Could the IJN have launched a "Third wave" at Pearl Harbour?

I must admit that I don't think the losses would automatically have been large.
There was no need for any more torpedo bombers or for low level straffing. By sticking to bombing there was little for the US to defend themselves with. The fighters were almost completely out of the fight, Heavy AA was almost non existant and in 1941 not that efficient, leaving you with Heavy Machine Guns which are of very limited use (if any) against level bombers.

A better use of the IJN aircraft I would suggest, would be to throw everything into a search for the Carriers.

They would be ready for you certainly but would have been heavily outnumbered. I don't know how many aircraft the carriers were carrying at that moment but its unlikely to have been the full war compliment. Also its almost certain that wherever the carriers were they were almost certain to head back to Pearl after the attack and would be coming to you.

freebird said:

Adler I prefaced the question with "if they had located the carriers", (either in Pearl or known to be in San Diego). I agree with you that the fact they didn't find them historically was a huge part of Nagumo's decision. They made a big mistake by not having a way for their spies to get the message to Nagumo, and time the strike accordingly.

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Ooops my bad. I somehow missed that.

If they had located the Carriers I believe they could have and should have attacked again.

I do believe they would have taken heavier losses however. Reasons:

a. The base is on alert, there is no more surprise factor.

b. The radar stations in Hawaii would have been more alert.

As I said. I believe in that case they could have pulled off a 3rd wave but it would have sustained heavier losses.

If they would have hammered the fuel reserves, sub pens and repair facilities,
I dont think we would have been ready for the battle of Coral Sea. Australia would have been cut off and the Solomons would have been much tougher to take back.

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Glider, dont under estimate the AA that the US could have thrown up at the Japanese. Remember that many ships were untouched and could throw up a good barage. The IJN level bombers would be flying at medium altitude, straight and level and the planes vulnerable to damage. Dont forget that slight damage to these planes can be fatal damage when trying to return to a carrier.

As for the US fighters. Consider that the third wave would need three or more hours to organize from the moment the decision is made to attack and when they make their attack runs. The US could easily get a few dozen fighters in the air within that time frame and inflict damage or disrupt the Japanese formations. Enough to stop them? No. Draw blood? Yes!

And again, the question is if they had enough bombers (dive and level) to do lasting damage to the port. The answer is no.

Its only one view but the HAA on the ships would have been very limited. Ships in harbour are surrounded by cranes, tall buildings ect. The HMG's lack the range to deal with planes at medium height.
Fighters would have been a threat but the IJN should have been ready for them. Its a risk but one that would have been worth taking.

Re the damage that the IJN could have inflicted, I do agree that they couldn't have achieved what they wanted but they should have done what they could.

The ships in the harbor would have had mostly unrestricted arcs of fire.

Look at a map of the harbor where the ships were moored and compare it to where the shipyard facilities are.

As for fighters..... who knows. remember that the Enterprise airgroup arrived at Pearl in the waning moments of the battle. Imagine what a couple dozen Wildcats could do for defense!

freebird said:

Would the japanese have been successful launching a "Third wave"?

If the Japanese had found the US Carriers at Pearl Harbour, should they have risked a third wave?

If I have the data correct, the first wave landed back on the carriers at 10 am, the second wave at 12 noon. The Japanese spent another hour or two searching for the US Carriers, at which point it was decided by Nagumo that the risks of a third wave were too great.

If the US Pacific carriers were all accounted for (either sunk at Pearl or seen at anchor in San Diego), the Japanese could have re-armed the first wave aircraft for another attack and launched right away without losing time searching for the Carriers.

The third wave as advocated by Genda would have targeted the fuel tanks, repair shops, sub base and the cruisers destroyers at Pearl {5 out of 8 cruisers 26 of 29 destryers were undamaged following the second wave}

What would have been the result?

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First, the IJN could have launched a thrid strike.

Second, If the carriers were in Pearl Harbor and had not damaged the Carriers on first two, they would have, in my opinion believed the risk was worth the postential to take out the carriers.

Last, given the two scenarios above - the attack would have completely focused on the carriers. Only if the carriers had been destroyed and they had assets in the air with bombs, would they have extended to attack POL and or Sub base as targets of opportunity rather than prime directive.

Remember, the Carriers were first priority of first strike and the second strike was more capital ships and mop up of Carriers and only with a. and b. were they going to launch the planned third strike.

Absent known location of Carriers you can imagine the agony thinking about 'going for broke' and putting escort fighters on the 3rd wave - or sending it in alone and risk extremely heavy losses to remaining US airpower but not risk zero CAP to an unexpected attack from the missing carriers?

IMO - Once they determined that the US Carriers were not at Pearl, I think there was zero chance they commit to third strike?

One thing I've often wondered ...The Japanese really wanted the Carriers...At what point did the carriers leave PH...And how did the Japanese "not" know that the Carriers were gone ...I know they were keeping an eye on PH ... Strange...One peace of the puzzle I've never herd an answer too....

