"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)

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I just run the ignore function when people can't stay with the plot. Though at current I'm only ignoring GTX, but not because I don't value their insight when given, but only to avoid the barrage of screen-filling YouTube, Twitter and media dumps that clutter my feed with talking heads. When I have a spare moment I click the unignore button to see if their own thoughts on the Russo-Ukraine War have been posted. What would be great on this forum, which I've seen elsewhere, is a way to switch off YouTube and Twitter previews or thumbnails.

Back to Ukraine, this is annoying. Our government promises air defence but does not deliver. I find the Canadian government conflates committed with delivered military aid.

ottawacitizen.com

Canada promised to deliver a $400M air defence system to Ukraine a year ago. It still hasn't arrived.

The government said Jan. 10, 2023 that it would acquire the air defence system and related munitions for Ukraine at a cost of $406 million.
ottawacitizen.com ottawacitizen.com
 
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defence-blog.com

Raytheon awarded $9.6M for new ship-sinking missile production

The U.S. Department of Defense recently announced that Raytheon has secured a $9.6 million cost delivery order. The contract award from the U.S. Marine Corps Systems Command aims to acquire essential long lead items, crucial for supporting the low-rate initial production phase of the Navy Marine...
defence-blog.com defence-blog.com
 
SplitRz said:
Theres a lot to unpack here.

First line: 'it should be about freedom more than bleeding out Putin'

To a European, this statement defies logic.

In terms of annexing parts of sovereign democratic states (however flawed they may be) to re-create a Russian Empire, as is pretty much Putin's stated aim, how do you assess protecting 'freedom', when annexed populations are placed under the yoke of his authoritarian regime?

How meaningful is the freedom of the press under Putin?
How meaningful is democracy and elections under Putin, given he's imprisoned or assassinated most of his political opponents (those who aren't in self imposed exile).
How meaningful are numerous other civil rights and freedoms in Russia?
How do you assess the fairness and equality of the rule of law and the judiciary in Russia?

I'm trying VERY hard not to use foul language to emphasise this, but if the legacy of his behaviour and stated aims within Russia and across the rest of the FSU in Europe don't make it ABSOLUTELY OBVIOUS that Putin and freedom are mutually exclusive terms, then what the **** defines what this should be 'about'? What is it 'about', if it isn't to the greatest threat to freedom and stability in a generation??? Ask a Finn. Or an Estonian. Or a Latvian. Or a Georgian. Or a Pole. There's a long list.

Or ask a Brit like me - given I live a half an hour's drive from Salisbury, where Putin's state employed assassins who used a military chemical weapon *on the streets of a city of a NATO member* to try and kill two Russian exiles, and ended up killing an entirely innocent woman and severely poisoned and nearly killed an entirely innocent policeman trying to give first aid.

I think certain Americans would be less flippant about the direct relationship between 'Putinism' and freedom if such events were occurring on their doorstep. Though I have to say, 20th century history has sadly provided multiple examples of how American incomprehension (and frequent ignorance) of global culture, history and geopolitics which has subsequently and repeatedly bitten them in the backside. And its terrifying to hear isolationist opinions coming from the one nation that should have learned better than any other that we live in an indivisibly interconnected world - and one more inextricably linked than ever in the 21st century. Hauling up the drawbridge doesn't work.

Is America being 'played' when it comes to Ukraine and Taiwan? You're damn right it is. The Chinese are very very much aware that the result of the next US election is likely to determine the course of the entire future of global democracy, American foreign policy, and the fate of the Ukraine and potentially the rest of the smaller FSU democratic nations (as just a starter).

If The US allows its support to wilt, Ukraine will clearly stand no chance of regaining and holding its lost territory - or potentially to even survive as an independent state without concessions and at best an uneasy armistice on probably onerous and humiliating terms. If America abandons its foreign policy principals and exchanges them for appeasement and isolationism, we essentially forget the lessons of 1914 to 17 and 1939 to 1941 and invite a repeat. The current situation is analogous in some ways to the dual threat to American interests from Japan and Germany before 1941, and the idea that appeasing or ignoring one threat makes it go away and allows a nation to concentrate on another simply doesn't work.

Yes, there's a threat in both directions. Accept it and deal with it. Own it. Lead it. Kick the rest of the western world - especially Italy, Germany, Spain, Norway, The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Ireland etc. to follow the UKs lead in increasing military spending to AT LEAST 2% GDP, with a commitment to spend even more if things do not de-escalate and Russia shifts its policy. Authoritarians and 'strong men' don't respect vacillation or appeasement or see it as anything other than an expression and confession of either moral or material weakness. They respect countries that act decisively and with conviction AND with moral consistency.

Taiwan has wealth. Its economy is four times bigger than that of Ukraine, so it has far more ability to fund its own effective defence with less external help. Its also an island. Take it from a Brit, even though that presents its own issues, it makes an invasion and far greater challenge for any would-be aggressor. It too needs help of course, but the situation is as yet not at the point of war. The Chinese play a long game. They are looking for weakness and a lack of conviction from western allies. Which is why they have started to push upon that resolve. They are unlikely to act precipitously or take a gamble - after-all, wars are a waste of resources (as their more naïve neighbour is learning to his economic cost). I'm sure they are quite happy to see Putin (a fair-weather friend who is actually another regional rival to their interests, if ever that is forgotten) wreck himself on those rocks and take advantage of whatever international political or diplomatic flotsam comes their way. They too look to the next US election with interest and hope. What they clearly want is more division, more diplomatic self-interest and isolationism from the US and less military conviction - be it towards Taiwan or any other analogous example which indicates a collapse of moral resolve. That's what will most likely decide their next steps.

