It seems the WP attacks are losing some steam. Or at least not attaining the same results as earlier assaults. Any idea on why? If I had to guess, I would go with the assumption that supply losses, lack of air cover, extending supply lines, reaction from Nato are big factors. At least it seems that way.
How do you counter such a scenario? Your point about dogged attacks seems about all they can do. In short, hunker down, keep attacking and hope for the best.
I guess the basic question is, who will run out of ground reinforcements first? Failing that, can air power be decisive? It may have to be for Nato to have any chance of winning.
I don't see the French coming in until it is practically settled. If Nato really starts to lose, then they stay out. WP starts losing steam, they might come in. Is there a provision for this? It could be decisive. But with Denmark and Austria out of it already, it is hard to believe they will do anything.
The WP are losing the initiative, and NATO are now able to mount effective counterattacks. You questioned the wisdom earlier about NATO counterattacking, but for a number of reasons it is necessary for them to do that. The winner in the game is decided by the number of cities and regions controlled at the end of the game. And at this stage WP have done just enough to claim a marginal victory. This is not total war. Unconditional surrender is not a realistic option for either side. What this hypothetical assumes is that at the end of a relatively short period, the hot war will cool off, and some peace settlement would be worked out. With two countries (Denmark Austria) completely overrun, and a third substantially occupied (West Germany), the WP leadership could argue that they have some bargaining power….perhaps to occupy Berlin, for example. It's a situation similar to that attained by Israel after the six days war, and the occupation of the west bank and Golan.
My prediction is that WP will need to endure some rough handling for about 4-6 days. The initial land grab is now over, and the superior NATO technology is starting to bite and their logistical depth and improving organization starting to have an effect. For NATO they receive a further 3 or 4 reforger divs from the US, the Canadian Brigade receives enough resources to upgrade to a division, and the West Germans receive the balance of their landswehr units. The Brits send in two of their "Field Forces"…essentially weak Divisions, but high quality manpower. However whilst there are relatively few new formations as such, NATO does begin to receive replacement fillers….manpower and equipment to replace losses. These are the first of the reservists. The West Germans receive the most, beginning in GT-6, the Brits and the Italians receive about half as much each, beginning on Day 10, whilst the US receives relatively few also beginning Day 10. This means NATO needs to be careful with the Americans, they are vulnerable to unrecoverable losses.
NATO aims at this stage, I think, will be to firstly halt the WP offensive, and make the initiation of chemical or tactical nuclear warfare unattractive. By attacking the supply net, they impose combat penalties on the WP. Given that NBC attacks are represented in the game by combat modifiers in the game, but at a huge political cost, the advantages of initiating NBC warfare are negated by the supply problems.
A secondary objective for NATO will be to mount limited counterattacks, to peg back the territorial gains made by the WP. NATO receive more "points" for liberating cities than WP does in taking them, so even if they capture only a portion of the cities lost they will neutralize any bargaining chips the WP have gained so far.
For the WP all hope is not gone, far from it. All that's happened at this point is that the initial offensive is grinding to a halt, but the battle has a long way to go from here. From GT 7 through to the end of the game, WP receive a steady flow of reinforcements as their category II and some III formations join the battle. In all they receive about 50 additional Divs, with artillery and AA support. These formations are not as well trained or equipped as the front line gds units, but in an attrition battle they may have a decisive effect. From GT-10, the WP also start to receive replacement fillers, to rebuild their shattered formations. In the air the WP receive a steady stream of reinforcements, about 60-80 aircraft per GT, mostly MiG-21s and 23s and Su-7s and 15s. In the immediate term they have a large number of damaged aircraft, and must leave the ground forces to their own devices for a few days whilst these damaged units are made airworthy again. They need to rebuild their air force, and await the arrival of reinforcements. If the NATO heavy bombers (the F-111s mostly) can be thinned or slowed in their primary interdiction mission, and supply returned normal, the situation can be reversed. The supply lines will be further protected by the arrival of additional ADA units in the near future.
The NATO players had some very bad luck at the beginning of the game, with regard to the French. Essentially a political "random event", the French have declined to allow their main forces to cross the Rhine, unless those main forces are attacked by the WP (this does not include the single Div currently in Germany). This has without doubt a massive effect on the game, and is the subject of much debate. My opinion is that whilst it might be possible for the French to decline their support, this would not necessarily be a final, or last decision. The French would surely realize that the WP would not stop at the French border if they are successful, and would be considering their position with each passing day. For that reason, we may instigate a game "fix"(ie a non-standard rule) that allows the French position to be re-checked every couple of GTs or so.
WP have captured Munich as indicated.