It's noteworthy how spineless and lacking in initiative the late Empire British were compared to the earlier Brits. There's a fark'n invasion fleet amassing in FIC and Formosa and we'll do nothing, in fact we'll employ willful deniability and ignorance by not monitoring this build-up. Now there's an invasion fleet sailing towards us, but we can't attack it because we're afraid of making the first move, when the act of sailing an invasion fleet IS the first move. Can you imagine the US taking this position if they'd discovered the Kido Butai a hundred miles off Hawaii launching its strike aircraft?
"Oh, maybe they're just exercising their fleet, I'm not sure, let's wait and see if they take the first shot?" No chance, the USAAC and USN would have attacked it without hesitation - in fact the USN did attack IJN submarines outside Pearl Harbour before the IJNAS strike began - what would Phillips have ordered if a couple of IJN submarines were discovered sailing outside the Singapore port? What were his ROEs?
It seemed the 1930s-40s Brits were always lacking any aggression or assertiveness, always hoping that the enemy will just leave them alone. Clearly, even though they now possessed the largest navy in the world, a large air force and credible army (and yes, they were busy in the North Atlantic, North Africa and Med), the demographic and economic catastrophe of the First World War had scarred many a British leader into a jelly-like state. Compare this to the British military and political leaders of the 18th and 19th Century, even as late as the 1890s Fashoda crisis the British were willing to march right into the face of an opponent and make them blink. But the world, including Tokyo watched a neutered, frightened Britain do nothing when Germany remilitarized the Rhineland in 1936 in clear violation of Versailles and the world had Britain's measure.
20th Century Britain needs some 18 and 19th Century British backbone. First of all, at the fall of France in May 1940, Britain needs to march into FIC (with a Free French general in front) before Japan does. And do it before you piss off everyone by sinking the French navy in July 1940. And this doesn't mean you need to deplete the forces in the UK then fighting the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic. FIC is defended by a relatively small, ill-equipped French force, and if well played diplomatically (such as Britain making sure a
Vichy general does not take over FIC) can be taken without a shot. But really what Britain should have done is when they offered to send the BEF to France in Sept 1939 Britain should have requested to send a smaller (mostly Indian, or even better French Canadian) BEF to FIC to offer similar support against Japan. With this in place at the fall of France, Japan can't invade in summer 1940 without fighting the Brits.
What Brooke-Popham. Phillips and Percival need is a firm tripwire ROE from London that does not require further reassurance or recheck - and make them known to the Japanese, Thais, DEI, FIC and the USA.
"If we see any IJN or IJA forces in Malay (or Thai) water this will be considered a violation of our territory and a state of war will be in place between Japan and Britain, and such forces will be forcibly engaged". And then move whatever submarines available from the Home and MTO to Terengganu along with your PBYs to keep an constant monitor of FIC ports. And on the assumption that their still going to invade, put the RAF in place to attack the invasion fleet. I'd also position Force Z with working radar (and with dedicated Buffalo cover) at Terengganu - it's no good sitting in Singapore far to the south when Percival predicted years back that the invasion will come via Thailand and northern Malaya. Put a RAF man in the radar plot room aboard HMS Prince of Wales to coordinate the RN/RAF response.