Could the Luftwaffe survive against Allied attacks if the USSR had been defeated?

[Lucky13]

If Russia would have been beaten in '43, would this have had freed up more material etc. towards the Me-262, Arado-234, Horten-229 etc projects....got them in the air sooner in their intended roles?

 

[Erich]

to really take effect the 262 had to come in 1942

 

[Njaco]

Freebird, some stats from Dr. Price. Gonna condensed to just day fighter units, for your comparison.

May 1943
WESTERN FRONT
Luftflotte 3:
JG 2 - 128 servicable
JG 26 - 79 servicable
11./JG 54 - 9 servicable

Luftwaffenbefehlshaber Mitte (Reich defense)
JG 1 - 59 servicable
JG 3 - 20 servicable
JG 11 - 54 servicable
I./JG 27 - 24 servicable
III./JG 54 - 41 servicable

414 total servicable for the West (day fighters)

EASTERN FRONT
Luftflotte 1:
JG 54 - 78 servicable

Luftflotte 4:
JG 3 - 44 servicable
JG 52 - 61 servicable
10./ZG 1 - 7 servicable

Luftflotte 5:
JG 5 - 115 servicable

Luftflotte 6:
I./JG 26 - 30 servicable
JG 51 - 78 servicable
ZG 1 - 32 servicable

445 total servicable for the East(day fighters)

MED FRONT
Luftflotte 2:
JG 27 - 79 servicable
II./JG 51 - 29 servicable
JG 53 - 55 servicable
JG 77 - 17 servicable
ZG 1 - 14 servicable
ZG 26 - 32 servicable

Luftwaffenkommando Sud Ost
JG 4 - 40 servicable

266 total servicable for the Med / South area(day fighters)

 

[pbfoot]

In my opinion the area from the Franco german border would have been an Allied zone of control as it was the Luftwaffe was very selective in attacking 2TAF and 9AF missions which were being escorted by several hundred fighters even on smaller missions and that would not have changed what would have changed would have been the Strategic aspect . The German jets would been effective at least until 45 at which point the British and particularly US industries having been forced to ramp up the production and developement of jet aircraft something they were never forced to do

 

[Freebird]

Freebird, some stats from Dr. Price. Gonna condensed to just day fighter units, for your comparison.

LW 445 total servicable for the West (day fighters)

What would the Allied strength be at that point?

{counting only the long range fighters that could escort into Germany}

If the LW chose not to engage the fighters over france, the UK Spitfires would be out of range correct?

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Also note that a lot of auxilary fighter forces would be aviable (hungarian, slovakian, rumanian, bulgarian...)

That is a much interesting equation to throw into the mix. Also with Russians gone and Germany having supported Finnland, what are the odds that the very formidable Finnish airforce would have joined in as well.

 

[Njaco]

What would the Allied strength be at that point?

Not sure as my endeavour is the LW. But maybe Bill or Erich might have a numbers stat.

 

[Lucky13]

to really take effect the 262 had to come in 1942

If Russia was beaten in '43, things must have gone really good for for the Heer and Luftwaffe in '42 already right, I mean as we all know, Russia is no small country, right.....so, if things were going this well, I'd think that they'd speed things up a bit, especially those project that was in the works, or am I wrong in my line of thinking here?

 

[Erich]

I'm finding this thread very confusing or maybe I still have the terrible jet lag from Germany and not completely coherent in my thoughts

gents when is Russia defeated the ? once that is established then what facts and fantasy figures can come to light. we have to deal with the present at the time as well as the what-if(s)

 

[Freebird]

I'm finding this thread very confusing or maybe I still have the terrible jet lag from Germany and not completely coherent in my thoughts

gents when is Russia defeated the ? once that is established then what facts and fantasy figures can come to light. we have to deal with the present at the time as well as the what-if(s)

The Soviets are much weaker through the fall/winter of 1942, with the main resistance of the USSR collapsing in the spring of 1943, but with a sizable number of German army units "mopping up" throughout 1943. With very little remaining Soviet air opposition, perhaps 80% of the LW fighters 60% of the LW bombers could be withdrawn by May 1943 and sent to the west.

