Black Widow vs Amerikabomber

[Shortround6]

The reliability of a WW II nuke after a couple of weeks submerged in salt water would be on the dubious side.

The American nukes required someone to access the bombs in Fight and this requirement lasted for several years after the war, affecting the initial design of the A3 Skywarrior:

This is sort of an all or nothing mission, not much chance of a repeat or redo if things foul up.

 

[Poor Old Spike]

..As for 'sneaking up on the USA' in ancient sub tech undetected?
I don't think so.

The entire Jap fleet sneaked up on Pearl Harbor completely undetected, so a single sub underwater would find it a piece o' cake..
America's Pacific and Atlantic coastlines are thousands of miles long and she just doesn't have enough anti-sub ships, planes and helos to constantly police it all.

 

[Gixxerman]

The entire Jap fleet sneaked up on Pearl Harbor completely undetected, so a single sub underwater would find it a piece o' cake..
America's Pacific and Atlantic coastlines are thousands of miles long and she just doesn't have enough anti-sub ships, planes and helos to constantly police it all.

Last I heard there is a screen of underwater listening devices of incredible sensitivity, this in addition to the regular US sub patrols - which themselves can hear a whale cough on the other side of the globe.
Things have changed massively since 1941.

Those Iranian subs are mildly warmed over 50's Russian tech, seriously, they aren't going to surprise anyone, they'll hear them cast off in Iran those things are so noisy (yes I jest but even so).....and I seriously doubt they have the range to even get to the USA never mind with a very heavy load (everybody's early nuclear weapons are huge) and nevermind returning.
I just don't see it as in any way credible outside of the standard ridiculous Fox news 'scarey tall tale' clip.

 

[Poor Old Spike]

Last I heard there is a screen of underwater listening devices of incredible sensitivity, this in addition to the regular US sub patrols - which themselves can hear a whale cough on the other side of the globe....

The huge amount of engine noise generated by merchant vessels on the North Atlantic shipping route would largely mask the sound of an enemy sub, especially if it was cruising submerged directly underneath a merchantman.
And speaking of merchantmen, an enemy could load a nuke bomb aboard one in its home port and sail right into NY harbour and detonate it.

 

[Poor Old Spike]

.....I do not hold with the idea that the Iranian leadership are all a bunch of religious nutters just itching to suicide their nation....which would be the only plausible outcome of them attacking anyone with a nuclear weapon)

But mad tyrants don't care about the consequences, (Hitler/Saddam/ Mussolini/ Jap High Command/ Gaddafi/ North Korea/ Ahmedinejad etc)

 

[Jenisch]

I'm skeptical that Germany, supposing the most realistic scenario were the Soviets are defeat in 1941, would obtain the atomic bomb first than the US. One can argue "ah, but Germany have much more resources to apply to the bomb". While perhaps this could be true, so does to the US, and the US did have more resources than Germany. The UK was a fortress. Not only had Fighter Command more than DOUBLED in sized by the end of 1941 - those squadrons were now 90-95% Spitfire-equiped. There was now also a large number of re-formed and re-equiped "Army cooperation" squadrons in the UK... flying 1940-41 fighters converted to light fighter-bombers. The air defence of the UK was some 2-3 times stronger by the end of 1941... and the conversion to VHF radio from August 1940 on meant Fighter Command could control that vast jump in numbers available.

If the Germans tried a renewed bombing campaign against Britain in 1942, just the RAF would already be a great obstacle to them, not to mention the USAAF. Africa and the Middle East were not critical to the British survival, and even so I'm not certain that the Germans would overrun such places as easily as popularily said.

What would be the American reaction to all this situation? Perhaps the Americans would be in more troube depending of the situation of the Kwantung Army, if the Soviet collapse included the Red Army in the Far East. Even so, it would not be anything critical to the American capability to smash Japan's Navy. I think the war would develop with the Allies realizing it would not be possible to land any troops in Europe for several years, and so they would embark in an all-out aerial and naval war against Germany. I think the Allies would suffer much heavier casualities than historically, but this was a fight they did have a decent chance of win, even if Nazi Germany survived by a conditional defeat.

To conclude: as I already wrote, I think the Americans would put more effort in the Manhattan Project if necessary, and perhaps to the B-36 (the British situation would be much more uncertain, so US defense takes priority). Given all the investments in the Manhattan Project, and perhaps even more investments in this scenario, it just doesn't seems right that Germany would end up with a nuclear bomb first than the US.

