Hawaii

[renrich]

It is ridiculous to even speculate about the Japanese invading the west coast of the US, IMO. I started this thread with the thought though that if the IJN had sunk the US carriers at Midway, they could have attempted a lodgment in Hawaii. Looking at what the small strike from the fourth carrier(Soryu or Hiryu, I get them mixed up) did at Midway makes me shudder to think what would have happened if all of the Kido Butai carriers had gotten in a first strike against Spruance and Fletcher. Anyway assuming the US carriers are sunk at Midway, the IJN could have assembled a strike force of six or seven carriers as well as the surface ships, BBs, CAs and DDs and tankers and gone to Hawaii like the US did later at Rabaul. There the IJN could have established air superiority and eventually knocked out all of the US air. Navy and AAF and then demolished all the tank farms and fuel supplies. Any surface opposition by the USN including Saratoga, if she could get there would be brushed aside. American subs would be a hazard but being bombed in the daytime and with poor torpedoes they could not have done much. There were, I think, two divisions of Army infantry on Oahu as well as lots of artillery, Marines and Navy personnel, probably too much for the Japanese to attempt a landing at Oahu. So they invade one of the other islands with a small infantry force occupy the island and utilise the air field. Once the air field is in operation the IJN carriers can retire leaving the blockade of Hawaii to surface units and IJN subs. Eventually the garrison at Oahu is going to run out of fuel, beans and bullets. The only way the US is going to take back Hawaii is to send a full scale task force with carriers to invade. In the meantime the US subs can't use Oahu as an advance base, likewise the Pacific fleet, no help for Australia, no campaign in the Solomons, strength that was used in the ETO has to be diverted to the PTO. The Hawaii operation would have probably conflicted with Torch and maybe canceled it. The war is at least a year longer.

 

[syscom3]

Renrich let me see if I can break down your arguments:

Could the Japanese invade and take Midway after destroying the US carriers? Possibly. I say that because they had serious deficiencies in doctrine and eqmt in attacking a defended island. Look at Tarawa where a few heavy MG's mowed down the marines almost at will.

What would the Japanese have done with Midway after a victory? That is a question that not even the most ardent supporters of a Japanese victory can answer. The island is too far from Oahu to send their bombers without escort. Its too small to be used for much. Its way at the end of the Japanese logistics tether and outside of mutual air cover of the closest "other" airfields they had. For the US, Midway is within range of B17's and B24's, which would pound it mercilessly regardless of losses. And Midway to be considered tactically as an isolated outpost and the USN could surface bombard it at will.

What if the Japanese invaded one of the other islands besides Oahu? They could, but then again, just what are they going to accomplish? They will be a short distance from Oahu and the huge numbers of land based AC that could be arrayed against them. And more importantly, they wont be able to provide maritime support at all. This hypothetical force would be pounded into oblivion as its logistical support withers.

One thing is for certain. If Midway is invaded, the US takes it back a couple months later.

I woukld suspect that a smarter Japanese move would to fake the invasion of Midway and destroy the US fleet there, then make their thrust into the S Pacific at Samoa and Kiribati and cut the air links to Australia.

 

[timshatz]

I woukld suspect that a smarter Japanese move would to fake the invasion of Midway and destroy the US fleet there, then make their thrust into the S Pacific at Samoa and Kiribati and cut the air links to Australia.

That would be the smart thing to do. Secure their southern flank by isolating Australia. Then they are going to have to attack Australia. While I don't think the logistics of taking a continent were in the Japanese ability (either North America or Australia), I don't think it would've stopped them trying. Of the two attacks, Australia is the much more likely scenario.

Ren, only brought up attack on the US for two reasons:
1. Sinpac noted he had read something when he was younger about how Japan saw winning the war. It was a point that always had me wondering. How was Japan honestly going to win the war if the US didn't just give up (as was the plan)?

2. Where does Japan go after Midway? One of the reasons the US held 6 battleships back from the Midway battle (on top of speed problems) was the need to cover the West Coast. By attacking the West Coast, the Japanese could effectively isolate both Midway and Hawaii. Essentially, Island hoping in reverse. While we now know Japan had neither the logistical or productive capacity for such an act, it was not generally accepted as gospel in 1942. And the US strategists had to consider what the Japanese could do and not what they would do. The West Coast of the US, especially after the run the Japanese had (and in leiu of the attack on Pearl Harbor) was definitely an option. Not a good one for the Japanese, but still an option.

Getting back to the battle. I think the Japanese would've taken Midway. It would've been difficult but they could've gotten it done. First, after the US Carriers are gone, there is only the Airpower from Midway to worry about. It was not effective in strike capacity and destroying the runways would've ended that problem. There after, the affect of Naval Gunfire combined with determination to take the islands at any cost would've eventually brought a successful invasion.

That being said, Hawaii is tricker to do but a logical step (even given the above point about the West Coast, it would be more in line with the Japanese way of thinking to attack Hawaii after Midway). Sys has the right idea in attacking a smaller island before Oahu in order to establish an air base. The US has no effective carrier force left, so for the momment, air reinforcements are unlikely to the Oahu. But I don't think the US would pound the Japanese out of existence right away. Between the two sides, at some point in the Pacific, whether it is Guadalcanal or New Guniea, there is going to be a battle of attrition the Japanese will lose. Hawaii is a good bet that this will occur.

But the nuts and bolts of that fight (Air Battles, Naval Battles, Reinforcement runs by the Tokoyo Express) will be similarto those of '42/'43 and the really interesting point of the campaign.

 

[renrich]

Hmmmm, I thought I originally proposed taking one of the islands other than Oahu and basing the land based air there. Anyway, Tim if you won't give me credit for that I will move on. LOL According to Parshall, "Shattered Sword" I think, the original Midway mission for the IJN was that the attack was to lure the US carriers out so they could be sunk. The actual occupation of Midway was secondary to destroying those carriers. If the carriers were sunk, then Midway did not need to be taken in order for an invasion of Hawaii to be undertaken. If Midway was isolated and could not be supplied then it would rot on the vine. If Kido Butai is intact after Midway, the IJN could assemble a force of as many as seven carriers, the four Midway ships, the two from the Aleutian force and the carrier whose air group was decimated at Coral Sea. These ships could conceivably be ready to assault Hawaii by August-September. The only US carrier left in the PTO after Midway would be Saratoga, in repair on the west coast. The question would be if the IJN carrier force could overpower the land based air at Hawaii. The US would have very few surface ships to oppose the Japanese. Wasp could be sent from the ETO to reinforce Saratoga but that would be it. The primary air strength of the US in Hawaii would be B17s and they were ineffective against ships.