Hypothetical - NATO vs WP 1970s

[timshatz]

Depends who is in command though doesn't it? With NATO composed of the UK, Netherlands, Denmark, W. Germany Belgium - they sure don't want to use nukes in Europe.

My understanding is the Head of Nato was always an American. Or ground forces. Something like that. In truth, I am a little fuzzy on it (fuzzy on a lot of things this morning, good night but paying for it). The reason was the US commited most of the troops and assets.

But your point of use of nukes is a very good one. Politically, it is a no-go. Militarily, it may become neccesary. My understanding of the nuke scenario is the use is Tactical, not strategic. The most common use is for interdiction of supply routes of maybe (and this is a big if) the attack on an armored thrust. The interdiction is more likely as it is a non-mobile situation whereas finding and fixing a Tank Army has got to be difficult.

I have also heard of the used of tactical nukes in everything from torps to depth charges in use against US Battle Groups, Re-supply convoys or attacking enemy subs.

The problem with all the scenarios is, once the button gets pushed, even on a limited, local basis, it is impossible to stop the growth in yield and expansion of targets. Especially with a sustained loss situation with air assets, you get fewer shots at a target as your sortie rate drops (due to losses) so going up in yield and type of weapon is almost a natural occurence, that is after the first one gets used.

But the first one is the trick. Nobody is going to raise their hands and volunteer to do it, but it's probably going to happen. For instance, West Germany is not going to sign on to firing a nuke on West German soil but they may ok the use in East Germany on a supply/command target that is critical to an armored thrust running rampant in West Germany. Same might be true if the target is in Poland or Checz.

In short, the initial use of nukes wouldn't be cut and dried (lets nuke Moscow) but something that is more grey and lower yield/targeting than launching a city killing 3 meg warhead at a major population center.

IMHO

 

[parsifal]

We hade a little time (about 90 minutes) to get the war started, we decided to resolve the combat in and around hamburg as a starting point.

The attacking Warsaw Pact forces consisted 7 Divs: 4 Soviet (9G Tk, 12G Tk, 32 Mot, 94G Mot) and 3 East German(1, 8 Mot 9 Tk). These land forces were supported by 3 regiments of artillery, and 7 Bns of ZSU-23 AA. In the air the Sovietsw fielded approximately 100 strike aircraft and 54 Mi24 Hind attack helos.

NATO forces consisted of two West German Divs, 3 and 6 PG . They were supported by a battery of Nike Hercules SAMs and 15 Jaguar Light Attack a/c (RAF) .

WP fixed wing aircraft were able to effectively suppress NATO SAM defences, which enabled the Hindws to provide effective close support to the forces attacking into the city

The east Germans managed to force the retreat of the 16/6 Bdde, though with some losses. They captured Lubeck and Kiel, and threatened the northern flank of the hamburg defenders.

The Soviets attacked in two echelons, one directly into the city from the east, and second, following the initial assaults, that skirted and outflanked the city to the south and southwest.

The Hinds were decisive in forcing the retreat of the German forces to the North west of the city. Brekthroughs were achieved at two points (which has the effect in the game of reducing the effectivnees of the defenders in subsequent combats that turn. The RAF Jaguars provided some help, but not enough, whilst the flak resources of the PG Brigades themselves were just not heavy enough to deter the Hinds .

The following photographs shows the situation in this sector at the end of GT-1. I have also posted the TO&Es for the Soviet Tank and Motorized formations and the West German Pz and PG Brigades of the time.

It was a great evening, everybody had a lot of fun, though progress was slowas we had a lot to learn.

My opinion is that the results achieved so far are at least plausible. NATO was outnumbered by about 5:1 on the ground and about 10:1 in strike aircraft

 

[timshatz]

Parsifal, my guess is this is your Group 1 from the WP launching it's attack on the North German plain towards, well, I guess they are heading in the general direction of Antwerpt. Do you have a goal as yet or are you just letting it play out to see what the opportunities are? Is it the Rhine or a closer, intermediate goal? You look like you are pretty much have Hamburg finished with a sizeable force in the area around Bremen. By the looks of it, Nato forces in the north are reelling and Nato air has not had a decisive affect (or even anything more than an incremental affect) on the forces in and around Hamburg. It is somewhat discouraging from the Nato perspective but very attractive from the WP view of things.