Attacking PH was to knock US out the war. The timing was part of the big Jap push against the Dutch and British in se asia. So they were already commited and so they were going to attack carriers or no carriers.

I agree that they could have totally destroyed everything at PH but it wouldn't have changed the outcome of the war. Just timing.

They were right to quit while winning. If the carriers had been there then that would have been the prize.

syscom3 said:

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As for fighters..... who knows. remember that the Enterprise airgroup arrived at Pearl in the waning moments of the battle. Imagine what a couple dozen Wildcats could do for defense!

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Your right, I had forgotten about the Enterprise airgroup. The Zero's and WIldcats would probably have given as good as they got and the losses heavier than I was thinking.

Who knows, it might have even played into the IJN hands. Had they suffered 'normal' losses from the start, they may have ramped up their training program earlier rather than later. Its one of those unknown 'what if' scenario's

The Basket said:

Attacking PH was to knock US out the war. The timing was part of the big Jap push against the Dutch and British in se asia. So they were already commited and so they were going to attack carriers or no carriers.

I agree that they could have totally destroyed everything at PH but it wouldn't have changed the outcome of the war. Just timing.

They were right to quit while winning. If the carriers had been there then that would have been the prize.

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I would tend to disagree that the IJN 'could have destroyed everything'. Contrast the tonnage and the number of facilities that were hit at Pearl against the tonnage and sorties against fewer targets at Rabaul or Truk - in neither case was the target destruction complete or nearly complete - over a two year span of attacks.

The quantity and sizes of the japanes bombs were adequate to breach 6-10" of steel but no where near enough to accomplish more than a few months of repairable damage or loss against the heavy land/portside assets.

I agree that a third strike may have done serious damage to some subs at dock, to the POL in storage and sink some more ships... but at the end of the day probably not enough to slow the build up to Coral Sea.. might have influenced build up from Atlantic, however.

Runways are easily repairable, dock facilities need direct hits with really big bombs to do irreparable damage, ditto for dry docks and machine shops.

Reference the relative ease Germany had in bringing refineries and Ball bearing plants back into some production, quickly - and why they had to be bomber repeadtedly to take them out.

I suspect, except for missing carriers, that the key objectives were met by IJN. I also suspect if they thought the subs and POL were higher value they would have been hit second strike (first goes after Pearl and airfields).

We were hit badly enough that resisting in Java and Phillipines was not a serious option...

From what I've read, PH was either a knockout blow to keep US out of the war or to keep the US fleet from interfering from the SE Asian invasions.

My point was that PH could not in any way shape or form won the war for the Japs in one day...regardless of any damage they caused.

The Japs would have to march into the White House to win the war...which is why PH was just a plain dumb idea.

But then again the Japs would have gone to war with the US over the Philipines so yeah...the Japs got in the first shot.

The IJN knew the carriers were not in PH as the Japanese embassy sent that message in diplomatic code a day or so before the attack. Since we had broken that code, Washington deciphered that message. They did not notify Admiral Kimmel or Gen Short. They also told Tokyo that the BBs were not deploying torpedo nets. One would think that that information would be useful to Kimmel.

renrich said:

The IJN knew the carriers were not in PH as the Japanese embassy sent that message in diplomatic code a day or so before the attack. Since we had broken that code, Washington deciphered that message. They did not notify Admiral Kimmel or Gen Short. They also told Tokyo that the BBs were not deploying torpedo nets. One would think that that information would be useful to Kimmel.

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I've wondered if Kimmel was picked as a scapegoat to protect some others higher up the food chain...
I have always thought that the Army shouldn't have expected the Navy to provide ANY defence for Pearl, as there should be enough aircraft, AA army units to defend the base even if ALL the ships were away.

The Basket said:

From what I've read, PH was either a knockout blow to keep US out of the war or to keep the US fleet from interfering from the SE Asian invasions.

The Japs would have to march into the White House to win the war...which is why PH was just a plain dumb idea.

But then again the Japs would have gone to war with the US over the Philipines so yeah...the Japs got in the first shot.

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Basket, Pearl was just the start. And the Japanese did not have to "take the White House", only to make the re-conquest of east Asia so costly that the US would decline to do it. {as they were reluctant for an invasion of the Japanese islands in 1945.} They would have to strangle the Allied shipping, that would be #1 priority.

syscom3 said:

The war in the pacific would have ended exactly on time due to the US receiving the atomic bomb in 1945.

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It might be possible for Germany {if not pulverized in '44-'45} would be able to develop a bomb to counter the US/UK's Manhattan project. It's not clear either way that IF Germany was not desperatly defending its territory from mid-1943 onwards, that they might have been able to develop an A-bomb as well.

Freebird, I think you are exactly right that the army should have been responsible for defense of PH. Your point about who defends if the fleet is out is excellent. If a scapegoat was needed General Short should have had more culpability but it was disgraceful the way Kimmel and also Short were treated. There was blame to be allocated for many people but the plain truth was that the US was unprepared for a surprise attack at every level. I need to check my reference but I believe that Admiral Richardson who was CINCPAC before Kimmel was replaced by Kimmel because he kept asserting that the Pacific Fleet was a sitting duck at PH and needed to be moved back to the West Coast.

freebird said:

Would the japanese have been successful launching a "Third wave"?

