"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)

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New training regime.


WASHINGTON — The United States is expanding the number of Ukrainian troops it instructs at a base in Germany, with a new focus on advanced battlefield tactics, the Pentagon announced on Thursday.
The expanded training would emphasize "combined arms" warfare — tight coordination among infantry, artillery, armored vehicles and, when it is available, air support, so that each group is strengthened and protected by the others.
Ukrainian officials have been wary of pulling too many troops off the front lines at any given time for specialized training given the intensity of the war. But with winter slowing the tempo of fighting in many parts of the combat zone, officials said the coming months would provide a window for more troops to benefit from training.
The training is expected to begin in January and would enable American instructors to train a Ukrainian battalion, or about 500 troops, each month, a number that could grow, Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said at a news briefing. Other U.S. officials said the battalions could range up to 800 soldiers each.
American forces are now training about 300 Ukrainians per month — and have trained 3,100 since the war began — focused on teaching them to use specific advanced U.S. weapons systems. That includes 610 soldiers who have learned to use the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, that Ukraine has used to devastating effect against Russian forces, hitting targets far behind the front lines, including ammunition depots, command posts and bridges.
 
Open source documented Russian tank losses passed 1500 a couple of days ago. Around 500 of those have been captured! Aircraft combat losses have reached roughly 60 jets and 60 helicopters a piece. More than that have definitely gone down, but getting visual confirmation is much more difficult than with ground vehicles.

Ukrainian claims are now:

Tanks: 2975
Other AFVs: 5946
Artillery pieces (all kinds): 1943
Fixed wing aircraft: 284
Helicopters: 261
Personnel: 96,500 killed, 1000+ PoW, 289,000 wounded

Whole thing has just turned back into a bloody war of attrition.

I wonder if the recent freezing weather is going to lead to a new mobile phase, or if both sides are just going to dig in for the winter? Pro-Ukrainian social media accounts seem very positive over the last two to three weeks.
 
I hope Germany and/or Rheinmetall do everything they can to buy back Gepards from foreign operators (Brazil, Jordan?) to supply them for Ukraine to counter the endless missile/drone attacks on their energy systems. If Romania still operates Gepards they should ask Germany to deliver their ammo stock of swiss origin (as Nato aid), then 'loan' some or all of their Gepards to Ukraine.
BTW really strange to see everyone develops and uses Drones but no one has actually develop cost effective measures to shoot them out of the sky (other than to waste expensive AA missiles). Same for cruise missiles - couple of thousand bucks bring down a multi-million bucks rocket.
 
KYIV, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Russia fired more than 70 missiles during Friday's morning rush hour in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, forcing emergency power cuts nationwide, Ukrainian officials said.

Two people were killed when an apartment block was hit in central Kryvyi Rih and another died in shelling in Kherson in the south, they said. Russian-installed officials in occupied eastern Ukraine said 11 people had died in Ukrainian shelling.


Kyiv warned late on Thursday that Moscow plans a new all-out offensive early next year, around a year after its Feb. 24 invasion, which has destroyed huge areas of Ukraine but brought little of it under Moscow's control.

Russia has rained missiles on Ukrainian energy infrastructure almost weekly since early October after a series of battlefield defeats, but Friday's attack appeared to have caused more damage than many others.

"What we already see is damage to about nine (power) generating facilities," Energy Minister German Galushchenko said, adding that investigations were continuing.

Russia flew warplanes near Ukraine to try to distract its air defences, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said.



... and from ISW:

These two military efforts are failing to coerce Ukraine into negotiating or offering preemptive concessions, and Ukraine has retained the battlefield initiative following its two successive counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts. Putin may therefore be setting conditions for a third, sequential military effort in the likely event that these two efforts fail to secure his objectives by preparing for a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the winter of 2023. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny suggested that such an offensive could take place as early as January, in the worst-case scenario, and March, in the best case.[6] Zaluzhny additionally observed that this new offensive could take the form of another mechanized attack against Kyiv from Belarusian territory.[7] As ISW has previously reported, there are a series of observed indicators that suggest that Russian forces may indeed be preparing for a new offensive operation—including the reconsolidation of force compositions along major axes of advance and the movement of heavy equipment to the frontlines.[8]

[...]

It remains extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces would be able to take Kyiv even if Russian forces again attack from Belarus again. Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022. Russia's conventional forces are badly degraded and lack the combat power that they had when Russia attempted (and failed) its full-throated effort to capture Kyiv in February 2022. Russian forces have been unable to secure their gains across Ukraine and have lost over 70,000 square km of occupied territory since abandoning Kyiv. Russian forces in Bakhmut currently advance no more than 100-200 meters a day after concentrating their main efforts there.[23] Russia has not established air superiority let alone air supremacy in Ukraine and has largely exhausted its precision-guided munitions arsenal. Ukrainian forces, for their part, have prepared significant defenses in northern Ukraine and are better prepared to defend now than they were in February 2022. The terrain near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is not conducive to maneuver warfare and possible invasion routes from Belarus to Kyiv run through defensible chokepoints in the Chernobyl exclusion zone that Ukrainian forces now have experience defending.[24]


 
KYIV, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Russia fired more than 70 missiles during Friday's morning rush hour in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, forcing emergency power cuts nationwide, Ukrainian officials said.

