The here and now of my initial question is about the quality of the LW pilots stationed in the west in November and December 1943. The quality of allied aircrews is irrelevant.
I think Erich was right on, when he explained that the attrition the LW was going to experience had not happened at that date. Allied fighters could not get past the frontiers of Germany proper. That meant low time pilots still had a chance to gain experience while protected by more experienced pilots.
At this date, the LW squadrons were still something to attack with caution and woe to the allied pilot who underestimated their capabilities.
Anyone disagree with that?
Yes and no. As I posted at the beginning between September and December 1943 the Luftwaffe lost lost 1,169 fighter pilots or 56% of its strength. Over the year they lost 141% of strength,that's their entire fighter pilot establishment and virtually half again!
The attrition had certainly happened by late 1943. It started in 1939/40 but 1943 is the critical year. No organisation can endure losses at that rate and maintain its quality and efficiency and the Luftwaffe was further hampered by a hopelessly inadequate training program.
In 1944 German fighter pilot losses rocketed again from this already unsustainable level as the Allies began to impose air superiority. The work had been done in 1943. Now the allies simply swamped the Luftwaffe. In September 1943 the US 8th AF had an
effective combat strength of 274 fighters. By March 1944 this had risen to 720 and by D-Day 906. (From "Statistical Summary of 8th AF Operations,European Theatre")
Luftwaffe losses reflect this trend.
In 1940 JG 26 lost 51 pilots. In 1942 this had increased slightly to a loss for the year of 69. In 1943 the number is 149 and in 1944 it is 249. Total pilots lost by JG 26 for the entire war is 640 (From Golucke,I have another source which gives a total of 631,close enough for government work). These are losses to enemy action and do not include the roughly 130 pilots of JG 26 lost in accidents etc throughout the war.
Just prior to D-Day in May 1944 the Luftwaffe lost 25% of all its fighter pilots in one month,578 lost
We should not under estimate the impact of other factors. The increasing range of allied,particularly USAAF,fighters is one important consideration.
Was the Luftwaffe something to be treated with caution and respect in late 1943? Absolutely yes,I agree with you there. It was however teetering on the brink of defeat.
Cheers
Steve