If America fails now, it'll witness nations crushed by both the white and black glove, and together those fists will simultaneously crush its figurehead role as the champion of freedom and democracy. The baton of influence will be handed to the new world Orwellian order of strong-men, gangster demagogues, autocracy, censorship, and overt propaganda through directly controlled state media and surveillance and police ready to enforce in a draconian manner.

Hitler WAS a real person. So was Stalin. Pol Pot. etc etc. History has provided examples of alternatives to a western democratic model of governance which I think most moral people wish had been 'bled out' BEFORE they achieved their apogee of influence.

What choices are people going to make? Its like a referendum on wisdom and morality in my view.
Click to expand...
SplitRz,

Excellent post! I'm only checking in as I've just excited a 5 week training program and fly tonight to Amsterdam.
To quote MacArthur, "I shall return".

Cheers,
Biff
 
Glider said:
An unexpected impact of the war on Russia itself is the weather. Russia's infrastructure was always unreliable but its this kind of thing which can make people turn

Source Metro

As Vladimir Putin is spending billions of pounds on his war in Ukraine, people across Moscow have been left freezing without heating or hot water. Temperatures in the capital plummeted to -30°C, and the old heating network is reportedly unable to withstand the weather. This has meant that more than 20,000 residents have been abandoned freezing in sub-zero temperatures recorded in their own homes for days.

This comes amid rumours of an incident at one of the largest ammunition plants in the town of Klimovsk, which some claim is connected with the problems. According to reports, Klimovsk 'is heated by one departmental boiler house of the local cartridge plant', which has broken down.
This has resulted in temperatures INSIDE the apartments reaching -10C and there were spontaneous protests in the town. A resident complained: 'The police arrived quickly to disrupt us. I wish they would bring back the heating as fast as they dispatched the cops [to disperse us].'
Click to expand...

I know I already commented on this, but I had to revisit after reading this news today:

"European natural gas prices extended losses to below €31 per megawatt-hour, after an 8.6% drop on Monday, driven by abundant gas supplies caused by the extended mild weather in the region, despite the ongoing cold snap. The mild conditions led to a significant reduction in gas consumption for heating, while energy-intensive companies scaled back production, resulting in lower overall demand. As a result, regional gas storage levels remain high, surpassing the typical levels for this time of year. Starting the season almost full at 90%, current stockpiles have only decreased to around 85%, allowing Europe to maintain a higher-than-expected level of gas reserves. If these current trends continue, Europe is set to enter spring with more than half of its underground gas storage capacity still available, compared to the 10-year average of just 35%.
"

To put that in context, gas prices in January 2024 are similar to Summer 2021.
 
BiffF15 said:
SplitRz,

Excellent post! I'm only checking in as I've just excited a 5 week training program and fly tonight to Amsterdam.
To quote MacArthur, "I shall return".

Cheers,
Biff
Click to expand...
Off to Olde Hamsterjam! Watch out for the clog wearing mice and those strange cigarettes!

Have a blast and tell all when you get back. :)
 
Another of Putins allies seems to have had an accident of some sort. What I find difficult to understand is that these are his allies, people who seem to have been doing a good job (from his perspective)

Zoya Konovalova, aged 48, known as the head of a propaganda channel linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin, was found dead in her home.
The circumstances surrounding her death have raised questions, given her prominent role in the media landscape connected to the Russian government. Konovalova has been a notable figure in Russian media, particularly in channels that are known to disseminate information favoring the Kremlin's viewpoints. Her involvement in these channels had made her a significant part of the state's media apparatus.
The discovery of her death in her residence has prompted an investigation, as officials seek to determine the cause. Given her high-profile position and the sensitive nature of her work, the incident has attracted considerable attention both within Russia and internationally.

This development comes amidst a complex backdrop of media control and propaganda within Russia, where the government heavily influences public information. Konovalova's role in this system had been crucial, and her sudden death adds a layer of intrigue and speculation about the internal workings of state-controlled media in Russia.
 
Is invading Ukraine and destroying their own economy the worst miscalculation in Russia's history? Others could be provoking war with Japan in 1904, or war with Germany in 1914, or the 1939 Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, or purging its officer corps just before Barbarossa in 1941? Any others? Had cooling heads in London not prevailed, Russia's attacking of British shipping in 1904 might have made the list.
 
Glider said:
Another of Putins allies seems to have had an accident of some sort. What I find difficult to understand is that these are his allies, people who seem to have been doing a good job (from his perspective)

Zoya Konovalova, aged 48, known as the head of a propaganda channel linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin, was found dead in her home.
The circumstances surrounding her death have raised questions, given her prominent role in the media landscape connected to the Russian government. Konovalova has been a notable figure in Russian media, particularly in channels that are known to disseminate information favoring the Kremlin's viewpoints. Her involvement in these channels had made her a significant part of the state's media apparatus.
The discovery of her death in her residence has prompted an investigation, as officials seek to determine the cause. Given her high-profile position and the sensitive nature of her work, the incident has attracted considerable attention both within Russia and internationally.

This development comes amidst a complex backdrop of media control and propaganda within Russia, where the government heavily influences public information. Konovalova's role in this system had been crucial, and her sudden death adds a layer of intrigue and speculation about the internal workings of state-controlled media in Russia.
Click to expand...

Are there inklings of her turning away from the party line, or was this a Ukrainian op, or was this an internal Russian thing? We seem to be reading tea leaves. At least that's how it feels to me.
 
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