German-Soviet peace 1942/1943, air war

[Kevin J]

Turkey - I give credit to michaelmaltby for reminding about the importance of the country.
In the scenario discussed, neither Axis nor Allies can allow Turkey to remain neutral for too long. Allies would be much more persistent than in real history in 1943 in the period from Adana conference to 2nd Cairo conference.
If we speak about the air war, the immediate benefits of allied Turkey for the Allies are new airfields. Probably the same for Axis who could attempt their own bomber offensive in the Middle East?

Rhodes to Haifa, 738 km, Suez 822 km. Turkey is no additional value to the Axis for bombing raids.

 

[Dimlee]

But Mersin to Haifa is 450 km. And ground offensive into Syria or Iraq can be supported.

 

[Kevin J]

But Mersin to Haifa is 450 km. And ground offensive into Syria or Iraq can be supported.

There's nothing in it for the Turks.

 

[Dimlee]

There's nothing in it for the Turks.

I suggest here that Turkey neutrality is annulled by Axis, by brute force as in Norway or by diplomatic pressure. Axis will hardly put Turkish interests before their own in the following events.

 

[Kevin J]

I suggest here that Turkey neutrality is annulled by Axis, by brute force as in Norway or by diplomatic pressure. Axis will hardly put Turkish interests before their own in the following events.

The Germans won't go into Turkey for the same reasons they never went into Spain. Mountainous with high plateaus. In Norway, they only won because we withdrew. Armistice with France rather than attempting to take the Massif Central, Brittany could have been held by the French Navy. The War on the Eastern Front, tank country, north European plain. Yugoslavia, the partisans held 20 German divisions down. Did they get far into the Caucasus, no, stopped by the mountains on the Black Sea coast, never got to Baku. The Turks would have slaughtered them.

 

[GrauGeist]

As I mentioned before, the prospect of regaining territory lost in WWI, and currently held by the British, would be a considerable bargaining chip to the Turks.

With the Soviets oit of the war, Germany would have better resources to bail the Italians out of their mess in North Africa and having Turkey as a member of the Axis would prove invaluable at securing the eastern Med - even putting sights on the Suez with the help of Japan, who was already within reach in the Indian Ocean.

Here's a map of the Ottoman Empire's extent (in green) by 1914.
The vast majority of land lost by war's end, was held by the British (and French), so dangling portions of that lost territory at the Turks would most certainly gain their interest.

 

[SaparotRob]

As I mentioned before, the prospect of regaining territory lost in WWI, and currently held by the British, would be a considerable bargaining chip to the Turks.

With the Soviets oit of the war, Germany would have better resources to bail the Italians out of their mess in North Africa and having Turkey as a member of the Axis would prove invaluable at securing the eastern Med - even putting sights on the Suez with the help of Japan, who was already within reach in the Indian Ocean.

In this scenario, might Germany make Italy a "protectorate" of some kind? Seeing as how Germany keeps bailing out their ally and Russia would no longer be a threat.

 

[GrauGeist]

In this scenario, might Germany make Italy a "protectorate" of some kind? Seeing as how Germany keeps bailing out their ally and Russia would no longer be a threat.

By 1941/42, Italy hadn't become a liability (yet), so I don't think that Germany would consider that an option like they did when Italy historically was losing swaths of ground to the Allies in 1943.

With the USSR out of the picture in '41/'42, Germany now has a considerable amount of men and material they can employ in North Africa and points in Europe, which in turn would jeopardize Britain's successes historically gained in the Med during that same time frame.

 

[Kevin J]

As I mentioned before, the prospect of regaining territory lost in WWI, and currently held by the British, would be a considerable bargaining chip to the Turks.

With the Soviets oit of the war, Germany would have better resources to bail the Italians out of their mess in North Africa and having Turkey as a member of the Axis would prove invaluable at securing the eastern Med - even putting sights on the Suez with the help of Japan, who was already within reach in the Indian Ocean.

Here's a map of the Ottoman Empire's extent (in green) by 1914.
The vast majority of land lost by war's end, was held by the British (and French), so dangling portions of that lost territory at the Turks would most certainly gain their interest.

View attachment 589629

No it wouldn't have done. The language of the Ottoman Empire was Arabic, the remnants of the Ottoman Empire was Constantinople under British occupation. The Turks had their capitol in Ankara, rose up against foreign occupation on their coast and Constantinople and got their independence (with Soviet assistance) from the Ottoman Empire.

 

[GrauGeist]

I have no idea what history book you're reading, but the relations between Turkey and the Soviet Union were strained right up to WWII. The Soviets even claimed parts of eastern Turkey (Armenia, etc.) as belonging to them.

Regardless, many nations wanted lost land back in their fold, which led to the shaping of alliances.
There is absolutely no reason why Turkey would not do the same.

 

[Kevin J]

I have no idea what history book you're reading, but the relations between Turkey and the Soviet Union were strained right up to WWII. The Soviets even claimed parts of eastern Turkey (Armenia, etc.) as belonging to them.

