"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (24 Viewers)

[Admiral Beez]

If Putin's nuke threats were a drinking game, where we all had to drink a shot every time he issued a nuclear threat, we'd all be on the floor doing Irish yoga by now, absolutely hammered...

Agreed. But what other card can Putin plan when before Christmas 2022 the Kerch bridge is again hit and this time destroyed and the AFU have taken both Novooleksiivka and Kalanchak (shown below in 2014 map), putting Ukraine's forces on the border with a now undersupplied and underdefended Crimea?

When the AFU move into Crimea, Putin's entire reputation with the Russian people and more importantly its elite and powerful insiders will be mud. I thus expect Putin to make a direct threat: "the moment any AFU move into Crimea, which is Russian home territory, will will launch a nuclear strike on Kiev". Then Putin will display video footage of the ICBM silos or SSBNs preparing to launch.

 

[GrauGeist]

Vladolph doesn't really have any cards left to play.
If he blows the dam, he won't "win", Ukraine will double down (and he'll also take out a good number of his own forces, too).
If he deployed any form of nuclear weapon anywhere in Ukraine, there will be a response from the US and Allies and his "special operation" will escalate into a situation that he clearly is ill equipped to handle.

His best option is to return his forces to Russia proper, declare his "special operation" a success, hold parades, hand out medals and go on to other things.

 

[vikingBerserker]

You cannot expect an unreasonable person to be reasonable.

 

[Admiral Beez]

If he deployed any form of nuclear weapon anywhere in Ukraine, there will be a response from the US and Allies and his "special operation" will escalate into a situation that he clearly is ill equipped to handle.

If he doesn't care, and damn the consequences goes ahead and hits Kyiv with a nuke, how would the US and Allies respond? The US, Britain or France aren't going to hit Moscow with a nuclear strike. The US and NATO may go full in to destroy and push out Russian forces from Ukraine territory including Crimea, but Putin's assuming the territory is lost any way. NATO will not invade Russia itself.

Putin makes a red line at Crimea nuke threat that the US and NATO feel is credible rather than bluster. What does Biden et all do? And if the strike on Kyiv does happen?

 

[GrauGeist]

The Whitehouse stated several times, that the use of any form of nuke or chemical weapons in Ukraine will be a "serious mistake" and that Russia will "suffer serious consequences" as a result.

What that may entail, I'm not sure, but that is extremely strong language and the first time the Whitehouse has made statements of that nature since all this began back in February.

 

[vikingBerserker]

I think if he does go nuke, he risks his relationship with China and India.

 

[buffnut453]

At risk of this thread turning political again, I can't help but wonder if photos like this are giving Putler pause for thought:

Note...I'm NOT interested in getting into a discussion about the rights/wrongs of the US President meeting his Chinese counterpart. However, ANY remotely positive conversations between the two nations MUST generate discussion in Russia's halls of power.

 

[Admiral Beez]

At risk of this thread turning political again, I can't help but wonder if photos like this are giving Putler pause for thought:

View attachment 694457

Note...I'm NOT interested in getting into a discussion about the rights/wrongs of the US President meeting his Chinese counterpart. However, ANY remotely positive conversations between the two nations MUST generate discussion in Russia's halls of power.

The economies of China and the USA are strongly linked. Neither Biden or Xi will want a loser like Putin to wreck the world order. I wonder if Biden asked Xi for any advice, in proper diplomatic speak of course.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

Neither Biden or Xi will want a loser like Putin to wreck the world order.

What you wanna bet the PLA has a few ICBMs targeted on strategic points in Russia as a contingency, "just in case"? Especially one on the Fuhrerbunker.

 

[GTX]

Russian MiG-31 aircraft ‘armed with hypersonic missile’ spotted in Belarus

A Russian MiG-31K Foxhound jet fighter armed with an 'unstoppable' nuclear-capable hypersonic missile was reportedly spotted in Belarus. According to the Belarusian Hajun Project, MiG-31K aircraft with RF-92339 number together with the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (Dagger) strike system was spotted in...

defence-blog.com

 

[vikingBerserker]

I wonder if that's just a bluff, unless they are fitting them with conventional warhead.

 

[J_P_C]

if you think Ukrainians surprised you enough....

 

[RogerdeLluria]

The re are multiple UNCONFIRMED reports of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of Dnipro.
I'm skeptical, can't believe Ukrainians crossed Dnipro so easily.
However I was also surprised to see Zelensky this morning in Kherson, theoretically at artillery range from Russian maybe he knows something we don't

 

[SaparotRob]

Ukraine: Putin claims he ‘shares pain’ of troops’ mothers - live

President meets women ahead of Russia’s Mother’s Day

www.independent.co.uk

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov 'taken to hospital for heart condition at G20 summit'

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has been taken to the hospital due to a heart condition following his arrival for the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesian authorities said.
Three Indonesian government and medical officials said the Russian diplomat was being treated on the resort island.
Two said Mr Lavrov was being seen for a heart condition.

The foreign minister is due to represent the Kremlin at the summit
Thomas Kingsley reports:

Anything to avoid an interview right now. Just ask Vladolph. I guess it beats terminated velocity out the window. Too many reporters.

 

[SaparotRob]

No, Lavrov is a convenient blame-sink for Putin for when all goes to hell. He's much more useful alive.

I think that's what is keeping Shoigu away from staircases.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Now this is embedded press. I don't think I've ever seen a reporter riding on a tank in a combat zone, even if a rear area. And doesn't this camouflage scheme look good.

 

[J_P_C]

Now this is embedded press. I don't think I've ever seen a reporter riding on a tank in a combat zone, even if a rear area. And doesn't this camouflage scheme look good.

Hessian tapes camo- invented by british in the end of WWII

more modern version of multispectral camo

 

[buffnut453]

The re are multiple UNCONFIRMED reports of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of Dnipro.
I'm skeptical, can't believe Ukrainians crossed Dnipro so easily.
However I was also surprised to see Zelensky this morning in Kherson, theoretically at artillery range from Russian maybe he knows something we don't

Agree that seems VERY rapid....but I am SO hoping it's true.

Thanks for sharing these updates, Roger.

 

[J_P_C]

The re are multiple UNCONFIRMED reports of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of Dnipro.
I'm skeptical, can't believe Ukrainians crossed Dnipro so easily.
However I was also surprised to see Zelensky this morning in Kherson, theoretically at artillery range from Russian maybe he knows something we don't

if it is true Ukrainians made incredible use of 40 Riverine boats donated by US...

 

[Admiral Beez]

if it is true Ukrainians made incredible use of 40 Riverine boats donated by US...

Agreed. Plus Ukraine is a maritime nation with a strong boatbuilding history, which is why they're being targeted.

Ukrainian RIB plant completely destroyed â INTERPARUS

Yesterday (07/26/22) an anti-aircraft missile destroyed the factory of the manufacturer of inflatable boats MS Marine in Nikolaev. We tell the details of another senseless attack.

interparus.com

But attacks aside, I bet they've been whipping up boats for this and other crossings.

Is the crossing at the dam completely destroyed? It looked like the Russians just wrecked the smaller diversion dam at the far side. A bridge might be possible.