Any idea on the losses for both sides? In general percentages? I was thinking if the WP can reinforce faster than Nato (or if the losses are not as severe), this thing is over. However, that will become more difficult the further west you go as the WP moves away from it's bases and Nato moves closer to theirs.

Did Nato do a fighting withdrawl or was did it break and move back west? It important, they could be trading ground for time figuring there was no way they could hold Hamburg anyway. They may leave a battlegroup in Hamburg with instructions to keep fighting as long as possible to slow things down.

Just a few ideas.

 

[Amsel]

Parsifal, do you know any good computer games that do the same thing as the board games. There seem to be a bunch of games out there but I can't tell one from another in terms of being any good. Not limited to WP/Nato, across the board decent strategic/tactical games.

I own several titles from Paradox Interactive that are fairly smart strategy games. Heres a link-

Games - Paradox Interactive

Hearts of Iron III is a pretty good WW2 strategy game.

I'm not too familiar with any other companies that produce PC strategy games, but am always looking.

 

[parsifal]

Parsifal, my guess is this is your Group 1 from the WP launching it's attack on the North German plain towards, well, I guess they are heading in the general direction of Antwerpt. Do you have a goal as yet or are you just letting it play out to see what the opportunities are? Is it the Rhine or a closer, intermediate goal? You look like you are pretty much have Hamburg finished with a sizeable force in the area around Bremen. By the looks of it, Nato forces in the north are reelling and Nato air has not had a decisive affect (or even anything more than an incremental affect) on the forces in and around Hamburg. It is somewhat discouraging from the Nato perspective but very attractive from the WP view of things.

Any idea on the losses for both sides? In general percentages? I was thinking if the WP can reinforce faster than Nato (or if the losses are not as severe), this thing is over. However, that will become more difficult the further west you go as the WP moves away from it's bases and Nato moves closer to theirs.

Did Nato do a fighting withdrawl or was did it break and move back west? It important, they could be trading ground for time figuring there was no way they could hold Hamburg anyway. They may leave a battlegroup in Hamburg with instructions to keep fighting as long as possible to slow things down.

Just a few ideas.

Tim, your apparaisal is pretty close the money. As the WP we have a flexible approach as to how we want to win....basically where the opportunity arises, we will pursue that avenue of attack. However our general aim at this stage is to swing througth Northern Germany,, get across the Rhine, before turning south and try and outflank the Ruhr urban agglomeration.

I think Hamburg is lost, and with that goes Denmark basically. The West Germans 3rd and 6PG divs need to pull west across the Elbe, which will be difficult and exhausting for some of the formations (particularly the 16/6 brigade, now isolated south of Lubeck....it has to cross a minor and a major river system and manouvre via a very circuitous path to get past the WP formations attempting to block its retreat). The WG 3+6 PG flanks will need flank protection,which can only be achieved by pulling units out of the defensive lines further south and forming a line from Bremen to the Elbe. I think the NATO players are likely to pull the 11PG XX and the US 4/2 Arm III out of NORTHAGs main defensive positions further to the south. They will need to rush the Dutch reserves from Holland forward in a hurry ( assuming these national forces are released - we dont know that yet) to try and stiffen this position, because the German and US forces are going to be simply too thin to hold that position firmly. And the Dutch ground formation have big questions hanging over them with regard to their combat effectiveness. They are among the least well trained NATO formations, and will almost certainly either crack or take heavier losses than the well trained WG formations.

Losses are not heavy unless a unit cannot or will not retreat. A unit cannot retreat if it is attacking, or if it has no clear path of retreat. This is affected by its trainiing level. Losses are measured in steps rather than numbers of men and material. A WP Div has three steps before going into remnant, whilst a NATO Div has four. However, depending on the training level of the formation, if it receives an adverse result from battle, it can either stand and take a step loss, or retreat. When attacking a unit cannot retreat, it must take a step loss.

In the battle last night, the East German tank formations took a step loss as an attacker whilst the West germans simply retreated.....but they came very close to losing and entire Brigade as the 16/6 Bdes retreat options became nearly impossible to find ( a unit with an adverse combat result that cannot retreat, must take a loss instead). In the air the RAF lost 6 jaguars, whilst the WP lost an Su74 and 4 Hinds (the loss of one SU24 is not enough to register as a loss in the game).


