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The question is how much historical production would have to fall if american raw materials , machinery and technology were not available through LL. Do you understand what that means in the middle of a war?
Britain would be unable to continue.
Guess he didn't know that you could easily turn the commonwealth into a self sustained autarchic block...in the middle of a war....
The context of this question was whether the Dominions had the capacity to pay cash for US armaments. As it turned out, it was cheaper and more efficient to use US equipment to win the war, than embark on a program of greater home production.
. Your original position on this was that without Lend Lease Britain was sunk, not that without any US production what would be the outcome. US production cannot be factored out of the global industrial equation.
So, unless the US was going to disappear off the face of the earth, or we were cut off by blockade from the US, the situation you are describing was never going to happen.
Now, you are also implying that we were dependant in our immediate war industries for components from the US. So in relaity, in answer to your question about what would happen to our war production if we were threatened with a cutoff from the US, it goes up actually
I would never deny that viewed from the overall duration, the british benefitted greatly in their war effort by having LL. It was cheaper to use LL equipment in many cases.
The original argument that led to this whole fraccus was that without "US Charity" Britain could not continue to fight and would be forced to surrender.
we are asked "well what would you do if there was no allied production. Without any US production, clearly the allies are in a world of hurt, but exactly how there would be no US production, or how the parameters of the argument all of a sudden could be changed to that have not been explained. '
how much historical production would have to fall if no american raw materials
correctSenator Nye and the America First committee's legislation takes effect - January 1, 1941 - but American companies in Germany (and occupied France) are building trucks for the Nazis
and GM and Ford Canada (as subsidiaries of US companies) are allowed by Congress to continue their activities in Canada and Australia (Holden).
But Senator Nye's legislation is overtaken in 11 months by Pearl Harbour (December 7, 1941) and Hilter declares war on the USA (per historical record). No neutrality for the US. Britain and the Commonwealth are very little affected by America's 11 months of neutrality and the USA is slower ramping up wartime production than it was in the real world scenario.
Britain had no interest in helping China
Frankly, for the Commonwealth having Japan China engaged in a protracted, mutually destructive war is probably the most desirable outcome.
Churchill will quite happily "throw China under the bus" without batting an eye.
So the Anglo-Dutch will sell oil supplies from Malaya/DEI to Japan, allowing them to concentrate on their conquest of China.
No embargo = no Pacific war in 1941 or 1942.
Sorry, Freebird, but that's not correct. Even through the end of 1941, the UK provided more financial support to the Chinese Nationalists than any other country, including the US. I have a source for this but can't get to it until next week.
If US policy became totally isolationist, then that would likely also extend to not exporting fuel and vital raw materials to other combatants, to include China and Japan. The net result would have been no US support for China but, equally, no fuel or iron ore for Japan which would inevitably have led Japan towards the "Southern Advance". Under those conditions, I don't see the British Commonwealth collaborating with the Dutch to sell vital raw materials to the country that may be attacking the allies' interests.
I agree with Buffnut. If things went as supposed, I can't see an American public agree to continue to ship supplies to an aggressor like Japan and not someone like the UK. Don't think it would last long.
One area that I dont agree with is that Japan would not enter the war. They entered the war, because they were being denied exports, and access to liquid assets.
The only way they might stay out, but still unlikley, was if the british empire ignored the trade embargoes and continued to sell oil to the Japanese.
But I doubt that would change anything. Australia continued to sell large amounts of iron ore to the Japanese right up until the outbreak of hostilities, and all they did was shoot it back at us ("pig iron Bob" a reference to premier Menzies sale of this material to an unfiendly nation)
If there was no Lend Lease, and the US withdraws from world markets in so many areas, then I predict many nations would increase their mobilzation arrangements to make up the shortfall. And Britains share of world export trade increases, instead oif the world driving around in Chevs and Cadillacs, they would buy Morris and Austins. With better acces to world markets, Britain cash flow issues improve.
However, without access to even cash and carry, not only woulf US balance of payments take a big hit, as their exports shrink to almost nothing, but Allied war production is also going to take a hit as well. Whilst I do not believe Britain would collapse...in fact I think they would do better in some respects....an atmosphere of non-co-operation is a bad thing for everyone. What US production there was would be poured into domestic needs, which makes the US stronger at wars outbreak, but slower to take off in 1942.
There would be no Tizard commission, no rapid mobilzation of US industries.
In the crucial area of nuclear research, US progress gets held back by at least a year, as Britain witholds its knowledge (part of the tizard commission). Whilst the allies develop centimetric radars, and develop VT fuses, US development is left behind.
Ther is no marriage of the Merlin to the P-51, or at least it is delayed.
In Austtralia we would not be abale to import any engines from the US, but we could, I think increase our home production of engines built under licence. If not there would be a delay of about 3-6 months as we converted those factories to the production of British engines....
Well I'll put forward the parameters to clarify the discussion, if there is no objection?
Here's how it might occur.
On Nov 5 of 1940 FDR loses the election and control of Congress to the isolationists led by Senator Nye the "America First" committee.
The incoming group promises to re-introduce strict neutrality laws, to "avoid entanglements in foreign wars".
* No armaments, ammunition, warships, aircraft or fuel may be sold to either side
* No loans of any kind may be made
* No American vessel may transport any soldiers or war materials for a belligerent
* US vessels may not carry passengers or materials of any kind into a war zone.
* Allied Axis warships or ships carrying arms or ammunition may not transit Panama
* The draft legislation of Oct 1940 is immediately repealed
* No further armaments contracts for the USN or USAF will be approved
They promise to introduce the legislation on Jan 1 1941, when they take office.
No contracts to produce war material may be entered after that time.
Any materials already paid for must leave by Mar 1, 1941, at which time export will be prohibited.
So the question is, how would the Commonwealth react, and how would things change.
".... No restrictions on Commonwealth use of US designs, but no new tech could be shared (IMO)"
MM
Britain immediately follows Lloyd georges suggestion that they use the BoB to make peace with Germany.
Churchill is replaced for his pro American stance + handing technology to America for no return.
Japan is given a free hand in China and support.
I am not being serious at all, but some people did want to use the BoB to make peace with Adolf.
At this point it's a bit too late for that.
So my gut feeeling from this is that the Russians will come out of this as the sole power in control of Europe. Britain will not be happy about that. They will have exchanged one form of European tyrrany with another.....