 

[Gixxerman]

But mad tyrants don't care about the consequences, (Hitler/Saddam/ Mussolini/ Jap High Command/ Gaddafi/ North Korea/ Ahmedinejad etc)

But that is the point.
Are they mad?

Hitler for instance could have unleashed the stocks of nerve gas the Nazi war machine had stockpiles of but did not, even at the end when he was doing his 'the German people have proved themselves the weaker deserve to perish' nonsense.
He his Gov had been informed long ago that the British would drench Germany from end to end in toxic gas if he did.
A rational decision and not exactly the madman we are led to believe.

Gaddafi similarly turned his armed forces on 'his own people' in a civil war (to a point, Libya is rife with tribal factions) but did not attempt to exterminate those opposed to him using WMD.

Ahmadinejad in Iran is an interesting case, a rabble-rouser of course but serious?
I doubt it....and besides he has not the means to carry out a nuclear attack on Israel without also seeing his country destroyed.
Neither has he the authority.
He is not the ultimate ruler in Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei is and he has repeatedly publicly stated that nuclear weapons (because they are so indiscriminate kill so massively) are forbidden under Islamic law.
There is one of those 'fatwa's' against them in Iran.
I have seen nothing from him to indicate that he is a madman bent on suiciding his nation.

I wonder if this will prove to be another case of 'Iraqi WMDs' circa 2002/3.
We keep insisting they are trying to make them but no inspector has ever said there is a weapons program.

Tub-thumping grandiose claims were not unknown during the cold war either, but we survived that too.
Khrushchev's boasting barely veiled threats come to mind - and yet looking back on it overall now we can see he was actually in many cases quite restrained opened up debate in the Soviet Union regarding the behaviour of Stalin the Communist party; ultimately he sowed the seeds which saw it all vanish through Gorbachev co.

 

[Matt308]

Poor Old Spike, I can't figure if you are yanking our chain or...

Really?

 

[Poor Old Spike]

Poor Old Spike, I can't figure if you are yanking our chain or...
Really?

I hope I've not upset anybody (sniffle) I'm 64 years old and was lucky enough to be brought up in the 50's and 60's when everything was seen in clear-cut black and white..

PS- Check this, On August 10-11, 1938, Focke-Wulf 200 Condor D-ACON 'Brandenburg' (below) made a record-breaking nonstop flight across the Atlantic from Berlin to Floyd Bennett field in Brooklyn, New York.
The 4,075 miles flight (6,437 km) took 24 hours and 57 minutes against strong headwinds, at an average speed of 164 MPH (263 km/h). The return flight to Germany took 19 hours and 47 minutes at an average speed of 205 MPH (330 km/h) on August 13, 1938.
Interestingly, it proves the Germans had the potential to bomb New York in WW2 for propaganda, but because the Condor wouldn't have had enough fuel to get back to Europe it'd have had to ditch at a pre-arranged spot partway back across the Atlantic for the crew to be picked up by a U-Boat.

 

[Poor Old Spike]

Poor Old Spike quote- "But mad tyrants don't care about the consequences, (Hitler/Saddam/ Mussolini/ Jap High Command/ Gaddafi/ North Korea/ Ahmedinejad etc)"

But that is the point. Are they mad?..

I forgot to add Stalin, he was as cuckoo as the rest.
As for Saddam, I'm not surprised the weapons inspectors didn't find any WMD's, a few flasks of lethal germs would have wiped out whole cities and my guess is that he'd hid them under his bed but the inspectors forgot to look there

 

[tyrodtom]

While in theory it make take very small amounts of germ agents to kill one person, you still have to use vast amounts over large areas to kill a lot of people. The germ agents can't seek out victims.

 

[GregP]

Hi De Adler,

Why would anyone try to do that?

I certainly wouldn't but there are Nazi supremisist groups around that have dreams of doing so. I fervently hope they never get much support, but you never know, do you? Wouldn't it be easier if everyone wanted to get along? Alas, I think they don't and never will ... but I hope for it. People can't even agree if Flouride in the drinking water helps or hurts ...

So much wasted hatred when it really gets us all nowhere ... why not cooperate and benefit everyone?

 

[krieghund]

Well it is open to question as to whether Iran even has an advanced nuclear weapons program capable of producing a bomb in the near future (various - non Israeli - reports talk about them being at least 5yrs away) .....but it's a massive leap from the crude few bombs North Korea Iran might have to start talking about miniaturised suitcase bombs.
That takes many more years after the initial break-throughs.

