"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (18 Viewers)

[WARSPITER]

Found another comment posted by a German reader on a news site which is worth considering.

His take was that there is still an embedded cold war psyche in many people who experienced the cold war
and that is that had anything kicked off - even without nuclear weapons involved, Germany would have been demolished
as East and West were the front line. Living through that for a length of time is going to stick.

Poland is now in the same position and has decided to do what they deem to be right.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Not sure how realistic this would be:

Rheinmetall is ready to undertake the modernization of Leopard 1 and Challenger 1 tanks for Ukraine.

Rheinmetall is ready to undertake the modernization of Leopard 1 and Challenger 1 tanks for Ukraine. - War

ubn.news

The Leopard 1 has almost no armour protection against anything. I'd give good odds on the BMP-2's 30mm autocannon with AP rounds piercing the frontal armour (max 70 mm) of a Leopard 1. Just look at the driver's feet, no way that thin band of rolled steel is protecting our man here.

Here's what Ukraine's Leopard 1s will look like.

On the larger point, no one is going to want to buy shite from Rheinmetall or any of Germany's arms manufacturers unless they must. If I'm a government looking for submarines, for example, I'll look to South Korea's KSS-III before buying Germany's Type 212. There's just too many political restrictions evident when the sh#t hits the fan and the fighting gets real.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

People also have to remember that the German people were decimated by two world wars. They are quite content with the military being "for defense only" part of their post WW2 constitution (a part that was required by the allies).

Is it time for things to change? I believe so, but it's hard to force change overnight.

Also I agree with GFX here. I think there is a lot more to it than many people here in this thread are choosing to ignore. Poland and others appear to be rattling sabres and saying they want to provide tanks but have done nothing to actually get permission. Could this be maybe a deliberate ploy by them to change the face of the international defense industry. No country is going to give a blanket "export approval" for any weapons built in their industry. It is an easy way to lose control over it, and an easy way for weapons and technology to end up in the wrong hands. Think about it for a second. If it were that easy and not complicated, what's holding up the US from telling the world they can send M1 Abrams to Ukraine without any oversight.

Simply put, if Poland was serious about sending Leo 2s, they would have done the contractually required steps and formally asked for permission rather than blow hard to the press.

Ask yourself why has Poland not asked for permission? Germany's foreign minister said they would not interfere with Poland sending tanks if they would seek permission.

"Asked what would happen if Poland went ahead and sent its Leopard 2 tanks without German approval, Annalena Baerbock said on France's LCI TV: "For the moment the question has not been asked, but if we were asked we would not stand in the way."

Germany would not block Poland from sending tanks to Ukraine, minister says

Berlin has so far held back from sending them or allowing other NATO countries to do so.

www.reuters.com

So, yeah, if some people here would set their emotions aside for one minute, they would see there is more than meets the eye here.

I don't expect that though. People won't see the big picture when their minds are already made up which is pretty "shite"…

 

[Admiral Beez]

So, yeah, if some people here would set their emotions aside for one minute, they would see there is more than meets the eye here.

The Poles showed their true intentions and nature back in spring 2022 with that silliness over the MiG-29s to Ukraine through USA in Germany scheme. But I wish someone had asked the German minister if anyone else has asked if their Leopards can be sent. If the Germans aren't holding up the tanks, and the Poles aren't either, then who is?

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

The Poles showed their true intentions and nature back in spring 2022 with that silliness over the MiG-29s to Ukraine through USA in Germany scheme. But I wish someone had asked the German minister if anyone else has asked if their Leopards can be sent. If the Germans aren't holding up the tanks, and the Poles aren't either, then who is?

I think there are several things at play…

1. I think its a matter of nobody is really serious about it, but do not want to seem to be the ones holding it up. When I say not serious, they would love to do it, but don't want to be the target of a Russian nuke strike which Russia has threatened.

Will Russia actually shoot a nuke? Probably not, but the threat has to be taken seriously. Especially when you are a country like Poland and Germany that are much closer to the front lines.

And this goes for everyone, not just Poland, Sweden, Germany, and Spain. Why has the US not sent Abrams? Why has France and England not sent more tanks?

2. It's about ensuring your stocks are not depleted in the event war comes to your border. Think about it, if Poland sends a few hundred Leo 2's to Ukraine before they receive replacement tanks such as new Abrams or Leo 2s, how does that effect their readiness. The government of Poland's first and foremost responsibility is to protect its people and borders.

So sure they may be saying they want to send tanks, but they will not ask for permission until they get something in return. I don't blame them.

But if you can make someone else look like the hold up, wouldn't you?

3. Possibly an ulterior motive of shifting the face of the European arms industry by making the leading country look bad, and making others consider purchasing tanks from another supplier, a supplier that will be in Poland producing these tanks under license. People buying tanks from Korea/Poland and not Germany equals more jobs and money in Poland, and weakens Germany.

"Under its agreement with Seoul, Poland aims to eventually have 1,000 K2 tanks and 672 K9 howitzers, including "polonised" versions produced in Poland, reports Business Insider Polska. In total, Poland's arms purchases from South Korea this year have reached $12.3 billion."

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/12/06/first-korean-tanks-and-howitzers-arrive-in-poland/

So again, if Poland simply has to do the contractually required permissions, why have they not done so?

All these countries may be allies, but don't kid yourself, they are first and foremost out to preserve their own self interests.

