"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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I don't own a motorized vehicle so the price of petrol is not an issue.

However I do enjoy a nice packet of crisps. And the cost will rise due to increased transport costs.

I am aware that the price of petrol in USA is a hot topic. So we shall see if the population is as forgiving as you guys.

I guess one thing is true. I have no idea what's going on. When I wake up in the morning, first thing I do is check news to see what's happening. See if Kyiv is still there.

I suppose waking up in the first place is a good sign of no nuclear strike so on a win already.
 
I don't own a motorized vehicle so the price of petrol is not an issue.

However I do enjoy a nice packet of crisps. And the cost will rise due to increased transport costs.

I am aware that the price of petrol in USA is a hot topic. So we shall see if the population is as forgiving as you guys.

I guess one thing is true. I have no idea what's going on. When I wake up in the morning, first thing I do is check news to see what's happening. See if Kyiv is still there.

I suppose waking up in the first place is a good sign of no nuclear strike so on a win already.

So I guess we should just let Putin rape and pillage Ukraine so you can have a cheap packets of Walkers Crisps and we can enjoy cheap gas?
 
When I wake up in the morning, first thing I do is check news to see what's happening. See if Kyiv is still there.
Me too. And you can get the Ukraine update in the first two minutes. The rest of the news is talking heads and time-filling commentary.
So I guess we should just let Putin rape and pillage Ukraine so you can have a cheap packets of Walkers Crisps…
Yeah, that's what he meant. What a dopey comment.
 
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There seems to be a general agreement that Russia has now committed almost all its front line troops into the conflict. This has got to be a serious concern for Putin and the leadership.

Without reserves you cannot exploit opportunities, you cannot rotate or rest your troops, you cannot maintain your combat capability and with that, you cannot maintain your morale.

If he hasn't got the wherewithal to supply his troops with fuel and food then I would be surprised if the Russian Army to have the logistical support and workshops to keep the heavy equipment in fighting condition. If the Ukraine can hold out for another 10 to 14 days then I wouldn't be surprised to see the Russian effort come apart.

Also in 10 to 14 days the impact on the Russian economy will be clear to even Putin's biggest supporters.

Its going to be a very tense couple of weeks
 
If the Ukraine can hold out for another 10 to 14 days then I wouldn't be surprised to see the Russian effort come apart.
No way Russia can encircle and strangle Kyiv in 14 days. Every day the Ukrainians receive more MANPATS/PADS, other weaponry and international legion reinforcements.

The first offensive should have been straight south from Belarus along Ukraine's border with Poland to cut off resupply.
 
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There seems to be a general agreement that Russia has now committed almost all its front line troops into the conflict. This has got to be a serious concern for Putin and the leadership.

Without reserves you cannot exploit opportunities, you cannot rotate or rest your troops, you cannot maintain your combat capability and with that, you cannot maintain your morale.

If he hasn't got the wherewithal to supply his troops with fuel and food then I would be surprised if the Russian Army to have the logistical support and workshops to keep the heavy equipment in fighting condition. If the Ukraine can hold out for another 10 to 14 days then I wouldn't be surprised to see the Russian effort come apart.

Also in 10 to 14 days the impact on the Russian economy will be clear to even Putin's biggest supporters.

Its going to be a very tense couple of weeks

My understanding is that the forces committed to the invasion of Ukraine are reservists, and the Russians are keeping first-line troops in reserve, perhaps to guard against NATO "intervention". The Russians could and probably will still win out despite the best efforts of Ukrainian fighters, if they decide to commit regular troops to it.

That would clearly be a bad mistake, bogging the Russians down for a decade to come, I reckon.
 
My understanding is that the forces committed to the invasion of Ukraine are reservists, and the Russians are keeping first-line troops in reserve, perhaps to guard against NATO "intervention". The Russians could and probably will still win out despite the best efforts of Ukrainian fighters, if they decide to commit regular troops to it.

