Claims about overclaiming

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Just Schmidt

Senior Airman
351
464
Jul 19, 2010
Tromsø
I've on several occasions thought about making this post reading other threads, but do it in its own thread, in case it should lead to responses.

Usually while discussing relative merits of different aircraft, so-called 'confirmed' claims are brought into the discussion. I will not address the question about to which degrees claims, in as far they can be known with absolute certainty, can be used to compare relative merits, at least not as the only indicator. What I want to challenge is the assumption that, while everybody overclaimed (which there seem to be near consensus about), we can assume everybody overclaimed by the same factor, irrespective of country, unit or theatre etc. I should point out that I am NOT claiming that different countries, by and large, was worse overclaimers, only that differences demonstrably did occasionally occur.

One example (and i don't own the book where i read it, or remeber which one it was, anyway this should be pretty uncontroversial), German night fighters in 43-44 seemed to be claiming with impressive presission. The nature of the fighting makes this a rather unsurprizing fact. Much combat was stalking of one fighter after one bomber at a time. ranges were close, and because of the dark a burning aircraft was visible till it hit the ground. Only in extreme cases would two fighters shoot at the same bomber, and in confirming the claims of the night it was possible, most of the combat occurring over German held territory, to count the wrecks on the ground the following day. Compared to confused dogfighting over enemy territory the contrast should be clear.

In Bloody Shambles it is apparant that two different Japanese army fighter units fighting in the same theatre differed considerably as to the extent they were overclaiming. It is even quite clear that some pilots showed considerably more 'enthusiasm' than others.

Another famous and generally recognized example is the USA's day offensive over Germany, where maybe hundreds of defensive gunners were blazing away at the same fighter. If it happened to catch fire, all of them was likely to assume that his bullets were the decisive ones. The tendency of the Fw 190 to spew out black smoke from its engine under certain circumstances should in this context (and in dogfights) imply that more of these were overclaimed than Bf 109's. Again only from memory, I think the phenomenon was common to several radial engines.

This is not intended to be an exhaustive list, but examples covering a pretty wide range of circumstances, only some examples to disprove that the situation always was uniform. I do claim (pun intended) that wherever we decide to measure results we have to consider the theatre, the tactical circumstances in the widest sense and even the persons and types involved. Possibly even if it was early or late in their careers. Quite often lack of relevant information will then lead to the conclusion that we cannot in that particular instant be reasonably sure.

It is of course depressing to limit the avenues through which we can assess the relative merits of different aircraft, but to apply to all cases an average of , say, 1:2 or 1:3 is in my opinion methodologically unsound. And in the cases where we CAN be reasonably certain simply lazy.
 
I've got these as Luftwaffe "claims"

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.....and for some reason, MiG-17 Pilot Notes
 
Many authors in recent years have done extensive research to compare claims vs known reported losses. From Christopher Shores to Dan Ford to Michael Clairingbould and others. Even these are subject to the fact that the official reports were often inaccurate, incomplete or destroyed. So in the end we really can't ever know with exact certainty the true extent of overclaiming.
Here is an example. The daily report of COMAIRSOPAC for 2 Feb 1943 mentions a 30 minute engagement between a PBY and a Japanese flying boat. It also references a B-26 damaged in combat with another flying boat. The B-26 in question reported making two passes at a Mavis north of Guadalcanal before breaking off after sustaining wing damage. Japanese reports show nothing on the 2nd, but report a 30 minute engagement with a PBY on the 1st, and the loss of a Mavis to a "large aircraft" which attacked twice on the 3rd.
 
It is of course depressing to limit the avenues through which we can assess the relative merits of different aircraft, but to apply to all cases an average of , say, 1:2 or 1:3 is in my opinion methodologically unsound. And in the cases where we CAN be reasonably certain simply lazy.

I think that the cases where we can be reasonably certain are also relatively few.
 
One of the very frustrating things about claims and overclaiming is the definitions of the various claims. Suppose YOU are fighter pilot in WWII, above the clouds and in a fight. You shoot at an enemy plane, it catches fire and goes down below the cloud deck in flames and on gun camera. You stay high to keep in contact with your unit.

You claim it as a kill.

In reality, it goes down through the cloud gaining speed, blows out the fire, and the pilot, wounded or not, lands the plane in a field and it gets recovered, or parts of it get recovered. Post-war, they do not count that as a combat loss due to the recovery. The pilot may or may not be a casualty.

Yet, you shot it down in flames from a combat sortie.

In my book, it SHOULD be a kill because you shot it out of the fight you were in. I don't care if it was recovered to fight again later (to me, that is just another sortie, not another production aircraft), it got shot out of battle. But some people feel that really isn't a kill. And they are quite adamant about their beliefs that it should not have been a kill. Yet, there is no way the victor's authority could know it was actually recovered until post-war, right when people are loathe to spend money investigating the facts about actions of combat pilots. Enough money has already been spent on the war.

It falls to interested people many years post-war, who weren't there and don't really KNOW what they are looking at some of the time because it may be incompletely or even inaccurately depicted in reports, if there is even an existing report.

That is only ONE scenario. There are MANY others where the fighter pilot victory claim surely looks like a valid victory at the time, but later armchair statisticians disagree.
 
I believe the Japanese were one day off from the Americans. They attacked Pearl Harbor on Dec 8th.
All Japanese records use the date in Tokyo?

researchers have to keep this in mind?
The simultaneous raids on places like Shanghai Hong Kong and Malaysia are also recorded as being on the 8th.
 
From a one on one combat where a plane explodes and the result is obvious you go to massive engagements with hundreds of planes and eyes, the more people involved the more confused it gets. In the Battle of Britain all squadrons overclaimed but the top claimers were those in the big wing.
 
More opportunity usually means more enemy contact. That can just as easily lead to death as to glory, but more opportunity can also mean more chances for a victory. I'd expect the highest claimers to be in the people who contacted the enemy more often, along with the highest loss of rookies due simply to more contact.
 
Most of the PDFs are not downloadable any more. I keep getting this...

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I think all of the "Word" versions are working though. If you're like me and don't have "Word", all is not lost. Download all the files and "unzip" them in a folder. Go to this site...Online Converter...

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1578110644266.png

I spell check and spell check and then spell check some more and yet still miss one. "covert" should be "convert"
 
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