"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

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Aparently, fairly large, from the looks of the damage to various sites since February.
It was even suggested at one time, that the "damage" to the Moskva was due to "someone smoking in an area they were not supposed to be".

Perhaps the US Surgeon General's warning on American cigarettes should be changed to:
"Warning, cigarettes are known to destroy ammunition dumps and airfields, sink Cruisers, explode munition factories and may complicate pregnancy"

As I noted above: even if the Russian explanation is 100% true, that bespeaks poor training, poor discipline, or both.

That's not something I'd want to admit to my enemy.
 
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This talk of the cigarette/smoking/explosion problem reminded me of the billions of cigarettes that the US tobacco companies sent to the crumbling Soviet states in the early-1990s. Maybe there was some-long range planning going on? Sleeper agent cigarettes? A cigarette centered insurgency? Psycho-cigarette warfare?

"U.S. Tobacco Companies Supplying Cigarettes to Russian Republic"
 
This talk of the cigarette/smoking/explosion problem reminded me of the billions of cigarettes that the US tobacco companies sent to the crumbling Soviet states in the early-1990s. Maybe there was some-long range planning going on? Sleeper agent cigarettes? A cigarette centered insurgency? Psycho-cigarette warfare?

"U.S. Tobacco Companies Supplying Cigarettes to Russian Republic"
The biggest CIA sucess ever!
 
True in many ways, but they still need an airforce with western kit. The supply of ex soviet equipment must be close to the bottom of the barrel.

They're working on it:


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked since March for American-made F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. But Ukrainian pilots accustomed to aging Soviet-era MiG-29s and Sukhoi planes have not been trained to use U.S. fighter jets, a process that could take months.

Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., told Defense News he has been in touch with the Kyiv on the matter and that he added the $100 million for training as an amendment to the defense authorization bill this week in order to facilitate an eventual shift of Ukraine's military hardware away from Soviet-era technology.

"What we want to do is obviously send a message to authorize the process," Kinzinger told Defense News. "There is no doubt to me that when this war ends, Ukraine is going to have to be outfitted with western military equipment. Plus, there's just no more MiGs left and no more MiG supplies."


 
Plus, there's just no more MiGs left and no more MiG supplies."
I imagine we'd need to scour Africa's plentiful MiG and T-72 stockpiles for anything moderately operational or repairable. Much will be junk, but for the right price or prodding the African states may part with their better kit.

How difficult is it to convert from MiGs to F-16s? Is it akin to converting from a horsecart to a Tesla?
 
I think the one oddity is the location of the stick. The F-16 has it on the side.
The F-16 is "fly by wire", so it ended up with a "side stick". The F-22 is set up like that, too.

Some cars have "steer by wire" but SAAB took that one step further with their 9000 and had a "drive by wire" side stick in the console instead of a steering wheel! :shock:
 
I imagine we'd need to scour Africa's plentiful MiG and T-72 stockpiles for anything moderately operational or repairable. Much will be junk, but for the right price or prodding the African states may part with their better kit.

Yeah, my bet's on junk as far as airplanes go. Aside from parlous budgets that see overhaul intervals probably only honored in the breach, the operational environments are pretty tough as well. BOAC can attest to that from their experiences in the 60s.

Whether or not a tin-horn dictator would want to part with operational tanks is also questionable to my mind, when we consider the sheer number of coups d'etat that have happened in Africa in the last few years. My suspicion is that those armies will want to hold onto any working armor they have in order to cow the restless millions or support their own planned overthrows.

How difficult is it to convert from MiGs to F-16s? Is it akin to converting from a horsecart to a Tesla?

As GG points out, that was touched-upon above, and it's not as drastic as horsecart to Tesla, I don't think -- but there must still be some big operational hurdles. Aside from control layouts and metric-to English conversions, you're also looking at learning the flight envelope of the particular aircraft as well as learning the software sufficiently to get the most out of the airframe. UAF pilots with time in Soviet-era aircraft will likely have some transferrable skills, but will still be facing a fairly steep learning curve, is my guess.

As an example, it took the reserve 301st TFW at my base about eight months to transition from F-4Es to F-16As in 1990-91, and that was with a common language and units of measure, albeit with a vastly different and improved airframe. So there's no one easy answer to this question.
 
In addition to training the pilots, there are the problems of maintenance personnel training and establishment of logistics pipelines.

Even if the UAF had enough pilots with enough skill that they could transfer to F-15s (for example) tomorrow, it would not be possible to provide support tomorrow unless we treat the airframes as ~disposable - ie if the airframe becomes unserviceable the pilot draws another from the parking lot. Training/retraining key technical personnel (even skilled people) could take longer than training the pilots.

Establishing a secure (enough) logistics pipeline could also be problematic.

There is also the problem of numbers. This is just my take on the situation, but I do not see a trickle of airframes as a winning move. We will have to train and equip significant numbers of personnel and deploy them as units in order to have a major effect. Even if we assume that the F-15 is a significantly superior airframe to the Russian airframes, and that the UAF pilots are significantly superior to the RF pilots, how many operational F-15s would be needed to have a major effect. I could be wrong but I think we are talking about sustaining 2 full squadrons at the absolute minimum - just for any chance of limited air superiority and/or defense of important targets and top cover during ground operations. And I think we are talking about similar numbers of A-10 or F-16 for having a major effect in the CAS/ground attack arena. The areas of operations in the Ukraine are too large and far apart for small numbers.

I do not know how vulnerable the Ukrainian air assets really are, but any airframes that cannot be operated from roadways or austere airfields, and moved around on a regular basis, will be vulnerable to attack by the same longer range missiles currently being used by the RF to bombard targets anywhere in Ukraine. Fixed bases will not work without an effective and sustainable EW and SAM net.
 
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In addition to training the pilots, there are the problems of maintenance personnel training and establishment of logistics pipelines.

Even if the UAF had enough pilots with enough skill that they could transfer to F-15s (for example) tomorrow, it would not be possible to provide support tomorrow unless we treat the airframes as ~disposable - ie if the airframe becomes unserviceable the pilot draws another from the parking lot. Training/retraining key technical personnel (even skilled people) could take longer than training the pilots.

Establishing a secure (enough) logistics pipeline could also be problematic.

In its entirety this is an excellent point. Airplanes are only useful so long as you can keep them flying.

Of course, you could train the ground crews while the pilots are training as well, but you will still have the logistical issues. Thankfully Ukraine has overland resupply but all the same, as you imply, those routes too are subject to interdiction, which means that this shift to Western gear probably will not be complete unless and until Ukraine wins out here, however that might be defined.
 
:-k hmmm . . I just though of something. Maybe we should include "cigarette boats", aka "cigar boats", in the next aid package. Better yet - stealth cigarette/cigar boats. No RF coastal/riverside installation/base or ship would be safe from fires/explosions.
 
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