"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

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Admiral Beez said:
Not accurate. For example 100,000 draft dodging Americans fled to Canada from 1965 to 1975. And thousands of Serbians fled when their country went to war against most of its neighbours in the 1990s. But still a good sentiment of public mood in Russia.
Click to expand...
NOT ACCURATE! The US ended the draft in 1973. The actual number is unknown but depending who you talk to, the number ranges from 40,000 to 100,000, the lower number came from Canadian immigration. There were a number who did leave to Canada but returned either to serve (having a change of heart) or when given amnesty.

Also note that over 30,000 Canadians came to the US to serve in the US armed forces during the Vietnam era! 12,000 saw combat, 134 were KIA.

1664308792583.png
 
These videos showing Russian soldiers captured at the front lines just a few days after they're conscripted are just incredible. Just from the physical fitness perspective, these men are going to struggle...let alone basic soldier things like whether they can remember tactics, shoot, maintain their equipment (ok, the last was a silly observation since Russia isn't giving them any equipment!).

I thought the following article was interesting in the context of the conscription, even though it's a few years old. We've all known military personnel who were absolute people-of-illegitimate-parentage, particularly in training. However, in the west that's mostly a facade designed to build esprit de corps and give the trainees a common enemy to aid the team bonding process. It seems from the descriptions below that the Russian military views anything up to and including rape as simply "something that sorts the men from the boys." That really doesn't bode well for the Russian military because that sort of policy fractures unit cohesion rather than building it.

More Than a Decade After Military Reform, Hazing Still Plagues the Russian Army

By Alexey Zhabin
Updated: Feb. 18, 2020

Having the Russian word for "cock" carved on his forehead with a razor blade as punishment for smoking an illicit cigarette in his barracks toilet was the last straw for Private Artyom Pakhotin. Two weeks later, on April 19, 2018, he shot himself dead with an AK-74 during his platoon's drill training session in the Urals region of Sverdlovsk.

"Mom, don't believe what anyone tells you. They're bullying me here, exhausting me psychologically and extorting money … I don't see how I can go on. I'm already very tired. I'm sorry it all turned out like this," said his last text message to his mother, shown on the local TVK television channel.

Pakhotin's case isn't unique. Dedovshchina, Russian for hazing, has been part of life for conscripts in the Russian army since the end of the 17th century, when Russian Emperor Peter the Great first introduced compulsory military service.

In 2008, the authorities introduced reforms that included cutting compulsory service from two years to one and changing the military's management structure and education system. Extreme hazing persisted until 2012, when the effects of the reforms became evident. But today, conscripts nearing the end of their year-long stint still bully new arrivals through rape, beatings and humiliation, sometimes with tragic consequences.

In November 2019, a 20-year-old conscript gunned down eight of his fellow soldiers in the town of Gorny in the country's Far East, saying he had acted in retaliation to bullying and a rape threat. "I regret I couldn't restrain myself and that I resorted to this extreme step, but I had no other way out. I couldn't take any more mistreatment," Shamsutdinov wrote in an open letter circulated by his lawyer on social media.

There are no official statistics on the number of hazing cases in the army, but a report from the RBC news website said that in 2018 more than 1,100 military personnel were convicted on charges of abuse of power, and 372 for violence. Lawyer and ex-soldier Alexander Latynin, a supervisory board member of the Union of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia NGO, estimated that the reported number of convictions is just the tip of the iceberg. "We receive about 300 phone calls a day — 10% of them reporting hazing incidents — along with 20 emails a day, one or two of which will be about hazing," Latynin told The Moscow Times, adding that the other complaints are about verbal abuse from officers, inadequate medical treatment and failure of the authorities to issue uniforms.

All able-bodied Russian men are obliged to complete a year of compulsory military service before they turn 27, although thousands manage to avoid it by bribing recruiting officials and doctors. According to official statistics there are 1.9 million Russian army personnel, about 80% of whom are conscripts.

Another military NGO — Mother's Right — estimates based on the requests for help it has received that only 4% of military conscript deaths happen in the line of duty, while 44% are suicides. "Conscripts face extortion, beatings, bullying, inducement to suicide and other crimes," said spokeswoman Anna Kashirtseva. RBC estimated that convictions for abuse of power in the Russian army have halved in the past 10 years, while the number of convictions for violence has fallen fivefold since 2008.

The Defense Ministry didn't respond to requests for comment on the scale of hazing in the military. Arseny Levinson, a lawyer with the Citizen and Army human rights group, said the level of hazing has fallen since the 2008 reforms. "The scales of violence based on the informal hierarchy, which was based on period of service, decreased as the term of service was reduced," said Levinson. He added that technology has also helped, as smartphones and the internet make it more difficult to cover up hazing.