That would clearly be a bad mistake, bogging the Russians down for a decade to come, I reckon.

Agreed

My understanding is that it is 100% of the forces dedicated to the invasion of Ukraine are committed. It's not 100% of Russias forces. His first line and majority of his forces are not committed, and same for the equipment. Putin simply thought the conscripts and reserves would suffice for an easy victory.
 
Agreed

My understanding is that it is 100% of the forces dedicated to the invasion of Ukraine are committed. It's not 100% of Russias forces. His first line and majority of his forces are not committed, and same for the equipment. Putin simply thought the conscripts and reserves would suffice for an easy victory.

He and his subordinate staff clearly underestimated operational requirements. I too had read that the 180,000 deployed in the build-up are now pretty much fully committed (aside from odds and sods). I don't know that Russia has much in their tank, given the need to guard against NATO, and still man the frontier at a light level.
 
As I've mentioned before, my thought is that the top Russian equipment is being held back for a couple reasons:
The Ukraine should have been taken easily.
There would be the possibility of NATO confrontation.

On the second point, I have suggested that the exposed convoys and unescorted troop transports seemed to me as NATO bait, because no one could be that sloppy with an operation.

Which leads us to another solid point:
Putin has always insisted that NATO has always been a threat to Russia.
And yet, here we are with not so much as a single twitch from NATO during this entire crisis.

So no wonder ol' Vlad is angry - the Ukraine has shown how much he underestimated them and NATO proved him to be a liar...
 
On the second point, I have suggested that the exposed convoys and unescorted troop transports seemed to me as NATO bait, because no one could be that sloppy with an operation.

Forgive the Wiki:

Hanlon's razor is an adage or rule of thumb that states "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."[1]

 
The Head of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention of Ukraine (NACP) Oleksandr Novikov sent a thank you letter to the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu praising his efforts to ensure the high level of corruption in the Russian army.

As particular examples of Shoigu's efforts to disgrace the Russian army, the Head of the NACP names the following facts the Ukrainian army discovered during the war started by Russia on February 24, 2022:

  • Case 1. Ukrainian army discovered that the protection of Russian tanks T-72 and T-80 was made from cardboard egg trays.
Tank-e1646922478634.jpg


  • Case 2. "Bulletproof" vests of Russian forces are made of cardboard instead of armored plates. Such "bulletproof" vests were worn by the crew members of the Russian Barnaul-T armored car captured by the Ukrainian army. Thanks to such powerful protection, now the armored car serves in the ranks of the Ukrainian defense forces and helps to resist the aggressor.
vest.jpg


  • Case 3. Russian army uses ZIL-130 to transfer its soldiers. The bright aquamarine color of the vehicle and the lack of coverage makes it an easy target even for the inexperienced weapon user.
trak.jpg


As the body responsible for identifying and preventing conflicts of interest, the NACP could not ignore the fact that cardboard bulletproof vests contained the bulletin named "On the Procedure for Detecting Corruption and Other Violations of Conflict of Interest in Military Units".

The NACP identified the risk that the private interest of a Russian soldier to save his life instead of following the orders of his commander is still extremely high.

In this regard, the NACP proposed to reduce the likelihood of a conflict of interest by supplementing the bulletins with the following step-by-step instructions:
"In case of crossing the border with Ukraine, a Russian serviceman is obliged to:
– get to the nearest settlement;
– move away from the equipment at a safe distance and drop the weapon;
– ask for forgiveness for crossing the border without passport control;
– wait for the Ukrainian military, who will allow him to call his mother;
– wait for his return home".

The Head of NACP expressed hope for fruitful cooperation on the recommendations provided.

He also noted that the letter was sent now because Russia's Minister still has foreign computer equipment that allows him to view photos.

See the full letter in Russian by the link and the original letter (in Russian) by the link.

To paise Russian corruption in general, the NACP has also developed a video available in English, Ukrainian, and Russian.
 

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