The elimination of the UK threat in the Med means that perhaps 60 - 70% of the fighters would be available to counter the Allied threat.

{However, most UK US air units that were sent to North Africa in 1942-1943 would be available in Britain instead}

 

[Thorlifter]

gents when is Russia defeated the ? once that is established then what facts and fantasy figures can come to light. we have to deal with the present at the time as well as the what-if(s)

Completely agree Erich. That's why I feel this could go either way before or after 1943. It truly was a different war at that dividing line. It switched from holding on because the enemy is strong to an offensive war because the enemy is beginning to lose through attrition.

It's almost two questions.

1. Could the Luftwaffe survive against Allied attacks if the USSR had been defeated BEFORE 1943

2. Could the Luftwaffe survive against Allied attacks if the USSR had been defeated AFTER 1943.

I think we all know the answer if it's #2. The only discussion could be how long Germany could hold out in a one front war at that point.

 

[JugBR]

I think it depends on when they beat the Soviets. IMO, I believe the line is 1943. Before that, the Luftwaffe would still have had significant numbers to put on only one front, which would have help to defend the factories.

After 1943, the allies advanced fighters and mass production would have drove Germany into the ground. However, I do believe it wouldn't have ended in 1945. All those men and resources on one front! wow.

Of course, I'm sure Hitler would have screwed up a one front war too!

i agree with you, the line is 43. if the situation changes before 43, and germany would fight just in one front, considering a quick victory over ussr, i believe the mass production advantage would be null. and allies would fight then against the main power of luftwaffe.

also, the afrika korps could have more supplies and panzer div. in that scenario, wich could allow germany to lock the suez channel. would be bad for the grat britain.

also bad would be a scenario where britons could be isolated in the islands, fighting against german raids, with most part of your armada in english channel and around the island to prevent a ground invasion.

that could allow german submarines to take control of north atlantic, making americans send more ships for that front, instead pacific, to combat the kriegsmarine and grant a supply of soldiers and weapons to england.

my point is the defeat of ussr couldnt grand a german victory, but they would be more closer of that. also england and usa would have much more casualties, and the air superiority wouldnt happend so easy and so fast.

 

[JugBR]

Completely agree Erich. That's why I feel this could go either way before or after 1943. It truly was a different war at that dividing line. It switched from holding on because the enemy is strong to an offensive war because the enemy is beginning to lose through attrition.

It's almost two questions.

1. Could the Luftwaffe survive against Allied attacks if the USSR had been defeated BEFORE 1943

2. Could the Luftwaffe survive against Allied attacks if the USSR had been defeated AFTER 1943.

I think we all know the answer if it's #2. The only discussion could be how long Germany could hold out in a one front war at that point.

if the losses and casualties in scenario 2 would be very similar of what really happened. and considering the "A bomb" factor. i think war would ends in 1945 same way.

but there is, you know ? its always the "if´s" of history... what i sure know is that could be a diferent kind of war for each scenario.

 

[lesofprimus]

gents when is Russia defeated the ? once that is established then what facts and fantasy figures can come to light.

If Germany had managed to defeat Russia in the Spring/Summer of 1943

I really do think it would have made a difference, not only from the units that were available to go back to Germany is Spring 1943, PLUS the number of aircraft that would have been assigned to the Reich and Germanys infused ground forces instead of going to Russia.... Normandy and D-Day would NOT have succeeded if Russia falls in the Spring of 43....

How many troops are the gonna be in Germany/France/Belgium etc etc instead of Russian soil???

I honestly dont think the bombing campaign against Germany would have been what it ended up being with all the additional aircraft and pilots, and increased German production available to them.... Alot od resources went to the Russian Front, not just aircraft frames....

All that sh!t stays in Germany....