However, last year a law forbidding the usage of phones and any devices with access to the internet for serving military came into force. Timur Ilyasov, a conscript who served in northwestern Russia from 2018-2019, said that anyone's experience with hazing and bullying depends on their personal traits, and that he believes some level of friction is normal in a military team. "If you allow yourself to be bullied, they will bully you and make you do what they want ... It's just a male environment, the interaction of 100 men in an enclosed space." He said there were frequent clashes in his platoon, although superior officers monitored proceedings closely.

"Every evening they examine your body and, if you have bruises, both you and your supervisors will be penalized," he said, adding that this has made bullies adept at administering beatings with the palms of their hands, so as not to leave marks.

Extortion of money

Commentators said that the nature of dedovshchina is also changing, with the extortion of money playing a more central role nowadays.

Latynin said that hazing represents a crisis in Russian society, and pointed out that educated and well-disciplined soldiers never haze others. The closed nature of the army system, absence of normal leisure time for conscripts and poor officer training also contribute to creating the conditions for hazing, Levinson said. "Soldiers have almost no leave, they are trapped and isolated from relatives and public control," he said.

Latynin believes that up to 30% of conscripts are unfit for military service and estimated that it takes them anywhere from six months to a year to adapt to army life. Kashirtseva believes that dedovshchina still exists because, in most cases, nobody is held responsible for it because of the country's lack of a legal culture. "Russians think that beatings, bullying and extortion in the army are a school of life for conscripts, which every boy has to graduate from if he wants to become a real man," she said.
 
The pipeline explosions have to be sabotage - but who would be capable of bombing the pipeline at those depths?

This isn't going to be someone making a bomb in a pressure-cooker in their living room, this is the work of someone who has access to high tech equipment...like a military.
 
GTX said:


www.thedrive.com

Mystery Drone Boat Washes Up Near Home Of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (Updated)

The unidentifiable unmanned surface vessel, which has features that could point to it being an explosive-laden suicide drone boat, appeared after a nearby blast.
www.thedrive.com www.thedrive.com

www.navyrecognition.com

A mysterious ukrainian naval drone discovered off Crimea

According to information published by ÐоеннÑй ÐÑведомиÑÐµÐ»Ñ on September 21, 2022, a naval drone of unknown type was discovered off the coast of Sevastopol.
www.navyrecognition.com www.navyrecognition.com
Click to expand...

According to that one article, I wonder how it could be a suicide drone boat, if it's unmanned?? Did anyone proof-read that?
 
buffnut453 said:
These videos showing Russian soldiers captured at the front lines just a few days after they're conscripted are just incredible. Just from the physical fitness perspective, these men are going to struggle...let alone basic soldier things like whether they can remember tactics, shoot, maintain their equipment (ok, the last was a silly observation since Russia isn't giving them any equipment!).

I thought the following article was interesting in the context of the conscription, even though it's a few years old. We've all known military personnel who were absolute people-of-illegitimate-parentage, particularly in training. However, in the west that's mostly a facade designed to build esprit de corps and give the trainees a common enemy to aid the team bonding process. It seems from the descriptions below that the Russian military views anything up to and including rape as simply "something that sorts the men from the boys." That really doesn't bode well for the Russian military because that sort of policy fractures unit cohesion rather than building it.

More Than a Decade After Military Reform, Hazing Still Plagues the Russian Army
Click to expand...

Back when all this started I did a couple of days researching the Russian conscription & training system and I was gobsmacked at the way their system operates (both on paper and in practice). They're stuck in this unhappy halfway house between a professional army and a conscript army and it creates huge amounts of friction between the two parts.

It's probably too long/granular to go into in this thread. But, here's some reading, if anyone is interested:

Conscription system basics:

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian military is a hybrid format combining a traditional cadre-and-reserve conscript system and a contract-professional system. While the Russian Army has made efforts to professionalize its ranks, particularly in the last 15 years, it remains
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

Assessments of professionalism in the Russian military
www.rand.org

Russia's Problems with Military Professionalization

Even if Russia manages to take control of the territory of Ukraine, the Russian military's underlying problems with professionalization may handicap these occupiers in their efforts to maintain control over that country for the long-term.
www.rand.org www.rand.org
www.wilsoncenter.org

Kennan Cable No. 67: Professionalism and Politics in the Russian Military

www.wilsoncenter.org www.wilsoncenter.org

US Congressional Research Service Russia-Ukraine campaign assessment (with section on conscription and manpower):

Russian conscription and mobilization in the Ukraine war (written by a Phd in military sciences who specalises in studying this stuff)
 
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