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Backing down in China is their best option, which will require the ouster of China-hawks from the Japanese government (maybe a IJN coup) and some reasonably executable exit. That's the discussion that needs to take place between Japan and the US, someone in the US needs to offer Japan a face saving way out of China. Heck, let Japan keep Korea and Manchuria and open the oil taps again and Japan may well join the Wallies. Might as well make some use of those shiny new carriers.Strike before running out of resources and cash or give in to UK and USA demands. I don't think Japan would back down from their China acquisitions. Japan was in a far more weakened state in early 1945 and didn't back down then.
Churchill was already or always worried about Soviet expansionism. So a strong Japan in Manchuria on Russia's backdoor would be positive to Churchill. Also independence initiatives in India, Burma and Malaya will be tamped down, and Hong Kong is safe, likely Suez too. The British Empire in the east may last another few decades compared to its collapse in 1947 to 1960.I could see Winston Churchill going along with that quid pro quo "for the greater good". At least Korea. There had been much made of Japanese conquest in Manchuria in the press and newsreels.
If Japan's not yet at war with the USA I assume the Philippines don't need liberating.My war scenario would be wait for the Americans to try and liberate Philippines
I disagree, had there not been two armed camps, I'd argue the Chinese would have been able to fend off the Japanese.Japan's timing of the invasion of China was unfortunate, as the war between the communists and nationalists was put on hold to fight the intruder.
Had there not been two armed camps, the Chinese may not have been able to fend off the Japanese.
Your post reinforces my belief that Japan just needs a face saving and reasonable exit from China. If Japan postpones its planned commencement of hostilities against the USA, Britain and DEI until spring 1942 they might get their chance. The US, UK and USSR is at war with Germany and their erstwhile "ally" is on the ropes. Japan needs to make an offer to join their former British allies.The US demanded that Japan initiate the pull out from China "immediately" and gave Japan the option of doing so in a manner such that in 3 months time it would be clear that it would not be practical for them to reverse course and move back in to China even if they wanted to. Japan's reply was the time span required was "unreasonable", primarily due to the need to 'change the mind of the [Japanese] people', a requirement which was oriented more toward the 'manifest destiny' group in their government and military. The Japanese Ambassador communicated this to the US State Department several times in the last few month before the war, and the US knew they were serious about it due to the intercepted and decoded communiques (ie Magic) between the Japanese Foreign Office and the Japanese Ambassador to the US.
The more reasonable members of the Japanese government were willing to pull out for two reasons:
Hey Shinpachi,
Do you know if any of the people in power thought that an ~immediate victory in China was remotely possible?
But to what end beyond more barren territory and unwilling people to subjugate? There's no known or exploited oil, tin, rubber, copper or aluminum in 1930's China. And China is purely an IJA affair, the IJN wants some fame and input.It's no one but Hirohito himself that believed the victory.
As long as Japan had been able to concentrate upon the war in China, not relying on the oil from the U.S. of course,
And China is purely an IJA affair, the IJN wants some fame and input.
The war had been going for almost a decade before the Japanese invaded.I disagree, had there not been two armed camps, I'd argue the Chinese would have been able to fend off the Japanese.