 

[Parmigiano]

I agree with Les.
In this 'what if' scenario, there should have been so many troops, Panthers and Tigers with proper air cover available to defend France that D-day should have been at least postponed.

This also means that in 44 the kammerhuber line would have been in place and able to properly vector the fighters and place them in the right place to bounce the bombers, increasing dramatically the effectiveness of the 262.

Plus all the 190 built as fighter-bomber for the east front would have been easy to be built as fighters or bomber destroyers.

I don't think that the 262 would have been esential in 42 or 43, the prop jobs were very effective against bombers until the long range P51 were available in numbers. If the LW had available almost the double of 109 and 190 to hold the few months between the P51 menace and the time when the 262 was in operation, they could have done the job.
In this scenario you can forget to chase and shoot down the 262 in their landing approach: only the P51 had the necessary range and the 109 and 190would have been available in numbers to chase the P51 at low level.
The Allies would have need a long range P80 able to take off from England, fight over Germany and made it back.

 

[renrich]

The big difference would be in the Pacific War. Instead of going after the Japanese hammer and tongs, the US would have diverted resources to the ETO. FDR always considered the Third Reich the principle enemy.

 

[syscom3]

The big difference would be in the Pacific War. Instead of going after the Japanese hammer and tongs, the US would have diverted resources to the ETO. FDR always considered the Third Reich the principle enemy.

I don't think so. The war in the Pacific didnt require as many resources as the battle in Europe. The public was still mighty pissed off about the treachery of the Japanese, and public opinion wouldn't allow for FDR, Marshall and King to simply sit still in that theater.

Plus the USN always had the carriers to bring the war to the Japanese.

 

[drgondog]

The big difference would be in the Pacific War. Instead of going after the Japanese hammer and tongs, the US would have diverted resources to the ETO. FDR always considered the Third Reich the principle enemy.

I agree this and also Dan's observations above. The question for me is waht conditions do the Soviets leave their own petroleum industry and does the combined USAAF/RAF attack Germany's achilles heel starting with Avalanche... and take the losses necessary to cripple the oil/chemical industry.

Big question related to the battle for the air.. as the US in no position to have the battles in 1942 that it was able to wage in late 1943/early 1844.

 

[Freebird]

I really do think it would have made a difference, not only from the units that were available to go back to Germany is Spring 1943, PLUS the number of aircraft that would have been assigned to the Reich and Germanys infused ground forces instead of going to Russia.... Normandy and D-Day would NOT have succeeded if Russia falls in the Spring of 43....

How many troops are the gonna be in Germany/France/Belgium etc etc instead of Russian soil???

Well you figure if the Soviet Central government, command serious opposition collapses in the spring of '43 the Germans might leave 50 - 60+ divisions to mop up the partisans whatever. But the Allies were not ready to invade France until summer '44, and a large part of that success was the Russian had worn down the Axis by this point. Of course with the Axis holding all of North Africa there is no chance for invading Italy.

You figure at least 20 - 30 extra divisions would be in France, + probably another 20 - 30 in reserve in the south watching to see if the Allies try to land in Spain or Africa somewhere

Big question related to the battle for the air.. as the US in no position to have the battles in 1942 that it was able to wage in late 1943/early 1844.

Agreed, the real question is air superiority, without it no army succeeds.

What was the dynamic of the air war in the last half of 1943? {June - Dec} Were the German fighters superior to the long-range Thunderbolt Mustang? Was it superior numbers that allowed the Allies to win? Or were their aircraft equal to the Germans? Was the main factor attrition on Germany's airforce - {shortage of new pilots}?

 

[Lucky13]

Here's another question....

If Russia was conquered in '42 early '43, what would have happened to Stalin? I guess that Hitler would have had a manhunt out for him, to catch him dead or alive, if caught, would he put him in prison or have him shot on the spot? Also, with Russia beaten, would this also, maybe, add a fleet where Germany could help out Japan in the Pacific? If this would be the case, in which spot would the USN end up in that theatre?