So, to summarize, NATO withdrew rather than stand and take losses. I would estimate losses to be several hundred WG men, and some material, to about 2000 EG and probably about 30-50 Tanks

Attacjhed are the VP levels as given in the scenario instructions for the game.

 

[timshatz]

Parsifal, sorry it took so long in getting back to you. I thought you might've gotten delayed with little one and finally went looking for your post. Low and behold, you'd posted and I'd missed it. Damn, I was looking for that post!

Ok, I guess a lot has gone on since your last one but I think it is interesting that the WG and other formations are trading ground for time. While that may be the result of your attacks, the lack of Nato air is disturbing. It is pretty easy to move aircraft around and effective interdict an airspace. If Nato really had a jones for that space up North, they'd have reinforced it by now, at least with some air assets and possible gone after the lines of communication in an interdiction mode. In short, be careful, somebody might be setting you up for a heavy flanking shot.

 

[timshatz]

I own several titles from Paradox Interactive that are fairly smart strategy games. Heres a link-

Games - Paradox Interactive

Hearts of Iron III is a pretty good WW2 strategy game.

I'm not too familiar with any other companies that produce PC strategy games, but am always looking.

Thanks Amsel, every little bit helps.

 

[parsifal]

We have now finally had the chance to complete another turn of the simulation. We are now at the end of Day 2 of the battle. The summary of losses for both sides were as follows:

WP

40-45000 men, 156 A/C (126 Mig-21, 4 Mig-17, 8 Mig-27, 18 Mig-23), 12 Naval Air (Tu-16s mostly), 2 x SS, 1 x FF.

The WP AFs also have 368 U/S aircraft, whilst NATO have none

NATO

15-16500 men, 118 A/C (54 F104, 12 G-91, 4 Mirage III, 16 F4E, 4 x F4D, 6 x Harrier, 5 Lightning, 7 x F-35 Draken, 4 x F-100, 6 x Jaguar), 2 x minor naval auxiliaries and 6 x Naval Air (F-104s). The F4 losses were serious, and were due to the USAF being spread too thinly, to cover all the air sectors.


In the air NATO won control of three of the four air sectors. They did not win control of the critical Northern sector


The WP lost 2 x airborne regiments outright, whilst the allies lost 6 x SAM Batteries, VI Corps HQ (Dk), 8/3 PG Bde, 2 Recon Bn (Ne), 41/4 Mech Bde (Ne). The remainder of the 3 PGXX was encircled and isolated.

Losses for both sides were heavy and serious, but the WP airforces are now just about on their last legs.


WP landed marine forces on the main Danish island of Sjaelland, but were frustrated in their attempts to capture Copenhagen and the critical ferries . Further to the south the EG V Corps crossed the Kiel Canal, at heavy cost, engaging the Jytland division, and 6 PG Div.

Airborne assaults by two regiments managed to destroy the key SAM batteries near Oldenburg, and then make a redoubt near to Willhelshaven. 4 Recon Bn (Ne) could not defend these batteries, and retreated with loss. I Corps (Ne) moved up and enveloped this bridgehead, but could not destroy it

2 GTA meanwhile attacked west of Hamburg. The formation managed to cross the Elbe near the Heligoland Bight, and destroyed the 8/3 Bde, and encircled the remainder of 3 PG XX.

This success allowed the remainder of the SNGF (Soviet Northern Group of Forces) to push further to the west. Their MLA was actually to the north and south of Bremen, which was largely captured, with the Dutch suffering serious losses and the Weser crossed though subsequent counter attacks by the BAOR forced them back to the eastern side of the river. As a result of these counterattacks, 11 PG XX and 26 FJ Bde managed to restore a line on the western side of the Weser Nth of Bremen. I Corps (WG) had suffered heavy losses, however.

These losses in the North forced the BAOR to abandon their positions south of Bremen along the Weser, and move north to reinforce the hard pressed I Corps . This movement north by the British resulted in a near catastrophe to the south , with the WP attempting to encircle the Belgians and 3 PG Divs. Though unsuccessful (thanks to the intervention by the US 3rd Armoured Div), the NATO formation in this sector (just north of the Sauerland forested region) were forced to relinquish Kassel and fall back towards Dortmund.