 

[Denniss]

The Leo 1s could be good for training Ukraine's tank crews to the new concept of 4-men crew.
Later versions had the turret uparmored considerably but not much was done for the hull. You'll never know what modifications could be made by Ukrainians.
Combat options would be firing from ambush positions or use as mobile artillery.
The A5 version could be equipped with the 120mm gun if desired

 

[Admiral Beez]

The Leo 1s could be good for training Ukraine's tank crews to the new concept of 4-men crew.

The better investment is to buy up every T-72 variant across Africa and Asia and ship them to Ukraine.

And this goes for everyone, not just Poland, Sweden, Germany, and Spain. Why has the US not sent Abrams? Why has France and England not sent more tanks?

To be fair, the fourteen Challengers Britain just sent (or is sending) represent nearly 4% of the entire British Army's 386-strong MBT force, including units in reserve/storage. I could see the British sending up to 20% of their fleet to Ukraine, or about 75 tanks. But that's about it.

If Leopards are off the table for 2023, and Macron won't part with Lecercs, then I think with the exception of a dozen-odd Challengers, Ukraine needs to settle for T-72 and T-90 variants. How many more of these in usable condition are available in Africa and Asia from regimes willing to part with them? Too bad India is so pro-Russian, as they have thousands of these.

Can Ukraine take back the occupied territory and Crimea without Western tanks but with a steady supply of other systems like MRLS, MANPATS/PADS, Bradleys, etc?

 

[GrauGeist]

Ukraine needs air superiority foremost.

When that happens, anything the Russians have on the ground will at risk.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

The better investment is to buy up every T-72 variant across Africa and Asia and ship them to Ukraine.

To be fair, the fourteen Challengers Britain just sent (or is sending) represent nearly 4% of the entire active British Army's 386-strong MBT force, including units in reserve/storage. I could see the British sending up to 20% of their fleet to Ukraine, or about 75 tanks. But that's about it.

If Leopards are off the table for 2023, and Macron won't part with Lecercs, then I think with the exception of a dozen-odd Challengers, Ukraine needs to settle for T-72 and T-90 variants. How many more of these in usable condition are available in Africa and Asia from regimes willing to part with them? Too bad India is so pro-Russian, as they have thousands of these.

Can Ukraine take back the occupied territory and Crimea without Western tanks but with a steady supply of other systems like MRLS, MANPATS/PADS, Bradleys, etc?

I would not expect the Brits to send more than 4-5% of their active force. Remember that they have to keep their readiness at proper levels.

My point was simply there are all sorts of reasons the Leo2 deal is possibly being held up, and if people would realistically set their emotions and preconceived bias aside, they would see not all fingers point to Germany.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

And to answer your question. This is a war of attrition. No, Ukraine needs western tanks. Whatever the holdup is, it needs to come to an end.

Whatever back room discussions are taking place between Germany, Poland, USA, and probably a butt load of other countries needs to get it sorted out.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ukraine needs air superiority foremost. When that happens, anything the Russians have on the ground will at risk.

That's even less likely than MBTs. This war's been going on for eleven months and the only western-designed manned aircraft provided to Ukraine are a trio of mothballed retired-FAA Westland Sea Kings. Not even a single UH-1 helicopter, and forget anything fixed wing that can fire a radar-guided missile.

 

[SaparotRob]

It could be foolish optimism but I believe we're going to see a bunch of F-16s with blue and yellow roundels sooner than we thought.

 

[Frog]

Very reminiscent of pictures of Belgian and French towns taken during WWI. Heartbreaking.

And WW 2 also : Butcha has similarities with Oradour and Tulle.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Whatever back room discussions are taking place between Germany, Poland, USA, and probably a butt load of other countries needs to get it sorted out.

There's also the possibility that behind closed doors NATO is happy enough for Ukraine and Russia to return to their pre-2022 borders, with Russia holding Crimea and Russian-backed separatists holding Donbas. There will be those who just want the wheat, oil and money flows to return to what they were.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Everything is possible, but I don't think that is the case.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The task is not finished until the paperwork is completed and filed....(notice on privy wall)

... which is why USAF had three-ply toilet paper. If it's not done in triplicate, it's not done.

 

[gumbyk]

Whatever back room discussions are taking place between Germany, Poland, USA, and probably a butt load of other countries needs to get it sorted out.

There was a meeting of 50 countries to discuss sending further equipment to Ukraine, and pressure Germany to give approval on 20th January. From what I read, it's not only Poland waiting for approval, but they may be the noisiest ones.

Somehow I don't think that would have happened if Germany were simply 'waiting for Poland to formally request approval'. There are a lot of negotiations that go on prior to formally requesting these things. The formal request is almost the last step in the process.

 

[Denniss]

Poland likes to play the blame game on Germany. It's part of their political agenda to blame everything on Germany and EU.
At least they are actively helping the Ukrainians unlike Orban in Hungary.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I think there's probably a lot of back-room elbowing being done not only in Brussels but also in the individual capitals for the reason @DerAdlerIstGelandet mentioned, the issue of denuding one's own forces before receiving backfill in an evolving situation.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Poland likes to play the blame game on Germany. It's part of their political agenda to blame everything on Germany and EU.

I have a Polish friend on another, political forum who reports the same thing about internal Polish politics, the judiciary, etc. Not wanting to broach that subject, but what he reports certainly backs up what you're implying, that much of this may be for internal news consumption, with the added benefit of making the Polish government look strong internationally.

That being said, I don't doubt Ukraine appreciates what the Poles have done in their support.