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They're waiting three and a half months. It's not a huge span of time. Maybe Japan is waiting to complete the two rapidly-building Junyo class carriers. But I might not be able to give you a reason you'll be satisfied with - I'm okay with that.OK, why would the Japanese wait? They're running out of oil and they don't have compromise built into their mindset.
True, but I don't think the Japanese thought they needed those two carriers to succeed. They had a large enough strikeforce to pull off the attack on Pearl Harbor and were simply unlucky that the USN carriers were at sea. Had the USN's carriers been tied up alongside at Battleship Row then it would have left the Japanese with a crushing superiority in the PTO.They're waiting three and a half months. It's not a huge span of time. Maybe Japan is waiting to complete the two rapidly-building Junyo class carriers.....
On the contrary, your offerings seem well though out and considerate, sir......But I might not be able to give you a reason you'll be satisfied with - I'm okay with that.
If in April 1942 the USA is at war in Europe (which I suggest will be so by Jan-Feb 42) those in Japan who still want war may see an opportunity with the PTO empty of heavy USN (and RN) ships.True, but I don't think the Japanese thought they needed those two carriers to succeed. They had a large enough strikeforce to pull off the attack on Pearl Harbor and were simply unlucky that the USN carriers were at sea. Had the USN's carriers been tied up alongside at Battleship Row then it would have left the Japanese with a crushing superiority in the PTO.
And we in the west can likely miss the Korean War and Vietnam War. I wonder if India will remain in British hands into the 1950s.Japan is out the war and keeps Korea and Manchuria. Pretty fair deal.
And the empire-hungry, conquest-driven, exploitation-intent military government stays in power, with dreams of world domination intact, to keep WWIII looming on the horizon?So a negotiated withdrawal to say 1931 borders or a pretend withdrawal.
Japan pretends to withdraw and America pretends Japan withdraw. Oil and scrap metal flow again. Japan is out the war and keeps Korea and Manchuria. Pretty fair deal.
And replace them with WWIII in Asia through most of the 1950s.And we in the west can likely miss the Korean War and Vietnam War.
...only at gunpoint.Maybe Japan will leave China
Dream on!if America leaves Philippines.
Agreed, but conversely every month's wait demonstrates to the Japanese both that the Germans have fatally overstepped and that the US industrial might is matched with a willingness to fight.
A victory for diplomacy as a policy over war weakens the IJA's dominant position in the government.I agree, andI think maybe the Japanese militarists even understood this, and they didn't want the opportunity for war to slip through their fingers.
As long as we sense threat from Japan (they maintain their "empire mania") we hang on to the Philippines.I am intrigued by the idea of the Japan out of China - US out of Philippines deal, with both sides likely to drag their heels. If there had been no WWII, how long do you think before Philippine independence?
OK, why would the Japanese wait? They're running out of oil and they don't have compromise built into their mindset. The only way I could see this playing out was if the Japanese secured oil supplies from Soviet Russia in a kind of Eastern Molotov Agreement. It is valuable to the Soviets as it ensures they can bring troops from Manchuria to fight the invading Germans, and also because any Japanese threat is mainly to the USSR's long-term ideological enemies, the colonial powers and the USA. With oil supplies secured by Soviet Russia, the Japanese could continue their conquest of China, which would take a good few years, then review the status of the West. If the Allies have finished Germany by then, Japan can agree a peace with China under her thumb. Would a war-weary Britain want to go to war with Japan over China? Unlikely. And if Roosevelt has died, would Truman pursue the same policy against China given the Allies now face a Soviet occupation of half of Europe which Roosevelt had unintentionally made happen?
The "Empire Mania" experience comes fully equipped, complete with blinders and ample Samurai Spirits! Step right up! Get your tickets here! Banzai!If they would have taken stock of the areas in which they were deficient, and projected things out to a war where everything might not go right, they would have plenty of reasons to delay war.
I agree, and the Japanese militarists, especially the otherwise idle IJN will be itching to use their shiny new carriers and fleet somewhere.I agree, andI think maybe the Japanese militarists even understood this, and they didn't want the opportunity for war to slip through their fingers.
America in the Philippines is a necessary throttle on Japan.America in the Philippines is a direct threat to Japan.
And this is to be replaced with even more brutal Japanese colonialism? Their value system had no provision for "liberated" peoples, only "conquered", hence contemptible, peoples.Part of the Japanese schtick is western colonialism and how they enslaved Asia.
And you leave the war machine, the "empire mania", and the frenzied political atmosphere intact, at the cost of future conflict with an even more powerful Japan? I don't think so.So you throw a bone you do a deal. You allow the Japanese to save face.
"We will, of course, require provisioning and oiling from HM's supplies, as ours are cut off, and since our carrier operations are so much more advanced, we will require operational control of HM's aircraft carrier task forces and their integration into our fleet. We presume that is acceptable, no?""we wish to once again fight alongside our British friends against the Germans, and to this end our fleet is approaching Ceylon to join your efforts, and with your permission will continue to Suez."
As long as it's not nuclear or involves the west, let them fight it out.And replace them with WWIII in Asia through most of the 1950s.