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I had heard a while back, don't recall the source, that the proximity fuse made its debut at Santa Cruz but I understand that didn't happen until some months late
Whatever the odds, based on carrier numbers, All CV vs CV battles produced significant casualties on both sides, with the more vulnerable IJN A/C generally being in somewhat worse shape at battle's conclusion.
An invasion of Hawaii was strongly favoured by yammamoto, and his staff,
You know, if we look at the carrier losses, Midway was pretty simple, 3 carriers lost at the start due to having flight activities going on the hangar decks, including excess ordinance lying around. As I think you mentioned, use of early warning radar by the Japanese after Midway would make this far more rare. The only later situations of this happening were when some of the US carriers were struck by kamikazes. The Japanese kamikazes did not attack in waves like standard airstrikes, but a few here, a few there but intermitently throughout the day.
I thought this was not a good idea, why waste planes in sporadic attacks of a few at a time? But looking at it deeper, it makes sense. One big issue is the Allies can either cease flight operations and drain their AVGAS lines every time a bogey shows up on the radar - or they can keep on with flight operations but be more vulnerable. And a few bogies are likely not to generate as much concern, plus there is a limit on how many dive bombing (or kamikaze) planes can attack a ship in any given instance of time. This means more planes do not "split up" the AA fire as much as one would hope. The Essex class carriers that took extreme damage from 1-2 bomb or kamikaze hits are good examples of this.
But aside from getting hit while conducting flight operation, carriers were not as fragile as it would seem. Even though they were not struck by airstrikes, Shokaku and the Taiho were also struck in the middle of flight operations, albeit with torpedoes and not bombs.
Lexington was also sunk in a similar way to the Taiho. Avgas fumes getting into the ship, then exploding later. I don't think it's a coincidence that both of these were closed hangar carriers - which the US got away from after the Lexington class. The open hangar types basically had rolled sheet metal doors all around the hangar instead of walls - making it far easier to open to ventilate, or jettison ordinance off the side. Even a hangar deck explosion was not as bad, as an open hangar reduced the "enclosed space" issue than magnified the effects of an explosion. And it was easier for another ship to assist in fire fighting.
I know we always look at the US as having better damage control, which made the IJN vessels therefore "more vulnerable". I think this is true, but their are other factors. Older ships were in general less resistant to fire and flood. Even if recently refitted, a carrier built in 1925 and refitted in 1940 is still not as damage resistant as a ship built new in 1940.
If you look at the Shokaku and Zuikaku, these were both pretty resistant to damage and escaped after being heavily damaged many times. The had a fairly thick armored hanger deck protecting the magazines and engineering areas, about 5.5"-6" vs 3"-4" for the Yorktown and Essex classes. They were also brand new at the start of the war. I'd also add their armored hangar decks compared favorably to the Kaga and Akagi, who's hangar decks were similar to the Yorktown class.
I do think overall Japanese carriers were less damage resistant - lesser damage control, but also if you look at the Japanese vs. US "fleet carriers", Japan had a much higher percentage of pre 1940 carriers. This though had much to do with the US out producing Japan in newer, more damage efficient carriers. The close hangar design the Japanese stuck with I think also contributed to the fragility of their carriers.
The basic problem with Taiho and Lexington was not their closed hangars but their very poorly designed avgas systems and it was avgas explosions outside their hangars that doomed both ships
The impact punches a hole in the hull which floods the forward elevator well and gives the TAIHO a 1.5 meter trim by the bow, but she maintains speed at 26 knots. The forward elevator, which was raised for launching operations is jarred loose and falls two meters, disrupting take-off operations and the torpedo hit cracks the av-gas tanks underneath it as well. As a result, free gasoline mixes with the water flooding the forward elevator well and av-gas vapor builds up in the space. Within a half-hour damage control has planked over the settled No.1 elevator and the remaining planes were launched. However, the gas vapor builds in the closed hanger and enclosed bow area and becomes serious. Efforts to free the mounting vapor by knocking holes in the ship's side or to ventilate the hangar are made.
At 1432 a tremendous induced explosion of gas vapor occurs forward, buckling the armored flight deck upward and blowing out the sides of the hangar deck. The precise force and cause of the explosion are somewhat ambiguous (see Note 1 for details), but the shock of the blast ruptured the hull below the waterline, and all power failed.
The first 3 IJN carriers lost at Midway were lost for much the same reason that Franklin and Bunker Hill were nearly lost; massive conflagrations that were started by bombs that penetrated the unarmoured flight decks into open hangars loaded with fuelled and armed aircraft. The lack of armoured containment systems around the hangars allowed the resulting fires to destroy or nearly destroy the ships.