As for 'sneaking up on the USA' in ancient sub tech undetected?
I don't think so.


(I do not hold with the idea that the Iranian leadership are all a bunch of religious nutters just itching to suicide their nation....which would be the only plausible outcome of them attacking anyone with a nuclear weapon)

OMG WHAT! Explain Fordor, fortunately the word got out before the government could secure the site. Almost two dozen N. Korean scientists (or whatever) perished with an unknown number. How about the Iranian scientists at the recent N. Korean nuke test.....was it a test of the Iranian nuke? Mainstream media is avoiding that like the plague.

As for the delivery system, if one researches, one will discover that the Iranians have been test launching missiles from container ships CONTAINER SHIPS! Their test missile launches only launched to an altitude of about 150 miles, which is the altitude the nuke detonates and the EMP effect takes your electrical grid back to the 1800's. Of course I have confidence that our intel services can spot a Iranian container ship in time. But how about they ship a container to the P.I. then on to a few other Asian destinations then finally to Malaysia where on an unsuspecting ship moves by Africa and an IR SpecOps team takes over and sails off the east coast (or fill in the blank) erects and launches...you find out about it when you are looking for candles........

Or not.........maybe I'm watching too many Bond movies


Oh yeah another thought, didn't Obama convince everyone to cancel their missile defense systems?

 

[Matt308]

I wonder if this will prove to be another case of 'Iraqi WMDs' circa 2002/3.
We keep insisting they are trying to make them but no inspector has ever said there is a weapons program

Where have you been?

New York Times March 7, 2013

"In February 2010, the United Nations' nuclear inspectors declared for the first time that they had extensive evidence of "past or current undisclosed activities" by Iran's military to develop a nuclear warhead, an unusually strongly worded conclusion likely to accelerate Iran's confrontation with the United States and other Western countries.

The report, the first under the new director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, also concluded that the nation's weapons-related activity apparently continued "beyond 2004."

In November 2011, the International Atomic Energy Agency released a trove of evidence that they said makes a "credible" case that "Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device" at Parchin and that the project may still be under way.

The report, the harshest judgment that United Nations weapons inspectors had ever issued in their decade-long struggle to pierce the secrecy surrounding the Iranian program, rekindled a debate among the Western allies and Israel about whether increased diplomatic pressure, sanctions, sabotage or military action could stop Iran's program.
"

 

[Jenisch]

Iran cannot nuke the US simply by offensive wish, it would mean it's destruction. However, it would be much more difficult to the US intervene militarily in a nuclear Iran, which could treat Europe and the US in it's defense. Also, Iran could give nukes to terrorists.

 

[gjs238]

WIKI- "On June 12, 1942, the U-boat U-202 landed Dasch's team with explosives and plans at East Hampton, Long Island, New York.Their mission was to destroy power plants at Niagara Falls and three Aluminum Company of America factories in Illinois, Tennessee and New York.

OMG, that team was doomed from the start. There's no way they were going to get from Long Island, through NYC, to any of those places before the War ended.

 

[gjs238]

A big nuke could be held in place by clamps on the subs hull and simply released by pulling a lever while still submerged.

That's right. Go to any auto parts store and buy one of them manual choke cables. That'll do just fine.

 

[stona]

For those that move in Physics circles may find this interesting...........

Pretty thoroughly discredited since. Karlsch for example has had to concede that there is not a shred of evidence to support an unkown reactor capable of producing fissile material and more importantly there is no evidence whatsoever that any kind of nuclear device was ever tested in Thuringia. He managed to sell a lot of books and make a lot of money with his sensationalist claims. As an ex chemist I know that the evidence should still be there and it is not. "Hitlers Bombe" is frankly a crock of you know what,reminiscent of other conspiracy theory books which sell well until properly analysed.......missile hitting the Pentagon anyone?

Most often trumpeted is that sketch of a potential bomb (not a design blue print) which comes from an undated document which even the article concedes is certainly post war when many German scientists had been made aware of the mechanism of the US bombs. Many were already onboard the US program.

Postulating any type of nuclear weapon is the easy bit. Any high school physicist or chemist can tell you how they work in theory. There are probably no more than a few dozen men and women in the world today who could realistically stand a chance of producing a working weapon with the correct backing. These weapons have been around for nearly 70 years now!

