"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)

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North section of Bakhmut now looking critical. Russian advance now of depth and width that they can move forward without worrying about their left flank.

There were some partially successful local Ukrainian counterattacks on the south side in the past 24 hours, but they only gained a kilometer or a little over in a couple of places. If I was a pessimist, I'd say these attacks are focused on securing control of the southern highway, ensuring there is an exit route for a withdrawal. Plus, the Ukranians have been destroying bridges in the eastern and western sections of the city.

Losing the city would hurt Ukraine from a symbolic point of view, but Bakhmut doesn't appear to be that critical in terms of the defense of overall front and grand strategy.

The battle for city has been costly to both sides, but given that Russia has been assaulting the city for close to 10 months at this point and it's been the main target of the winter offensive this year, I'd say the defenders have given WAY better than they've gotten.

What will be interesting is any subsequent maneuvering. Even if there's a Ukrainian pull out I doubt that Wagner and Russian forces in the area are in any shape to advance rapidly. Plus, there are a couple of natural and urban features in the area that make for obvious new defensive lines.
Ukraine are saying that Russia lost seven for every one of their losses. I would expect this to be exagerated a little but five to one in this situation is quite probable
 
I've seen several videos that are certainly NSFW or for the lighthearted, showing Ukrainian troops cutting down Russian troops like grass.

It's inevitable that Ukrainian elements will withdraw from Bakhmut, but the Russians have been critically drained of resources for their Pyrric victory, which, I am willing to bet, will be short lived.

If we look at a current map of the Bakhmut front, notice how the Russians have concentrated on that area and have created a "bulge".

The Ukrainians are very deliberate and I am willing to bet that a hammer is soon to drop on a a well designed anvil...
 
From ISW:


Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will likely not be able to encircle the city soon. Russian forces made one limited confirmed advance near Bakhmut on March 4.[1] As ISW reported on March 3, Ukrainian forces are likely setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal out of particularly difficult sectors of eastern Bakhmut, although it is not clear that Ukrainian commanders have decided to withdraw at this time.[2] Russian sources claim that Wagner Group elements have made gains in northeastern and eastern Bakhmut over the past few days, creating a tactically challenging turning movement in urban areas in northern Bakhmut.[3] Ukrainian officials have recently reiterated that Ukrainian forces still control the situation in Bakhmut but have noted that circumstances are increasingly complicated and that the Wagner Group has committed its most advanced and prepared elements to assault operations in the area.[4]

Russian advances in Bakhmut have been slow and gradual and do not suggest that Russian forces will be able to encircle Bakhmut soon, much less that they will be able to take the city by frontal assaults. The Russians have, rather, managed to push close enough to critical ground lines of communication from the northeast to threaten Ukrainian withdrawal routes in a classical envelopment maneuver. The purpose of a turning movement is to force the enemy to abandon prepared defensive positions and is different from the aim of an encirclement, which is to trap and destroy enemy forces. The Russians may have intended to encircle Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement. ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces are far more likely to withdraw than to become encircled and that the Ukrainians might still be able to hold their positions in Bakhmut if they choose to try.


 
To all those who continually suggest that Russian supply problems are less than those faced by the Ukrainians.....

"In late February, reservists described being ordered to assault a Ukrainian position "armed with only 'firearms and shovels'", the ministry said in its latest intelligence update.

It mentioned a shovel known as MPL-50.

The tool was designed in 1869 and had changed little, the ministry said.

"The lethality of the standard-issue MPL-50 entrenching tool is particularly mythologised in Russia," the ministry said.
The continued use of the shovel "as a weapon highlights the brutal and low-tech fighting which has come to characterise much of the war", it said.

One of the reservists described being "neither physically nor psychologically" prepared for the action, the update added.
"Recent evidence suggests an increase in close combat in Ukraine," it said.

"This is probably a result of the Russian command continuing to insist on offensive action largely consisting of dismounted infantry, with less support from artillery fire because Russia is short of munitions."

The BBC has been unable to independently verify these reports. The ministry did not give information on where such battles were taking place.