Regardless, many nations wanted lost land back in their fold, which led to the shaping of alliances.
There is absolutely no reason why Turkey would not do the same.

The Turkish version of events, in Turkish, with English subtitles. Being an American, you're probably watching the Holywood version.

 

[GrauGeist]

The Turkish version of events, in Turkish, with English subtitles. Being an American, you're probably watching the Holywood version.

Well, Dimlee presented an alternate proposition to the historical timeline, so I presented a theory backed by tangiables that would exist in that time period.

Now, true, I am an American, however I do have ties to both Bulgaria and Turkey. Add to that, studying military history (ancient and modern) for well over four decades, I do have a fairly good idea of the options that could have steered events in one direction or another.

And to add to that, I can present a point without name-calling or down-voting another's post - because when one starts doing that, it becomes evident that their position lacks substance.

Although I do find it somewhat amusing, so please, carry on.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

The Turkish version of events, in Turkish, with English subtitles. Being an American, you're probably watching the Holywood version.

And you can get point across in a civil non-antagonistic manner.

 

[Kevin J]

Well, Dimlee presented an alternate proposition to the historical timeline, so I presented a theory backed by tangiables that would exist in that time period.

Now, true, I am an American, however I do have ties to both Bulgaria and Turkey. Add to that, studying military history (ancient and modern) for well over four decades, I do have a fairly good idea of the options that could have steered events in one direction or another.

And to add to that, I can present a point without name-calling or down-voting another's post - because when one starts doing that, it becomes evident that their position lacks substance.

Although I do find it somewhat amusing, so please, carry on.

I'm sure every country bordering on Stalin's USSR had a strained relationship with them. Running a country is like running a business, you don't need a life time studying history to do it. Trump is a good example whether you love him or hate him. He's running a business.

 

[Kevin J]

And you can get point across in a civil non-antagonistic manner.

OMG the woke squad. In my days, you called a spade a spade. There's nothing in it for the Turks, nor the Bulgarians . Best to remain neutral, turn a blind eye to the illegal chrome smuggling. Take gifts from both sides. Join the winning side just before the end. Take more gifts. Promise everything, give nothing. Poor little Bulgaria has Communism for 45 odd years, same as occupation.

 

[GrauGeist]

Bullshit - pay attention.
Bulgaria lost a considerable amount of territory in the Balkan war with Serbia in 1912 they wanted it back. They STILL are pissed about Macedonia.

If you don't have a grasp of the historical events of the region, than perhaps sit back, observe others who KNOW about the events and STFU.

 

[Kevin J]

Bullshit - pay attention.
Bulgaria lost a considerable amount of territory in the Balkan war with Serbia in 1912 they wanted it back. They STILL are pissed about Macedonia.

If you don't have a grasp of the historical events of the region, than perhaps sit back, observe others who KNOW about the events and STFU.

Fuck you too. Yes, I am aware of what Bulgaria lost. You don't seem to be aware that the Ottoman Empire had fought a losing war against the Arabs and their British Allies in WW1. Turkey was a democracy, had freed itself from the the last remaining remnant of the Ottoman Empire and its European occupiers. I don't, and you can't come up with a business justification for Turkey joining the AXIS. Finland, another democracy, run by a general who no doubt was well versed in military history, was never an AXIS member, only a co-belligerent. It didn't do the Finns any good.Let me correct you now. I had been disagreeing with you. Now I've hit you with the dislike button for your arrogance.

 

[Dimlee]

The Germans won't go into Turkey for the same reasons they never went into Spain. Mountainous with high plateaus. In Norway, they only won because we withdrew. Armistice with France rather than attempting to take the Massif Central, Brittany could have been held by the French Navy. The War on the Eastern Front, tank country, north European plain. Yugoslavia, the partisans held 20 German divisions down. Did they get far into the Caucasus, no, stopped by the mountains on the Black Sea coast, never got to Baku. The Turks would have slaughtered them.

OK, let's assume that Germany is not interested in the Middle East in 1943 so does not see Turkey as a springboard for further advance to East or South.
However, Turkey is still a part of the Tripartite Alliance that gives Allies rights for military transit (under certain conditions). Germany is well aware of that and of diplomatic pressure put on Turkey by UK and US.
Will Germany allow Allies to establish airbases in Turkey and to threaten Ploesti and other targets? Rhetorical question, in my opinion.

 

[michaelmaltby]

... and the Black Sea is a no-contest zone ....,

 

[Kevin J]

OK, let's assume that Germany is not interested in the Middle East in 1943 so does not see Turkey as a springboard for further advance to East or South.
However, Turkey is still a part of the Tripartite Alliance that gives Allies rights for military transit (under certain conditions). Germany is well aware of that and of diplomatic pressure put on Turkey by UK and US.
Will Germany allow Allies to establish airbases in Turkey and to threaten Ploesti and other targets? Rhetorical question, in my opinion.

Greece wouldn't allow the Brits to establish such airbases in Greece, so an unequivocal no.