A single-stage Merlin could produce about the same power at sea level and, likely be decently close up to it's critical altitude. The single-stage engine might even make a few more hp down low since it is not driving the same supercharger and therefore uses less power than the 2-stage engine supercharger.
After that critical altitude for the single-stage, the single and two -stage engine will stay decently close until the altitude where the pilot changes supercharger gears in the 2-stage aircraft. Then, the 2-stage guy will pull away dramatically and continue to perform quite well until his critical altitude, after which he will gradually lose performance like a normal engine does until he reaches the altitude where the max power he can make is just the power required for level flight. That will be absolute ceiling.
The above assumes the pilot has oxygen and/or a pressure cabin or he will likely pass out before reaching critical altitude.
Edit:
The above is theoretical and makes some assumptions. The assumptions made are as follows:
1. Both engines are running the same fuel.
2. Both engines are running the same boost.
So, a single-stage Merlin 45 made 1,480 hp at 12,500 feet.
A 2-stage Merlin 63 made 1,710 hp at 8,500 feet, and did so be virtue of running more boost due to have an extra compressor stage.
These engines were about a year apart, and development usually results in better numbers up until the limit has been reached. This assumes a real development effort and not just an experiment.
But, in real life, they didn't follow assumption 1 and 2. In WWII, Merlins were cleared for more boost on a VERY regular basis. If you look at the single-stage engines and 2-stage engines, almost every new Merlin model gave an increase in boost and HP. Not EVERY one, but most of them. By way of example, the Merlin 45M could make 1,580 hp and the Merlin 61 only made 1,565. But the Merlin 45 was well-tweaked for HP and the Merlin 61's main intent was to make better HP up a lot higher. It DID that, but the Merlin 45M was the superior engine at 3,000 feet ... assuming you were flying a Spitfire at 3,000 feet, that is. If you were in Mk. IX, you were much more likely at 18 - 25,000 feet.