 
From ISW:


Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will likely not be able to encircle the city soon. Russian forces made one limited confirmed advance near Bakhmut on March 4.[1] As ISW reported on March 3, Ukrainian forces are likely setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal out of particularly difficult sectors of eastern Bakhmut, although it is not clear that Ukrainian commanders have decided to withdraw at this time.[2] Russian sources claim that Wagner Group elements have made gains in northeastern and eastern Bakhmut over the past few days, creating a tactically challenging turning movement in urban areas in northern Bakhmut.[3] Ukrainian officials have recently reiterated that Ukrainian forces still control the situation in Bakhmut but have noted that circumstances are increasingly complicated and that the Wagner Group has committed its most advanced and prepared elements to assault operations in the area.[4]

Russian advances in Bakhmut have been slow and gradual and do not suggest that Russian forces will be able to encircle Bakhmut soon, much less that they will be able to take the city by frontal assaults. The Russians have, rather, managed to push close enough to critical ground lines of communication from the northeast to threaten Ukrainian withdrawal routes in a classical envelopment maneuver. The purpose of a turning movement is to force the enemy to abandon prepared defensive positions and is different from the aim of an encirclement, which is to trap and destroy enemy forces. The Russians may have intended to encircle Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement. ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces are far more likely to withdraw than to become encircled and that the Ukrainians might still be able to hold their positions in Bakhmut if they choose to try.


I found this part of the paper most interesting

Russian State Duma Defense Committee Head Andrey Kartapalov stated that Russian companies should purchase their own air defense systems to defend against drones. A Russian state-owned news source reported that Kartapalov claimed on March 1 that Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) resources are focused on protecting critical state and military facilities. He argued that every "self-respecting corporation" should be able to purchase and install such systems for themselves

If this isn't a clear admission that the Russian Armed forces are

A) running out of equipment and people with the skill to use it, and
B) starting to panic,

I don't know what is.
 
To all those who continually suggest that Russian supply problems are less than those faced by the Ukrainians.....

"In late February, reservists described being ordered to assault a Ukrainian position "armed with only 'firearms and shovels'", the ministry said in its latest intelligence update.

It mentioned a shovel known as MPL-50.

The tool was designed in 1869 and had changed little, the ministry said.

"The lethality of the standard-issue MPL-50 entrenching tool is particularly mythologised in Russia," the ministry said.
The continued use of the shovel "as a weapon highlights the brutal and low-tech fighting which has come to characterise much of the war", it said.

One of the reservists described being "neither physically nor psychologically" prepared for the action, the update added.
"Recent evidence suggests an increase in close combat in Ukraine," it said.

"This is probably a result of the Russian command continuing to insist on offensive action largely consisting of dismounted infantry, with less support from artillery fire because Russia is short of munitions."

The BBC has been unable to independently verify these reports. The ministry did not give information on where such battles were taking place.



The Ukrainians also know their shovels.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fzs_dYE6MjA
 
The MPL-50/SIS-50 is a legendary bit of kit in Russia. It's been modified and updated for 150 years, but remains recognizably the same basic design. It is a centrepiece of a lot of combat stories that came out of WW1 and WW2. It has a certain timeless mystique.

There's a whole combat doctrine that's been built up in Russia over the last 120+ years using the entrenching shovel as an erstaz axe/hatchet. Standard Russian infantry combat training includes specific instruction on using the shovel as a close quarters combat weapon. At least it did a decade ago (when I went on a kick about learning about Russian infantry, for some weird reason). Russian special forces training doubles down on this, up to the point they consider it a viable throwing weapon.

It seems silly, but saying that Russian troops are using the MPL-50 in hand-to-hand is no more weird than saying the US Marines are using a Ka-Bar or the Ghurkas are using the Kukri.

What's weird is that they're engaging in hand-to-hand combat. In the age of plentiful and cheap small calibre assault carbines, SMGs and high capacity semi-automatic pistols, I find it bizarre that their troops would be so poorly equipped so as to need to use melee combat weapons.
 
What's weird is that they're engaging in hand-to-hand combat. In the age of plentiful and cheap small calibre assault carbines, SMGs and high capacity semi-automatic pistols, I find it bizarre that their troops would be so poorly equipped so as to need to use melee combat weapons.

This is the real point. Any infantryman knows that in hand-to-hand combat, anything and everything is a weapon, and a shovel can be mighty useful in that sense -- it's got some heft, some reach, and a blade at the end designed to cut earth -- and it's man-portable.

But as you say, in a world where cheap grease-guns and pistols abound, the idea of training one's troops specifically to use a shovel as a weapon is kinda odd. Seems to me that that utility should be apparent without any need for training ... and that such training might be a tacit admission of sorts. "You may not be able to keep the enemy at a distance, so just in case ..."
 
I've heard some first-hand accounts by Marines who were in the Pacific as well as Korea and it came down to several occasions where shovels, helmets and just about anything else, were employed to repel enemy attacks.
There were some examples of this in Iraq. However back to the topic I thought that Bayonets were the first choice in these situations
 

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