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IJN Postwar Carriers?
- Thread starter Lucky13
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Admiral Beez
Major
Had Japan somehow avoided entry into WW2, presumably by caving to US demands to withdraw from China (likely after a violent internal revolt in the Japanese government and ouster of IJA influence), it would have been interesting to see how the IJN and its carriers would change by 1945. Even with free access to US and DEI oil, a peacetime Japan could not afford the military expenditure that brought it to have ten carriers in service by Dec. 1941 (Akagi, Kaga, Sōryū, Hiryū, Shōkaku, Zuikaku, Ryūjō, Hōshō, Zuihō, and Shōhō), plus three more under construction or conversion (Taihō, Jun'yō, and Hiyō), along with the ongoing construction of the Yamato-class battleships Musashi and Shinano, the light cruisers Agano, Noshiro, Yahagi, and Ōyodo, and numerous fleet destroyers of the new Yūgumo and Akizuki classes. So, I see a lot of rationalization by 1942, with half the IJN being scrapped. Shinano would have been cancelled outright, with the manpower heavy Yamato and Musashi serving short lives, while the rest of the battleship force was mothballed.
Once the war in Europe is over, I'd see Japan continue to rationalize its fleet to face the USSR and China alongside the USN. By 1945, the IJN will have disposed of the carriers laid down in the 1930s, and focused on building or upgrading something akin to four units of the Taihō class.
If Japan withdraws from China, they will presumably keep Korea, meaning there is no Korean War. And with no Japanese invasion of FIC, there may not be a Vietnam War. So, even the USN's postwar carrier, naval and overall military and Pacific strategy may look very different. Then again, we may see wars of independence in the DEI, Malaya, FIC, etc. that need IJN aviation involvement.
Once the war in Europe is over, I'd see Japan continue to rationalize its fleet to face the USSR and China alongside the USN. By 1945, the IJN will have disposed of the carriers laid down in the 1930s, and focused on building or upgrading something akin to four units of the Taihō class.
If Japan withdraws from China, they will presumably keep Korea, meaning there is no Korean War. And with no Japanese invasion of FIC, there may not be a Vietnam War. So, even the USN's postwar carrier, naval and overall military and Pacific strategy may look very different. Then again, we may see wars of independence in the DEI, Malaya, FIC, etc. that need IJN aviation involvement.
In the extremely unlikely event of a Japanese climbdown in summer 1941 (a civilian coup is even less likely given the control over Govt held by both the IJA and IJN and the radical elements within both services) it would not only be the IJN that changed. The effects on the historical USN would also be dramatic.
The big USN build up was to support a war in two oceans (hence the "Two Ocean Navy" description of the 1940 Act.) Ships from this plan were still being laid down in 1943. But if it needs to only fight in one ocean priorities can be changed particularly with the all out expansion planned in mid-1942. So just looking at the carriers:-
Pre-war ships - no losses.
Essex class CV - restriction to 11 ships ordered in 1940 and scheduled for completion 1944-46 as of Dec 1941. No real requirement in a European war. The other 15 orders are a reaction to the Pacific war from Dec 1941.
Independence class CVL - not required. Post PH invention to increase the carrier fleet fast.
Various CVE designs - not required in anything like the numbers produced if no Pacific War. Again all bar Long Island were post PH orders. Probably get the Bogues / Prince Williams but not anything else.
Midway class CVB - controversial ships from the start so who knows.
The same would probably happen across all classes of warship.
And no PH probably means the battleship remains king of the Fleet. So maybe the battleship programmes in both fleets survive the axe. For Japan, not having to finance a war in China helps their finances greatly.
The big USN build up was to support a war in two oceans (hence the "Two Ocean Navy" description of the 1940 Act.) Ships from this plan were still being laid down in 1943. But if it needs to only fight in one ocean priorities can be changed particularly with the all out expansion planned in mid-1942. So just looking at the carriers:-
Pre-war ships - no losses.
Essex class CV - restriction to 11 ships ordered in 1940 and scheduled for completion 1944-46 as of Dec 1941. No real requirement in a European war. The other 15 orders are a reaction to the Pacific war from Dec 1941.
Independence class CVL - not required. Post PH invention to increase the carrier fleet fast.
Various CVE designs - not required in anything like the numbers produced if no Pacific War. Again all bar Long Island were post PH orders. Probably get the Bogues / Prince Williams but not anything else.
Midway class CVB - controversial ships from the start so who knows.
The same would probably happen across all classes of warship.
And no PH probably means the battleship remains king of the Fleet. So maybe the battleship programmes in both fleets survive the axe. For Japan, not having to finance a war in China helps their finances greatly.
In a similar theme: scene from "The Man in the High Castle":
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-09-jCFs_fk
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-09-jCFs_fk