I don't want to sidetrack the discussion, but Taiho could have ventilated her hangars by lowering both elevators allowing the air to naturally circulate. Instead they opted to continue air ops and turned on their forced air ventilation systems which forced the vapour into other areas of the ship which then doomed her when it exploded. Taiho sank from explosions within the hull that were under the waterline, yet her hangars were well above the waterline and although they did explode they couldn't have sunk the ship. Lexington's damage report states that the initial avgas explosions occurred forward of the forward elevator, outside the hangars.I know the initial explosions were not in the hangars - It was the AVGAS tanks being ruptured by torpedo hits. Where the closed hangars come into play is that an open hangar ship is very easy do ventilate - a closed hangar much more so tougher to ventilate. From Combinedfleet.com:
but Taiho could have ventilated her hangars by lowering both elevators allowing the air to naturally circulate. Instead they opted to continue air ops and turned on their forced air ventilation systems which forced the vapour into other areas of the ship which then doomed her when it exploded.
Taiho sank from explosions within the hull that were under the waterline, yet her hangars were well above the waterline and although they did explode they couldn't have sunk the ship
I hope you like bacon, lol. Really, this is very good. Let's see if we can climb a higher ladder, still. The Japanese kicked a hornet's nest, on that "date which will live in infamy." But let's go back, just a little further. If they were paying attention--and, you know, Yamamoto was, he "knew"--we were already turning the corner, coming out of our Depression. The "signs" were there. I'll just get right down on the street, 22nd Street, in Cicero, Illinois, my home town. We had a Western Electric plant, there, it was a four-story building. Even as late into our Depression as 1939, it was still a virtual ghost town. By 1941, it was employing around 60,000 people, in three shifts, around the clock, just making communications and related component-equipment. My grandmother worked there. So, too, did my dad, just before his induction. If they were paying attention, they knew they couldn't win this. And, there's possibly your strongest rationale for Yamamoto, and his aggressiveness. The others, naturally, are going to have colder feet. He "knew" our capability, much better than they.Who was going to make that decision? An invasion of Hawaii was strongly favoured by yammamoto, and his staff, and the general intent seems to have been to use a blockade of Pearl as some sort of bargaining chip at the expected peace talks, but apart from that, outright invasion had been vetoed by the army, and their agreement would have been needed to undertake the invasion. moreover it was also an operation also expressly refused by the Admiralty....Yammamotos boss.
He would have faced a court martial and disgrace if he had tried to pull it off. He needed to go back to the Imperial Council and get specific authorisation if he wanted to do that. Thats a possibility, but not as an immediate flow on from the operation. To give you a parrallel, in 1944, the USN favoured an invasion of Formosa over Luzon. Mac wanted to return to the PI as promised. Eventually he played dirty pool, went the president and overruled the Navy. What do you think might happen to nimitz if he decided to take Mac to Formosa anyway....things miliatry just dont work that way, not even for the japanese.
Quite apart from that the MI operation simply lacked the necessary troops to get anywhere in the main island groups.They had 5500 embarked, they already estimated they needed 45000 to invade. Further, for amphibious invasions, you just cant up and change targets like that. The invasion of Normandy....the detailed stuff, took nearly 7 months to prepare, even the japanese cant just switch targets a few days or hours before the event. Amphibious operations are highly structured and rigid operations. you have a preset plan and you pretty much are stuck with it. one of the great achievements of the US Marines, unsung and unnappreciated today, is that they developed techniques, still used today, that gave them a great deal of flexibility in being able to adjust landing plans and committment of reserves and the like. this allowed them to react very flexibly to changing tactical situations on the beach, and why everyone still thinks they are the best at what they do.
Its not so much what was rational, we know now that the US was never going to negotiate with the japanese. Its what the japanese hoped would happen, and flow on from a successful operation. As i pointed out a few posts agao, Midway as a plan was very much a compromise, that really please no one, and had virtually no chance of success in the strategic sense. The Japanese were quite adept at self delusion i can assure you.