NATO suffered two serious political setbacks….the Austrians surrendered after Vienna was invested, though more than half the Austrian army defected and joined NATO anyway. The French decided to prohibit the movement of forces across the Rhine, allowing only one div out of their 5 div contingent to move up to the fray. Conversely a very large contingent of the FAF was placed at the disposal of NATO.

The WP air forces are not in good shape, though achieving air superiority over the North sector allowed them to inflict heavy losses on NORTHAG. There is a strong possibility the WP will initiate chemical warfare in the following GT, to maintain their offensive momentum, as their airpower begins to expire. The first reforger units have begun arriving, and major reinforcement for the USAF is imminent, including a second F-15 equipped TFW.

Some further images of the game as it currently stands

 

[parsifal]

And a few further images of the game

 

[parsifal]

A quick update. We completed to the end of the third day, withy some continued progress in the north . However WP losses are mounting, as NATO defensive lines firm up and the impacts of NATO Helo gunships begin to take effect.

Soviets pushed back the NATO lines a further 10 miles or so in the north by achieving brekthroughs in the area north of Bremen and to the approaches to Dortmund. NATO was forced to retreat in order to maintain the integrity of their line.

However as a general observation the the mobile war is slowing in the North, and the Soviets are beginning to to experience the first logistic problems. The arrival of two wings of F-111 bombers will excacerbate this i think.

In the south the situation remains slightly more fluid, as the NATO lines south of the US TO remains short of men. The arrival of the italians, a single division of the French and the WG territorials is hoped to check this advance

Denmark surrendered, and with that the war in the Baltic collapsed. The surrender of the Danes had a knock on effect, resulting in the loss of a further two WG Brigades, and the encirclement of a further three. These formations had been foolishly sent north to assist the Danes, and can now be considered lost. It was a major blow to NATOs reserve situation

The impact in the game by helicopter gunships is critical, and in this field NATO enjoys a significant advantage. This raised considerable discussion amongst the players, as to how important helos are or could be in a situation like this. Makes me wonder about the actual performance of the AH64s in places like Iraq


Game situation in pictures follows

 

[parsifal]

Tweo more images showing the situation in the far south

 

[BombTaxi]

Parsifal, do you know any good computer games that do the same thing as the board games. There seem to be a bunch of games out there but I can't tell one from another in terms of being any good. Not limited to WP/Nato, across the board decent strategic/tactical games.

Sorry to trawl back through the thread, but I can recommend Matrix Games and Shrapnel Games as places to start looking. Most of their games are tactical, but there are some brigade-level and upwards titles in their ranges. And the tactical games a re pretty good too

 

[timshatz]

Sorry to trawl back through the thread, but I can recommend Matrix Games and Shrapnel Games as places to start looking. Most of their games are tactical, but there are some brigade-level and upwards titles in their ranges. And the tactical games a re pretty good too

Thanks Bomb Taxi, I appreciate it.

 

[timshatz]

Parsifal, thanks for posting. Sorry I missed all the fun and games of the first three days. It is very interesting.

At this point, it looks like the WP is running out of steam. With heavy reinforcement coming up from the Reforger of NATO, do you have anything coming your way (as WP commander) that will help you? At this point, it could come down to who reinforces first and most. Shades of Bedford Forrest.

US reinforcement with Air is going to be tough. Especially with your air power dwindling.

Have read that the WP considered Nato Divisions about 1.5-2X combat power due to their Helicopters.

 

[parsifal]

The WP Pact offensive is slowing, no doubt about it, and NATO is even counterattacking in places (eg 3rd armoured pushing very slowly toward Kassel) but there are some Verdun style battles of attrition occurring. From GT-7 the WP start to receive a steady flow of air and ground reinforcements, averaging about 60 aircraft per GT, and about 3 or so Divs per Turn. On the NATO side, the WG army is beginning to receive territorial reserves, and there are Reforger units arriving over the next seven days. In the air the USAF receves another wing of F-15s, two wings of F-4s and two wings of F-111s. They receive two squadrons of A-10s and some A-7s and AV-8s. They now have AWACs and wild weasel to support their operations, and some of the casualties are returned due to the effects of ARVs and other repair services. Soviet repair and recovery capabilities are not considered too good in the game, and those F-111s are going to be deadly to the WP supply network.

