Since this is an international forum,any concern about whats going on in the Ukraine?

[The Basket]

that might be bad. Rightly or wrongly, the Russian leadership still view Eastern Europe as their sphere of influence. Perhaps not the countries outside the former USSR, but certainly those countries that were formerly under their control. If the US start to project their forces and influence into the region any further than they are, they are playing a very dangerous game. this is Cuban missile crisis allover again, but in reverse.

The Russians are motivated and serious about this issue, and they wont brook any ducks and drakes games from the Americans, I am sure.
I disagree with how Putin is going about this, but not what his point actually is.

If the Yanks are going to do this, they had better be prepared for a full scale conflict with the Russians. Maybe no WW3, but still on a scale like Iraq. It WILL be ugly.

If Russia wants war then what? If Putin invades Ukraine then what? The Russian economy has gone into reverse already. Sanctions maybe wishy washy but no western country is going to invest in Russia now. some former WarPac and USSR countries are now in NATO. So they have to be defended at all cosr otherwise it aint worth spit.

 

[GrauGeist]

That's the sticky part of the game Putin is playing.

He is banking on appeasement to get his way. He knows that the U.S. is war weary and the people probably won't support a war, no matter how limited, after all these years of being involved in the middle-east.

He also knows that few of the western European countries have the stomach for an all out war. Only the countries that got out from under Soviet rule will actively resist his encroachment.

The "seperatist" actions going on in the eastern Ukraine are remarkably similiar to the Gleiwitz incident, and allows Putin to justify his encroachment on the Ukraine.

 

[fastmongrel]

I am beginning to wonder what Putins end game is. Exactly what does he gain from getting the Ukraine back, as far as I know theres nothing in Ukraine thats of any strategic or material value. Is he pulling the old dictators trick of going to war to mask a problem at home.

 

[Glider]

The Ukraine was known as the breadbasket of the Soviet Union plus the east does have a lot of heavy engineering and mining.

 

[The Basket]

Putins end game is a mighty Russia surrounded by subjugated states.
He has to be stopped or he will follow through.
Ukraine is not going to join NATO or the EU. Mr Putin will see to that.

 

[GrauGeist]

And now, much to my surprise, I read that there is trouble in eastern Latvia. It seems that "seperatists" (wearing green, unmarked uniforms) are at it there now, too.

 

[parsifal]

If Russia wants war then what? If Putin invades Ukraine then what? The Russian economy has gone into reverse already. Sanctions maybe wishy washy but no western country is going to invest in Russia now. some former WarPac and USSR countries are now in NATO. So they have to be defended at all cosr otherwise it aint worth spit.

I dont think they want war, but I also think the russians view any part of the former SU as their essential interests, for which they are not prepared to compromise. They will fight if forced to do so.

As far as economic sanctions....i doubt it. The so-called EU sanctions dont target organizatrions, they target individuals....15 people to be exact. that is unlikely to have any long term effect on the Russian economy. US sanctions are far more wide ranging and effective, but at the end of the day, the Europeans want their energy, and the Russians have it. Nothing, least of all a recalcitrant and irresponsible Ukraine is going to get in the way of those basic home truths.

i dont like this any more than the next man. But the time for ideological responses to a very pragmatic reality are over. We in the West need to realistically appraise and acknowledge as valid the Russian interests as well as our own, and make adjustments to our responses to them. The Ukrainians are not our problem, despite all this gibberish about being in NATO. They dont have the same background or values as us. Basically they are on their own, and need to adjust their responses accordingly. tough love, but true. we should stop running around making out we are the worlds moral conscience, and look after our own interests for a change. In the same way as Cuba required the Russians to acjknowledge US vital intersts, we have to do the same in the ukraine.

I dont condone what is happening, but neither do i see it as any of our business to start fighting other peoples fights for them.

 

[Torch]

Well how about that,the Russians are messing with Odessa now,I mentioned that back on page 2. They have control of the surrounding seas with Crimea and with Odessa if it falls a major gas hub,,,not good.