Obtaining the neccessary fissile material is extremely difficult and the Germans,in 1945,had no way of doing this in anything but laboratory quantities,even that is debateable.

There are many other seemingly simple but actually very difficult problems to overcome. For example,a major stumbling block for the Manhattan project's Plutonium bomb was getting that so easily drawn "chemical explosive" in diagram "a" to create an explosion that would evenly increase the density of the Plutonium to a critical mass.

As I said a sketch is not a design.

I could go on,but there are other threads on this.

Cheers

Steve

 

[Gixxerman]

OMG WHAT! Explain Fordor, fortunately the word got out before the government could secure the site. Almost two dozen N. Korean scientists (or whatever) perished with an unknown number. How about the Iranian scientists at the recent N. Korean nuke test.....was it a test of the Iranian nuke? Mainstream media is avoiding that like the plague.

Or could it be that the reports are largely from Israeli sources with obvious agendas at work?

....and is it really any wonder the Iranians are putting everything they can underground under mountains right now?
It's hardly a climate of reducing tensions, and hasn't been for years.
Yes some of that is due to Iranian involvement in Palestinian politics but not all of it.

(it's also worth pointing out that the Iranians are Persians, not Arabs.....and I've yet to hear anyone explain why Persia would commit suicide for the Arabs)

As for the delivery system, if one researches, one will discover that the Iranians have been test launching missiles from container ships CONTAINER SHIPS! Their test missile launches only launched to an altitude of about 150 miles, which is the altitude the nuke detonates and the EMP effect takes your electrical grid back to the 1800's.

Or not.........maybe I'm watching too many Bond movies

I don't think it's as easy straight-forward as you suggest, perhaps too Bondish?

Oh yeah another thought, didn't Obama convince everyone to cancel their missile defense systems?

No.
The USA (and a couple of others) have various anti missile programs.

Where have you been?

New York Times March 7, 2013

"In February 2010, the United Nations' nuclear inspectors declared for the first time that they had extensive evidence of "past or current undisclosed activities" by Iran's military to develop a nuclear warhead, an unusually strongly worded conclusion likely to accelerate Iran's confrontation with the United States and other Western countries.

That "past or current" is pretty vague, no?
I have only ever seen references to research capable of being put to weapons use....but that again is so vague given the cross-over between civil military nuclear use (as was the case when France the UK developed nuclear weaponry in Europe).

The report, the first under the new director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, also concluded that the nation's weapons-related activity apparently continued "beyond 2004."

Again, there have periodically been claims regarding 'evidence' with none actually produced.
Centrifuges - even expanded numbers of them - and so on are not a bomb and neither does it prove enriched uranium to the level required (way above the 20% or so they have been reported to enriching to) for a bomb.
Which is 85% - 90% last I read up on it.

In November 2011, the International Atomic Energy Agency released a trove of evidence that they said makes a "credible" case that "Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device" at Parchin and that the project may still be under way.

Again when you look at what they released it was hardly convincing.
A diagram they admit was flawed probably leaked to the Iranians to delay any work they were doing.
I'm sorry but that is not proof of anything to me.

It is true that they do do nuclear research in Iran....at the research reactor, provided by the United States in 1967, located at the Tehran Nuclear Research Centre. The research reactor produces medical isotopes there.

I hear a lot about 'proof' but never actually see anything that is not highly questionable, either because of its source or because when you look further into what has supposedly been produced it amounts to little or nothing.

Like I said, Iraq 2002/3 all over again?
Various planted stories, no corroboration, single sources etc

Given the tensions in the ME - not to mention what happened next door in Iraq - I wouldn't be surprised if Iran DID try to acquire nuclear weapons, deterrence works, right?
I 'm all for non-proliferation but with the politics of the ME I can see no reason why we should all assume the worst.
A dose of equality deterrence there might not do a lot of good.

The crazy thing is change is on the way in Iran, the last thing needed is a new ME war which would only serve to shore-up defend the existing regime.
Iran would also be a very different proposition to Iraq, any war would be so much more costly although I have no doubt they would lose, ultimately.

Sorry this is politics, way o/t and hardly suitable for our site or these boards.
I'll leave it at that.
Interesting discussion, as usual, tho

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

What does Iran, Iraq and WMD's today have to do with the Amerikabomber, Blackwidow or WW2?

Stay on topic.