What they hoped for in midway was the decisive battle, in which the USN was to be dealt a heavy defeat, and the USA thereby forced to the peace table.That was the ultimate goal of the MI operation. If the USN had declined outright battle, the target selection was designed to put the USN over a barrel anyway. The idea was to maintain surveillance of the only major forward anchorage in the pacific (or at least thats what the japanese assumed...In fact major fleet bases were being developed at Noumea, Brisbane and Auckland....not as big as Pearl, but still substantial). The general idea was that every time the Pacific Fleet moved into or out of pearl, the japanese would know. it was meant to be a dagger at the USNs throat. I doubt it would work that way. There has also been speculation that the incoming shipping....70 transports a month just to feed the population, would be targetted in a blockade operation.
None of this is relaistic, and the Japanese dont appear to have even considered how they might hold the island, but it was the general idea....force the USN into a fight it could not win, or attrition it by permanently placing it at a disadavanatge by knowing its wherabouts in advance.
This is too much japanese think for me. the japanese were wont to trying to second guess their opponents thinking all the time...offering sacrifices...thinking "if we do this, then he will do that". But there are no real indications that Yammaoto had a deper penetration rtaid than he already had undertaken. Its always a possibility, but some Japanese officers of flag rank already had cold feet about going this far.
My own opinion is that after a couple of months of trying to build the base, and trying to keep supplies going to Midway, the Japanese would have cut their losses, and abandoned the atoll. As a forward base it was untenable for them. The allies would have begun their attrition campaign, somewhere, and the japanese would have relised they needed to prepre for a long drawn out war. An early return to China might have been explored earlier, and/or the early invasion of India. This is all sheer speculation however. Factrs are we cant be sure about what might have happened. But further advance to hawaii seems most unlikely to me.
Based on what?My own opinion is that after a couple of months of trying to build the base, and trying to keep supplies going to Midway, the Japanese would have cut their losses, and abandoned the atoll. As a forward base it was untenable for them. The allies would have begun their attrition campaign, somewhere, and the japanese would have relised they needed to prepre for a long drawn out war. An early return to China might have been explored earlier, and/or the early invasion of India. This is all sheer speculation however. Factrs are we cant be sure about what might have happened. But further advance to hawaii seems most unlikely to me.
"I think it was Nimitz who asked, what the implications would be if he was killed....someone replied.....it would be like if the Japanese killed you (nimitz). The US command relaised he was irreplaceable for the Japanese navy, and took the opportunity to get rid of him."
Based on what?
The airbase at Midway was done before the war, including a completed hospital.
The allies finished already started, not new plan by mid-1943, so the Japanese would have captured already started work, not start from scratch.
The Japanese never left Wake which was less important than Midway.
You are trying to reduce the importance of Midway, for some reason, to make it less that it really was.
You are thinking too much in internet extremely short term information exchange type think. That was NOT around in the forties.
If the Japanese would be so moronic to abandon a major base only 1,500 miles from Hawaii, had they won and not the U.S.,then they would have been to stupid to successfully attack Hawaii in the first place.
I hate to burst your bubble, but Midway was ONLY useful as a waypoint, established originally as a fuelling station for trans-pacific passenger flights.Based on what?
The airbase at Midway was done before the war, including a completed hospital.
The allies finished already started, not new plan by mid-1943, so the Japanese would have captured already started work, not start from scratch.
The Japanese never left Wake which was less important than Midway.
You are trying to reduce the importance of Midway, for some reason, to make it less that it really was.
You are thinking too much in internet extremely short term information exchange type think. That was NOT around in the forties.
If the Japanese would be so moronic to abandon a major base only 1,500 miles from Hawaii, had they won and not the U.S.,then they would have been to stupid to successfully attack Hawaii in the first place.
Based on what?
The airbase at Midway was done before the war, including a completed hospital.
The allies finished already started, not new plan by mid-1943, so the Japanese would have captured already started work, not start from scratch.
The Japanese never left Wake which was less important than Midway.
You are trying to reduce the importance of Midway, for some reason, to make it less that it really was.
You are thinking too much in internet extremely short term information exchange type think. That was NOT around in the forties.
If the Japanese would be so moronic to abandon a major base only 1,500 miles from Hawaii, had they won and not the U.S.,then they would have been to stupid to successfully attack Hawaii in the first place.
If you cant supply the island, then what use is it? Basic logistics is what you're forgetting. Midway is several days sailing from the nearest Japanese base. Midway is also only 6 hours flying time for B17's and B24's to pummel it.
I can also imagine that in August 1942, the first US counter offensive would be Midway.
And with the Aleutians in mind, tell me, just how much of a tactical success was the Aleutians? It was such a stunning success, that it had nearly a zero impact on the Pacific war.
Well, ok...the Aleutian campaign accelerated the Alaska highway project...lol