 

[parsifal]

I agree. Whilst i acknowldge the legitamacy of some of the Russian claims, they are acting really badly and aggressively. We need to make a decision though as to whether making a stand in the ukraine is worth it. Personally I think we draw a line at the 1945 border. Anything on the old Soviet side is theirs, Anything outside is off limits. Thats a more plausible and defensible position to take.

 

[GrauGeist]

Personally I think we draw a line at the 1945 border. Anything on the old Soviet side is theirs, Anything outside is off limits. Thats a more plausible and defensible position to take.

I don't think that would be a good idea, either.

Russia should leave it's old cold-war conquests alone. Putin laments over the loss of the Soviet Union and has said, on many occasions, that it should be rebuilt.

Saying that the Russia can swell back to it's post-war borders is exactly what he wants. And so once he has all his "leibensraum", what stops him there? Why not push a little harder and see what happens? Russia, historically, has always had their eye on Afghanistan and Finland, too. So after those two countries get gobbled up and added to the reborn Warsaw pact collection, we start shaking our finger and scold him and move the "do not cross this line" even further back.

Russia has disputed territory with Japan, perhaps appease Putin and hand that over...then there's Alaska. So hand that over and appease him all for the sake of "Peace in our time".

How far back do we move that line?

 

[The Basket]

Putin lamemts the loss of the USSR like a long lost love.
He doesnt see Russia moving forward as a modern nation but as a timewarp relic.
Maybe he saw only the good side of Soviet Union.
Putin cannot be allowed to get away with it. Yes the west need Russia but a friendly Russia.
If Putin wants the cold war again then we have no choice other than to treat him as an enemy.
To give in means his appetite for destruction grows with the conquest.

 

[GrauGeist]

Also, the west coast of the U.S., especially California, has seen an escalation of Russian bomber flights. Especially that noisey old cold war nuisance, the Tupolev. There also has been overflights of Guam, in the Pacific.

These have been the highest since 1990.

Two things cross my mind here:
One, Putin is putting on a multi-purpose show that's intended to be a demonstration of "Russian might" while doing recon at the same time. (no big deal, they use to do it before, no surprise here)

Or, he's using these flights as a distraction meant to draw attention away from something else.

Putin might be a power hungry relic from the Soviet era, but he was former KGB and is well versed in subversion/shadow war. My bet is on the second option mentioned above...

 

[fastmongrel]

My partner is Latvian are people seriously saying that the West should throw her country and her family away to appease Putin. I cant believe it is being said by idiots sitting comfortably in there nice safe far away country that they will happily throw democratic stable countries which are dragging themselves up to 1st world status to the arms of a despotic ****nut who believes in a glorious fantasy Soviet past. How can anyone be so dismissive of peoples lives do you idiots want the blood of journalists, feminists, human rights campaigners, lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transvestites, jews, hippies, the mentally ill, union members and anyone that that dead eyed bastard doesnt like on your hands.

You can feed a Lion but what happens when the food has run out and the Lion is still hungry.

 

[Njaco]

fastmongrel, cool it. There is no need to bash people. The Mods have let this thread roll along, but if it gets nasty it will be closed and vacations given out.

Last warning.

 

[Torch]

Fastmongrel I have relatives in Poland who are not happy with whats going and who have been thru the communist experience that left a bad taste in their mouths. I don't think anybody wants to throw morsels to the hungry Bear.A real war will turn out nasty for all sides and unfortunately those border countries will probably suffer the most, To me the sanctions being handed out are not enough but it's very obvious that Europe likes their flow of gas.I don't think anybody saw this happening,everybody was focused on radical terrorism and Al Qaeda. If this was the case the "allies" intelligence really failed to fore see this. Fast Mongrel what would you suggest to do?

 

[GrauGeist]

I also have a vested interest in this situation, for several reasons:
Because I don't want to see Europe ravaged by another war

I have several friends (forum included) that live in and about Europe

And most importantly, my Sweetheart is Bulgarian and her family lives on the Black Sea coast (city of Burgas) and surrounding areas. They lived through communist times, she even had to serve in the compulsory "guard" that was required of pre-college kids (this is also why I don't give her much trouble, she is VERY proficient in shouldered weapons ) and none of them have anything good to say about living under the Soviet thumb.

