400mm of LOS RHA equivalent at this distance), some sources saying penetration possible at 4000m plus. These tanks were pretty much immune to 105mm HEAT rounds frontally though.

Problem comes with later T-72B, T-80B and T-80U (built from the mid-1980s). These had up-armoured turrets with different composite arrays and Kontakt-5 second generation ERA, which really added to the protection - some sources say roughly +20%, some say as much as +50%. Frontally, protection against APFSDS is estimated at anywhere from 550mm to 1000mm.

Fourth generation APFSDS (US M900 DU round, Israeli M426 and 429, bunch of European rounds) fielded from the late 1980s/early 1990s onward are supposed to perform better (and were designed with heavy ERA in mind). Penetration is reportedly as high as 570mm at 2000m. Rounds fielded in the early 2000s might even be better than that again.

What could they do against a modernised T-72BM/T-80U/T-80BV with Relik ERA? I really don't know. It's a question that will be answered on the battlefield.

**In 1981 or 1982s, Western ammo designers reportedly had a collective "Oh shit" moment when Russian tank testing data was 'acquired' and the generation of ammunition being just fielded was clearly not going to perform against the mid 1980s generations of Russian tanks. So there were lots of new ammo designs in the early to mid 1980s and performance claims get a little wild (stuff is STILL classified, so it's hard to work out). US came out with a couple of DU penetrators, the UK got very interested in super dense alloys all of a sudden and the Germans started shopping around everywhere.
 
Last edited:
The news of Russia's soldiers in Donbas lacking warm clothes as winter approaches was reposted by the Head of the Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin.

Shades of 1941? "Winter clothing? It'll be over before snow fly." You'd think the Russians, of all people, would know better.
 
The news of Russia's soldiers in Donbas lacking warm clothes as winter approaches was reposted by the Head of the Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin.

Shades of 1941? "Winter clothing? It'll be over before snow fly." You'd think the Russians, of all people, would know better.
The Russians will steal whatever provisions and winter clothing they want from the locals.
 
The Russians will steal whatever provisions and winter clothing they want from the locals.

Given that many will have been made refugees, that's -- again, since you ignored it the first time I wrote it-- a thin reed upon which to base plans. How much good food does an abandoned or destroyed house have? Better hope the fire didn't reach the closet.

If they do as you argue here, they're even dumber than I thought.
 
since you ignored it the first time I wrote it-- a thin reed upon which to base plans.
No one owes anyone their attention nor a reply. That said, I have not suggested that such theft will be effective, only that like most invaders they will try to live off the land through theft and pillaging, to the detriment of the locals.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back