Two people were killed when an apartment block was hit in central Kryvyi Rih and another died in shelling in Kherson in the south, they said. Russian-installed officials in occupied eastern Ukraine said 11 people had died in Ukrainian shelling.


Kyiv warned late on Thursday that Moscow plans a new all-out offensive early next year, around a year after its Feb. 24 invasion, which has destroyed huge areas of Ukraine but brought little of it under Moscow's control.

Russia has rained missiles on Ukrainian energy infrastructure almost weekly since early October after a series of battlefield defeats, but Friday's attack appeared to have caused more damage than many others.

"What we already see is damage to about nine (power) generating facilities," Energy Minister German Galushchenko said, adding that investigations were continuing.

Russia flew warplanes near Ukraine to try to distract its air defences, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said.



... and from ISW:

These two military efforts are failing to coerce Ukraine into negotiating or offering preemptive concessions, and Ukraine has retained the battlefield initiative following its two successive counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts. Putin may therefore be setting conditions for a third, sequential military effort in the likely event that these two efforts fail to secure his objectives by preparing for a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the winter of 2023. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny suggested that such an offensive could take place as early as January, in the worst-case scenario, and March, in the best case.[6] Zaluzhny additionally observed that this new offensive could take the form of another mechanized attack against Kyiv from Belarusian territory.[7] As ISW has previously reported, there are a series of observed indicators that suggest that Russian forces may indeed be preparing for a new offensive operation—including the reconsolidation of force compositions along major axes of advance and the movement of heavy equipment to the frontlines.[8]

[...]

It remains extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces would be able to take Kyiv even if Russian forces again attack from Belarus again. Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022. Russia's conventional forces are badly degraded and lack the combat power that they had when Russia attempted (and failed) its full-throated effort to capture Kyiv in February 2022. Russian forces have been unable to secure their gains across Ukraine and have lost over 70,000 square km of occupied territory since abandoning Kyiv. Russian forces in Bakhmut currently advance no more than 100-200 meters a day after concentrating their main efforts there.[23] Russia has not established air superiority let alone air supremacy in Ukraine and has largely exhausted its precision-guided munitions arsenal. Ukrainian forces, for their part, have prepared significant defenses in northern Ukraine and are better prepared to defend now than they were in February 2022. The terrain near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is not conducive to maneuver warfare and possible invasion routes from Belarus to Kyiv run through defensible chokepoints in the Chernobyl exclusion zone that Ukrainian forces now have experience defending.[24]


General Staff just updated: 81% of incoming missiles were shot down today.
NASAMS and IRIS-T manufacturers will get more orders in 2023, I'm sure.
 
I hope Germany and/or Rheinmetall do everything they can to buy back Gepards from foreign operators (Brazil, Jordan?) to supply them for Ukraine to counter the endless missile/drone attacks on their energy systems. If Romania still operates Gepards they should ask Germany to deliver their ammo stock of swiss origin (as Nato aid), then 'loan' some or all of their Gepards to Ukraine.
BTW really strange to see everyone develops and uses Drones but no one has actually develop cost effective measures to shoot them out of the sky (other than to waste expensive AA missiles). Same for cruise missiles - couple of thousand bucks bring down a multi-million bucks rocket.
Flack is back! ;)

Even older 20x110 Hispano-Suiza (well, copies actually) seem to be effective in the antidrone role.


But being a WWII aircraft forum I bet that machine-gun armed piston-airplanes will be way more cost effective against those Iranian drones than chasing them with Mig-29 (afaik one Mig was shoot-down due to ingestion of the drone debris). Actually thinking about it I guess that even .50 cal would be overkill for those drones, better to have more bullets in the air than stronger ones.
What about a squadron of Hurricane Mk IIB? you can't go wrong with 12 guns firing 1150 rpm each :tearsofjoy:
 
Flack is back! ;)

Even older 20x110 Hispano-Suiza (well, copies actually) seem to be effective in the antidrone role.


But being a WWII aircraft forum I bet that machine-gun armed piston-airplanes will be way more cost effective against those Iranian drones than chasing them with Mig-29 (afaik one Mig was shoot-down due to ingestion of the drone debris). Actually thinking about it I guess that even .50 cal would be overkill for those drones, better to have more bullets in the air than stronger ones.
What about a squadron of Hurricane Mk IIB? you can't go wrong with 12 guns firing 1150 rpm each :tearsofjoy:


1917 has something to offer:


tumblr_o7e5b1EdXw1s57vgxo1_1280.jpg
 
somebody somewhere must have a stack of 40mm Bofors in their warehouses. During the Falklands one was credited with a Mirage.
Back in my day, quad 40s were popular lawn ornaments at naval base enlisted barracks everywhere. Something to polish and/or paint for extra duty. Take up a collection?
 

Might be time for a "Berlin Airlift" style approach to fly in solar panels and generators etc to Ukraine.
 

Might be time for a "Berlin Airlift" style approach to fly in solar panels and generators etc to Ukraine.

If we could protect them, sure. I think it'd be better to airlift SAM batteries first, otherwise, we're throwing targets into range.
 

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