If NATO, UN, Mad Mothers or anyone else had enough huevos, they would descend into the Ukraine en-masse and form a huge buffer between Russia and Ukraine proper. Russia may have a considerable military (on paper) but if every nation sent a sizable force (not just a small squad of advisors or whatever), then Russia would be staring down a serious presence. Think of it as the "Water Buffalo" effect, when the entire herd moves shoulder to shoulder to ward off a pride of Lions. It works.

Either that or have China do the same thing with Russia over their frontier, demanding that Russia hand over a large swath of frontier that has ethnic Chinese speaking populations. Bet Putin wouldn't like that very much, would he?

In either case, Putin wouldn't be bullying an under-funded military or angry civilians throwing rocks, they would be looking at well equipped, heavily armed opponents that could do serious damage to his military, his goals and his economy. And perhaps bring about an end to his aspirations of being Stalin reborn.


Also, it is most appreciated that the mods have let this thread flow along, as it is a real-world concern and I see we've all had a great discussion without it descending into a political cesspool.

 

[bobbysocks]

I am beginning to wonder what Putins end game is. Exactly what does he gain from getting the Ukraine back, as far as I know theres nothing in Ukraine thats of any strategic or material value. Is he pulling the old dictators trick of going to war to mask a problem at home.

he gains a valuable warm water port.....a buffer zone......and a partner in his economic community....and a foothold further into europe. also iirc a lot of the gas lines and stations are in that area...so they are more secure from his perspective. lastly he dipped his toe ( head first actually ) to see what the world opinion and reaction will be. it is an old commie tactic...probe and if there is too much resistance retreat, regroup, and retry later or in another area. he has everything to win and not much to lose IF he plays this smart....either the world will give in to his whims...he will diplomatically negotiate a settlement that favors him, or he will negotiate a retreat and let his kremlin spin doctors use the propaganda to make him like a good guy...a reasonable man who is given more to talk than to agressive actions ( in otherwords total BS ). IF he isnt smart or lets his ego get the best of him...or totally screws up the analysis of the situation...Russia will suffer and he will probably be ousted sooner or later...but i dont think he is that dumb.

 

[Glider]

IN the short to medium term I think Putin is and will lose. Countries and companies will be less likely to invest in Russia and finally (I do hope) the European countries will take security of power seriously and Russia will lose a) markets and b) its only weapon, the threat of power cuts.

 

[The Basket]

If Putin is an opportunistic operator then he may walk away with his spoils.

If Putin is an ideologue who is following his Soviet star...its trouble.

Powerful men with dangerous dreams. Bad medicine.

 

[parsifal]

My partner is Latvian are people seriously saying that the West should throw her country and her family away to appease Putin. I cant believe it is being said by idiots sitting comfortably in there nice safe far away country that they will happily throw democratic stable countries which are dragging themselves up to 1st world status to the arms of a despotic ****nut who believes in a glorious fantasy Soviet past. How can anyone be so dismissive of peoples lives do you idiots want the blood of journalists, feminists, human rights campaigners, lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transvestites, jews, hippies, the mentally ill, union members and anyone that that dead eyed bastard doesnt like on your hands.

You can feed a Lion but what happens when the food has run out and the Lion is still hungry.

I apologise if my comments caused you offense. Didnt mean for them to have that effect. latvia has had its share of rapings, lootings and pillagings since the dark ages, from both east and west. when one nation loses we all lose I guess, but it is hard from an Australian perspective to see the relevance or importance of us shelving out yet more Australian blood or treasure to fight someone elses fight that far away. It will make no difference to us, terms of trade wise, whether Putin, or some other demagogue is in charge of Latvia, and in the end, whatever we do, wont make a difference to how the minorities are treated. .

However, having said all that, this whole thing stinks of Munich allover again. And lets not forget Ben Franklins words...."If we give a little liberty, to gain a little security, we will lose them both". In the global community of today, philosophically you can apply that to cross border situations like this.