If the WP can retain some semblance of logistic support, they could win this still. But every day that goes by, the allies are increasing their level of air superiority. Conversely, after about seven days, the WP will still be receiveing a steady stream of air and ground reinfocements, the allies virtually no air, and a much smaller level of ground reinforcement/replacement. Unless they can dislocate the WP supply network, they will have a hard time of it.

The ace in the hole are NBC weaponary. Only the WP can initiate their use, and so far they have witheld them. The reasoning is that a bit more attrition never hurt anyone, and for the moment the WP supply train is just holding. If those F-111s start to bite, the frontline units will have a few days of supplies with which to survive. there is a strong possibility that chemical, followed by nuclear warfare might be initiated at that point. This will completely alter the whole equation, but using these weapons too early will lessen their impact. Timing the right moment will be crucial to deciding the outcome of this battle


Its a very interesting scenario, and worth some discussion in the wash up. I look forward to people assessments, hopefully they will be forthcoming. I already am considering the impact of those Apache gunships....they are really devastating. In the gane, two squadrons have more firepower than your average division....is that a realistic assessment?

 

[syscom3]

Parsifal, what is the political reliability of Poland? Wouldn't Russia need more and more troops just to keep them inline?

And wouldn't it be interesting if naval assets are included. If a carrier is disabled, then those air units that are left can be included.

 

[parsifal]

We now know that the WP was a deeply divided alliance and the Poles were far more unreliable than was assumed when this game was designed. I will concede all of that. But then, some of the NATO countries have proven to be somewhat of a liability to the unity of the alliance as well. Look at the carry on France has made regarding the war in Iraq......games that involve political conjectures are always open to debate, and there is never any right or wrong answer.

In the game, political unreliability rules are addressed by a simple die roll....event "A" happens and the players have to then check the effects of that event. The WP Pact Player has been very careful not to trigger more than one of those events. Further checks would be required after the the initial decision to go to war. If any of the WP start to sustain too many losses, or NATO starts to win, or NATO had been able to hold Berlin, or NBC war breaks out, or a couple of other events occur (I forget exactly what), the WP must make further checks. Poland is probably as bad as Hungary for reliability....

As far as stationing forces in Poland or the other countries there are no rules as such. Its outside the scenario parameters I guess, though ther are more divisions from each of the contributors, all being withheld until later in the game.

NATO has done extremely badly in its reliability checks. The French wont cross the Rhine, the Dutch are suffereing morale problems, both the Danes and the Austrians have surrendered as soon as their capitals were threatened. The only real success enjoyed by NATO has been the full co-operation of the Italians, and they have 8 Divs to pour into the battle. They are sorely needed.

The Naval war only lasted two days. Both sides had substantial air resources, and the Danes contributed significantly to the effort until their surrender. With the loss of the naval air stations in Shcleswig-Holstein, and the surrender of Denmark, the remaining West German specialist naval and naval air forces were witdrawn from the Baltic, but thats where the WP must stop....they have run out of ground to conquer. We have commented that such an outcome is disappointing, and somewhat unrealistic, but its the way it is playing.

We do seem to receive some naval assets, in the form of the A-7s and the AV-8s (I assume these are USMC assets). We also receive a full Marine Div, but only after GT-14 (withdrawn from Norway I believe). I would have thought that if a carrier gets hit, it would almost certainly be sunk or suffer heavy damage. Look at what happened to major warships in the Falklands, if they were hit, they were out of the battle basically

Under those circumstances, the transfer of a CAG and its support elements would be unlikley. Remember we have only fought for three days in real time, I doubt that ad hoc decisions about redeployments couold be made within that time frame.


I agree however, having access to USN air assets would be a very handy resource

 

[syscom3]

Whatever happened to your wargame?

 

[vikingBerserker]

Just started to read this thread and I'm curious as well.

 

[parsifal]

Sorry guys for the late reply. A number of the players have been crook, and as we have had some pretty attrocious weather, and as the game is set up in my not so warm garage, we have postponed a lot of playing days. Wee are up to Day 5 of the campaign, and NATO is successfully counterattacking. I will post details in a day or so, and hopefully we will get back t o a regular metting schedule as the weather improves