NATO members have been upping their defense spending substantially since 2014 - thanks to a certain Mr Putin's actions in Crimea and the Obama Administration's carrot & stick approach to the European defense industry.
Between 2014 and 2023, there were only four NATO members which have reduced defense spending as a proportion of GDP: the US, the UK, Croatia and Turkey**
NATO figures on defense spending:
**Caveat here - Turkey's defense spending is ... funky. And very much a case of 'don't believe the headline figures'.
Nominally, Turkey spends 1.3% of GDP on defense. Down from 2.7% just five years ago.
But, Turkey has been battling double digit inflation since 2017, and the defense budget has been going through rapid cuts and then equally rapid increases. Turkish defense spending went up 37% in 2023, and is due to go up ~140% this year.
Then we need to consider exchange rates. The Turkish Lira has lost 96% of its value to the USD since 2008. So, while Turkish defense spending is down in nominal US dollar terms (which is how NATO counts things), in local spending terms the defense budgets are generally rising. Turkish defense spending is up about ~20% since 2014 when counting in Lira (so much so that the country has been called one of the most militarised states in Europe).
Add to this the PPP effect. On a things per dollar basis, Turkey effectively gets $3.30 to $3.50 worth of stuff for every $1 the US would spend. So, the ~$20 billion that Turkey is spending on defense is more like ~$66 to $70 billion once you equalise it out. Which puts Turkey somewhere around the UK and Germany in spending.
Then there is the matter of state investment/ownership of defense firms. Turkey has been investing
heavily in domestic arms production since the mid 2000s, and has been rewarded with the industry growing roughly twelvefold over the same time. Currently about 75% of the defense stuff Turkey buys is made locally.
But, the government has been bankrolling these efforts from both ends. Large amounts of direct state support/investment are given to Turkish defense manufacturers. And, this doesn't count as spending on "defense" (at least not for NATO purposes).
At the same time, the armed forces has majority ownership of several of the biggest defense firms, including Turkish Aerospace, Aselsan, BMC, FNSS, Roketsan and various ship builders. And it's scooping up the profits as well (which also don't count as spending on "defense").
Imagine a situation where the US Army owned 55% of BAE Systems, 49% of GLDS, 75% of Lockheed Martin, 51% of RTX and 59% of L3 Harris. And it just happens to be the one selecting which companies got which contracts. And, it also just happens to get a corresponding share of their profits as well - which it then get to respend as it wants (with only nominal oversight from the civilian government).
Brief explainer on Turkish security landscape:
Rethinking Civil-Military Relations in Turkey
Deep dive on Turkish defense industry:
Turkiye’s defence industry has undergone dramatic changes over the last 50 years and the country has become a significant defence exporter. In this report, as part of a joint project with the IISS, researchers from the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research explore this process and the...
www.iiss.org
(Apologies for rant. If I have to learn this stuff for work, if figure that I may as well share it)