If the Japanese had found the US Carriers at Pearl Harbour, should they have risked a third wave?

If I have the data correct, the first wave landed back on the carriers at 10 am, the second wave at 12 noon. The Japanese spent another hour or two searching for the US Carriers, at which point it was decided by Nagumo that the risks of a third wave were too great.

If the US Pacific carriers were all accounted for (either sunk at Pearl or seen at anchor in San Diego), the Japanese could have re-armed the first wave aircraft for another attack and launched right away without losing time searching for the Carriers.

The third wave as advocated by Genda would have targeted the fuel tanks, repair shops, sub base and the cruisers destroyers at Pearl {5 out of 8 cruisers 26 of 29 destryers were undamaged following the second wave}

What would have been the result?

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Would they have been successful? to some degree maybe but probably not, first the element of surprise was lost, the remaining American aircraft and AA would have exacted a reasonable toll on the incoming Japanese aircraft.The prize for a third attack would need to be a big one. IF the carriers were not there and subsequently discovered, then it probably would be game on, the Japanese figuring that they had the upper hand in Carriers and aircraft.

If the Carriers were at Pearl at the time of the attack they would have been heavily targeted in the first place, and most likely sunk, they would have been sitting ducks! A third wave would not have been necessary figuring that they had eliminated the primary objectives, Carriers and other Capital ships.

Now, all scenarios need to be based on the IJN turn around time to launch another strike. The last of the first wave departed around 8.30 and an approx flight time back to the carriers puts it at 10.00am. So from approx 9.30 to say 10.15 or longer the recovery process would have been in full swing. The aircraft would need to be transferred below decks to clear for other incoming aircraft AND the second wave. Debriefing, checking aircraft for damage, csualties etc. would have taken time. Launch and recovery of CAP fighters.
Then their is refuelling, rearming, transfer back to the flight deck and launch, if this happened quickly it most likely would still have overlapped the return of the second wave and been delayed, the first of which would have been arriving back over the carriers around 11.00. Fuchida did not arrive back on the Akagi until well after 12.00, probably closer to 1.00pm to give his full report of events.

Therefore by the time all was said and done, debrief, refuel, repair, re-arm, co-ordinate a new strike, launch and flight time to Pearl it would have already been mid afternoon the returning aircraft could well have been returning after dark? or close to it. Big Risk I think. Probably only taken if carriers at Pearl and only damaged or if discovered near Pearl, in which case they would have gone after the carriers rather than PH.

How does this sound? with so many if's but's and maybe's, option 2,3 or 4 could apply in the poll I don't think option 1 would fit in my opinion.

Too many risks for another strike!
Mr.Wayne Little's View Point is perpectly right.

In my opinion,
Third wave is not main factor of Paicific War,
Third wave can not change anything.
No matter how Japanese couldn't win the war

The meaning of Pearl harbor is End of Japanese Empire.
When IJN decided to attack Pearl harbor, Whole thing is fixed.

Attaking Pearl harbor is amazing success of WW2 aviation history.
But it is also national suicide for Japan.

Even If third wave destroyed whole things in Pearl harbor,
Could IJN win the U.S forces in Pacific area?

For U.S Navy and Marines,
To win the war with Japan,
It's just a matter of time~~~~

Wayne is correct about the timing for the 3rd wave.

From the time the last plane from the 2nd strike is landed untill the time the first plane from the 3rd strike takes off would be over one hour, closer to two.

How many U.S aircraft would be able to oppose the third wave; if it departed at 1 p.m ? I know the Enterprise was arriving at the scene when the Japanese were departing, but how many aircraft did it have and how many operational fighters did Pearl Harbour have after the first two strikes?

To have a real idea you need to know the AA that was still operational at Pearl Harbour and the fighters available to the U.S forces. And then you have to take into account that the AA of the day was not going to be devastating to a medium level attack, if not in extremely large numbers it would only bloody the nose of the third wave without a decent number of U.S fighters present.

Wayne Little said:

If the Carriers were at Pearl at the time of the attack they would have been heavily targeted in the first place, and most likely sunk, they would have been sitting ducks! A third wave would not have been necessary figuring that they had eliminated the primary objectives, Carriers and other Capital ships.

Now, all scenarios need to be based on the IJN turn around time to launch another strike. The last of the first wave departed around 8.30 and an approx flight time back to the carriers puts it at 10.00am. So from approx 9.30 to say 10.15 or longer the recovery process would have been in full swing. The aircraft would need to be transferred below decks to clear for other incoming aircraft AND the second wave. Debriefing, checking aircraft for damage, csualties etc. would have taken time. Launch and recovery of CAP fighters..

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How long would it take to turn around 35 aircraft? (from each carrier). I would indeed depend on this, that's why I ask the question. If they could do this in about an hour, could they not launch them at about 11 and hold the second wave in the air until 11:30 or so?