"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

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Excellent point. In the right hands, such as Ukrainian the combat aircraft of Russia can find strong success. I'm so used to seeing MiGs, Sukhois and Yaks falling to everyone from the Israelis, US/RAF over Iraq, etc., etc.
 
Centuries of oppression, inferior education (if any at all), suppression of individual initiative, no opportunity to develop the skills, reflexes, and traditions needed to support a modern liberal democracy, to name a few. People inured to survival under one form or another of totalitarian society for a millennium are susceptible to bunker mentality, xenophobia, and "black market" habits of subverting the social contract. Distrust prevails. Strongmen thrive. Oppression is self perpetuating..

Russia has defeated every invader since the Mongols…. they're a victorious nation, but act like defeatist isolationists, always seeking respect. What's wrong with the Russia headpiece?
See above.
 
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Russia seems to have lost another front-line quality division.


Its also notable that one of Russia's few allies is turning against it or is at least going more public with what has previously been muted criticism.

Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry said Monday that it will not recognize the potential Russian annexation of eastern Ukrainian regions through the referendums, Reuters reported. This is not the first time that Kazakhstan, which, along with Russia, is a member of the NATO-style Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has broken with Russian positions on aspects of the war.

In June, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said that his country would not recognize the self-proclaimed independence of two Russian-backed separatist areas in eastern Ukraine. He also called for Russia-Ukraine peace talks and offered help with mediation, according to Russian state media
 
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Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry said Monday that it will not recognize the potential Russian annexation of eastern Ukrainian regions through the referendums,
No surprise here. They could be next on Russia's hit list. And, most of all, Kazakhstan has bet its future and security on China, so whatever China says they're likely to follow suit.


Russia's failure in this war is a huge uptick for China.

 
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This war has given me a new appreciation for the MiG-29. Do we know how many Ukraine has received and how many more are potentially available for Ukraine? Did Poland ever hand over its MiGs from March 2022? What about Bulgaria, Czech, etc? Are the USAF's MiG-29s still in service and not so modernized as to be unfamiliar? Could Peru be persuaded to part with their MiG-29s through some US security guarantee? Perhaps not.

Last month this article below reported that Slovakia will donate all their MiG-29s, but I'm not sure if this has already occurred. I originally saw reports of this back in April.

 
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Donetsk front update.

Ukrainian motorised and light mech (APCs/IFVs) infantry forces continued to drive east and north from Oskil, reportedly now penetrating to within a few kilometers of the Zherebets River and effectively pocketing Lyman from the north. Ukranian sources reporting they may have outrun their tube artillery support (suggesting an advance of more than 20km).

Another attack is reportedly developing to the south east of Lyman, pushing northwards. Russian sources report light infantry elements (mostly foot, some motorised) have advanced through the wooded/swampy territory to the north of the Siverski Donets river, advancing across a front as wide as ~20km between Yampil and Bilohorivka. They reportedly bypassed or destroyed the few Russian defenses in the area and have advanced to within striking distance of several key towns reinforcing Lyman.

Twitter sources (so caveats for accuracy) put AFU forces immediately to the south of Zarichne & Tor'ske, on the edge of Dibrova and advancing on the outskirts of Kreminna.

No indications of the size/strength of this force. But, they're reportedly already interdicting the main Russian withdrawal route out of Lyman and Drobysheve - which runs through Zarichne and the straight east to Kreminna. That leaves a single supply line into the Lyman/Drobysheve area - which is also under observation from Ukrainian forces.

If this is true, then we're probably looking at the first large scale encirclement of Russian forces in the war. No idea how large Russian forces are in the area, but there are definitely elements of three Russian division, along with special forces and the BARS Special Combat Reserves (activated reservists) engaged in Lyman/Drobysheve.
 
Why are the Russians continuing their offensive towards Bakhmut instead of trying to reinforce Lyman?

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia's proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 26. A Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner elements entered the northern part of Otradivka (10 km south of Bakhmut along the T0513 highway) from the east and cut off Ukrainian forces' access to the southern part of Otradivka.[45] Wagner elements reportedly continued attacks north on the Bakhmut-Mayorsk highway and took up positions in southern Zaitseve (8 km southeast of Bakhmut).[46] Russian forces may be planning to encircle or envelop Ukrainian positions in eastern Zaitseve from newly acquired positions in the Donbas power substation. Geolocated footage posted on September 26 also shows Russian forces launching ground attacks against Ukrainian positions along the railroad by Bilohorivka.[47] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Spirne, Soledar, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Vyimka, Kurdyumivka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske, and Mayorsk on September 26.[48] Ukrainian forces had reportedly repelled Russian ground assaults on Soledar, Vyimka, Kurdyumivka, Zaitseve, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske, and Pavlivka on September 25.[49] Russian forces also conducted routine shelling along the line of contact in the vicinity of Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City on September 25 and 26, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.[50]



From the above site, I liked this part....

Unconfirmed reports suggest Ukrainian forces may have destroyed a Russian drone control and training center that directed drone attacks against Ukraine, possibly killing Iranian trainers. Ukrainian journalist Andriiy Tsapienko claimed that Ukrainian forces avenged Russian drone attacks on Odesa by striking the Russian facility in Chulakivka on the Kinburn Spit of Kherson Oblast on September 26 and claimed that the Ukrainian strikes killed four dozen Russians and two dozen Iranian trainers teaching Russian forces how to use Iranian-made drones like the Shahed-136.
 
Bulgaria will not part with their MiG-29s although they did send their Su-25s to Ukraine.
 
Bulgaria will not part with their MiG-29s although they did send their Su-25s to Ukraine.
Apparently there's some move to get F-16s to Bulgaria. Maybe that will free up their MiG-29s. Besides, with Article 5 no one is going to touch Bulgaria.


With just about everyone in eastern Europe wanting/getting F-16s, I have to wonder how quickly they can be produced or refurbished from stocks. My understanding is that with the L-M factory producing F-35s the F-16 has stopped production until it restarts at a new facility in 2023, with first aircraft leaving the line in 2024. L-M must have over a hundred in back order.


 


 

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